StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

More correlations, nothing new
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Some codenames, i remember reading some of them on fami but idk at this point, the third one is new?
Those codenames reference more than 1 thing by themselves.
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I know it's not definitive yet, but all this really does make me feel a bit better regarding a H1 2025 launch, no matter how long Nintendo wants to drag out the reveal waiting game.
Word. If the Switch 2 follows the original Switch’s reveal to release timeline of 4.5 months (October 20th - March 3rd), then the latest they could reveal is February, for a June release. May has been a release month for Nintendo before, so the latest they could reveal is January.

There’s also the possibility that the timeline could be longer for the sake of maybe gauging pre-order numbers to use as data to enstrenghen their launch day/week/month forecast.
 
I wonder why Sony and Microsoft still follow the traditional model where they reveal new consoles like 1-2 year before release, is it because those companies are more willing to placate investors by announcing new hardware as soon as possible even if it negatively impacts sales on their current consoles?

This is sort of a question of business models, which might be a little off-topic here, but I think it boils down to their mutual competition, the kind of a product they're making, and the sorts of risks that these companies are willing to take.

On the mutual competition side, they really need to be matching each other on releases as closely as possible because these consoles have been the most direct competitors for generations now. If Sony lets Microsoft launch their next gen console significantly before, that could risk losing playstation owners who want next gen now. And vice versa. But also, launching significantly before might cause problems with getting the AAA publishers of the world really leveraging whatever new capabilities they have. So for both companies, they want to launch at almost the same time, but just before the other, which leads to an incentive to announce earlier to get that edge. and that flows to an equilibrium of launching uncomfortably early

On the product itself, these consoles haven't really changed qualitatively over the years because the design has matured. The controllers are (almost) the same between generations, and there's no "gimmick". Nintendo as we know likes gimmicks (which we love), and a gimmick makes it really important to make a big splash and not leak anything to get the biggest surprise in the marketable period. Sony and Microsoft don't have that incentive, at least to nearly the same extent. Oh, a new Playstation was launched? Ok, I'll mentally increment the register where I store the current generation. Out with PS5, in with PS6.

On the risk side, announcing early has the downsides of setting a timer and the conditions for a crunch in the run-up to release, as well as cannibalizing existing sales. The audiences for these consoles are not the same "blue ocean" type of customers that Nintendo spends a lot of effort and attention on, so I don't know of how many new system sales they expect to make in the run-up to a new generation anyway. Also, the sorts of games that people buy for their Xbox/Playstation are not necessarily the kinds of games that are so easily cannibalized. Think of the number of annual or near-annual AAA releases, and think of sports games which are only meant to be played the year of their release. And regarding the timer and crunch, I think their respective pedigrees in consumer electronics (sony) and the cut-throat american technology industry (microsoft) means that they're much happier to take a big swing well before mass production has begun.
 
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Not hiding cause the only thing I'm going to say is I agree that Nintendo's remarks about scalping are basically meaningless. Of course they want production to equal demand - so any reduction in scalping would only be a byproduct. They're definitely not going out of their way to eliminate it.
 
For the OLED I believe it was reported that there was a month gap between screen shipments and assembly
Sorry my phone's battery as I was looking for the source but here we go:


Samsung Display Co. will start mass production of 7-inch, 720p-resolution OLED panels as early as June with an initial monthly target of just under a million units, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters. The displays are slated for shipment to assemblers around July, the people said

June 2021 -> mass production of the OLED panels

July 2021 -> shipments to assemblers

October 2021 -> Launch

Of course this was for a revision so it is not 1:1 but still interesting nonetheless. The OLED still sold 4m units in its first 3 months on the market.
 
With regard to Death Stranding, since a port of that seems possible now. I know it was PS5 exclusive, but did the Director's Cut add anything that was "built with PS5 in mind," in the same way FF7R's Intergrade add-on was?
 
I think indies will continue to target OG Switch and how prolific and successful they are will come down to how back compat works.
We know all current Switch games will run on Switch 2 if you already own them, what's a bit less clear due to vague wording is what is accessible on the eshop for new entrance. will it only be a curated list of Switch games that will show up on Switch 2 or will the eshop for Switch in its entirity be accessible.

So if an indie is targeting Switch/Switch2 do they need to submit two versions to two different shops or will their one entry in the eshop work?
Can't rule out weird policies like requiring two different versions if there are Switch 2 enhancements rather than one version that scales up or down based on hardware.

I really hoper Nintendo adhere to the K.I.S.S. principle with their new store.
Anecdotally, as an indie at a studio, I can say it’s becoming harder to target Switch 1. I would personally love for us to be on Switch 2 since I think that’s where our audience is
 
Couldn't they go with a trial and error aproach?

I'm out of depth here, but I imagine it wouldn't take long for the layer to find something which is clearly not a Maxwell instruction, mark it as "not-a-shader" and move to the next file.

Or is the sheer number of files inside the NSP so big that it would take forever?
They may do something like this, honestly, looking at file headers and the like. But games can generate shaders dynamically - even if you converted every on disk shader, you'd still need just-in-time translation.

The only issue with JIT translation is stutter, and the causes of stutter in emulation are less of an issue here. So I'm confident it can be solved, in at least 90% of cases.
 
Anecdotally, as an indie at a studio, I can say it’s becoming harder to target Switch 1. I would personally love for us to be on Switch 2 since I think that’s where our audience is
For your sake, I hope they fix the UI for the eShop so you can have some visibility.
 
With regard to Death Stranding, since a port of that seems possible now. I know it was PS5 exclusive, but did the Director's Cut add anything that was "built with PS5 in mind," in the same way FF7R's Intergrade add-on was?
The Digital Foundry ran it on their "mock Switch 2" and it ran better than the PS4.

Would Sony do it? If the mass audience can't tell the difference between 1440p and 4K or fine with current gen graphics around 1080p. Would they give Nintendo an alley oop?
 
With regard to Death Stranding, since a port of that seems possible now. I know it was PS5 exclusive, but did the Director's Cut add anything that was "built with PS5 in mind," in the same way FF7R's Intergrade add-on was?
I mean the only thing I could think of is the use of adaptive triggers, but its absence doesn't deter the game experience.
The Digital Foundry ran it on their "mock Switch 2" and it ran better than the PS4.

Would Sony do it? If the mass audience can't tell the difference between 1440p and 4K or fine with current gen graphics around 1080p. Would they give Nintendo an alley oop?
Well Death Stranding is already on iPhones (well 15 Pro/Pro Max) and iPads with an M1 chip or higher so I don't see why Kojima would rule out the Switch successor
 
Nintendo released this FY’s semi-annual report on Friday (local time). Something strange about their “work in progress” inventory level (as of 2024-09-30) made me do a double take. To explain it better, I compiled all WIP numbers in the Switch era:

jkLbR55.png

(unit: million yen)

Immediately one can see that the WIP inventory in September was abnormally high, dwarfing even the pandemic induced high (March 2021) and new model prerelease boosts (March 2019 for Lite, and September 2021 for OLED). It seems to indicate that by the end of September, Nintendo had begun Switch 2 assembly or at least started processing the Sw2 materials from their suppliers. I suspect that a presumably higher BOM also contributed to the elevated valuation of WIP inventory.

If the WIP inventory’s 9,030% increase (vs. 6 months ago) was in fact due to Switch 2 preproduction, Nintendo may make good their promise to counter scalping through an ample supply.
 
Nintendo released this FY’s semi-annual report on Friday (local time). Something strange about their “work in progress” inventory level (as of 2024-09-30) made me do a double take. To explain it better, I compiled all WIP numbers in the Switch era:

jkLbR55.png

(unit: million yen)

Immediately one can see that the WIP inventory in September was abnormally high, dwarfing even the pandemic induced high (March 2021) and new model prerelease boosts (March 2019 for Lite, and September 2021 for OLED). It seems to indicate that by the end of September, Nintendo had begun Switch 2 assembly or at least started processing the Sw2 materials from their suppliers. I suspect that a presumably higher BOM also contributed to the elevated valuation of WIP inventory.

If the WIP inventory’s 9,030% increase (vs. 6 months ago) was in fact due to Switch 2 preproduction, Nintendo may make good their promise to counter scalping through an ample supply.

Maybe they're stockpiling Alarmos.

Seriously though, interesting find.
 
Nintendo released this FY’s semi-annual report on Friday (local time). Something strange about their “work in progress” inventory level (as of 2024-09-30) made me do a double take. To explain it better, I compiled all WIP numbers in the Switch era:

jkLbR55.png

(unit: million yen)

Immediately one can see that the WIP inventory in September was abnormally high, dwarfing even the pandemic induced high (March 2021) and new model prerelease boosts (March 2019 for Lite, and September 2021 for OLED). It seems to indicate that by the end of September, Nintendo had begun Switch 2 assembly or at least started processing the Sw2 materials from their suppliers. I suspect that a presumably higher BOM also contributed to the elevated valuation of WIP inventory.

If the WIP inventory’s 9,030% increase (vs. 6 months ago) was in fact due to Switch 2 preproduction, Nintendo may make good their promise to counter scalping through an ample supply.
Wow thanks for the sharing ! and that's some crazy high numbers
 
Nintendo released this FY’s semi-annual report on Friday (local time). Something strange about their “work in progress” inventory level (as of 2024-09-30) made me do a double take. To explain it better, I compiled all WIP numbers in the Switch era:

jkLbR55.png

(unit: million yen)

Immediately one can see that the WIP inventory in September was abnormally high, dwarfing even the pandemic induced high (March 2021) and new model prerelease boosts (March 2019 for Lite, and September 2021 for OLED). It seems to indicate that by the end of September, Nintendo had begun Switch 2 assembly or at least started processing the Sw2 materials from their suppliers. I suspect that a presumably higher BOM also contributed to the elevated valuation of WIP inventory.

If the WIP inventory’s 9,030% increase (vs. 6 months ago) was in fact due to Switch 2 preproduction, Nintendo may make good their promise to counter scalping through an ample supply.
not to speculate one level too far, but Switch OLED was announced 07/21 and launched 10/21, right? so taking a wild swing at pattern matching, that would imply 01/25 announcement and 04/25 launch for Switch 2. I would have said plus or minus a few months since our sampling rate here is once every 6 months, but actually that lines up with what has been speculated about already.

Edit: Rereading your message, I think I got myself confused. "WIP inventory" means what exactly? is there a reason why you should think of 03/21's numbers as being unrelated to Switch OLED?
 
Wow thanks for the sharing ! and that's some crazy high numbers

Yeah that's a good catch the more I look at it. That has to be Switch 2 and if that's the level for September 2024, it probably indicates a first half 2025 launch at least.

Of course the wild card in that whole scenario is assuming the software library available for 1st half 2025 would be to Nintendo's liking (ie: no more delays of major software).
 
Yeah that's a good catch the more I look at it. That has to be Switch 2 and if that's the level for September 2024, it probably indicates a first half 2025 launch at least.

Of course the wild card in that whole scenario is assuming the software library available for 1st half 2025 would be to Nintendo's liking (ie: no more delays of major software).
April-May is still clearly on the line I think yeah
 
Maybe they're stockpiling Alarmos.
You’re right that a portion of the WIP inventory number could be attributed to the Alarmo. Since it’s priced at $99 and sold out quickly, its share might not be too significant.

Edit: Rereading your message, I think I got myself confused. "WIP inventory" means what exactly? is there a reason why you should think of 03/21's numbers as being unrelated to Switch OLED?
1) In a company’s financial report, there are three categories of inventory: raw materials, work in progress (WIP), and finished goods. My post above was specifically referring to only the WIP data. 2) IIRC, Bloomberg reported that Samsung began producing OLED panels for Nintendo in June 2021 and shipping them to assemblers (Foxconn and Hosiden) in July. So it reasons that the WIP inventory of March didn’t include the OLED model.
 
You’re right that a portion of the WIP inventory number could be attributed to the Alarmo. Since it’s priced at $99 and sold out quickly, its share might not be too significant.


1) In a company’s financial report, there are three categories of inventory: raw materials, work in progress (WIP), and finished goods. My post above was specifically referring to only the WIP data. 2) IIRC, Bloomberg reported that Samsung began producing OLED panels for Nintendo in June 2021 and shipping them to assemblers (Foxconn and Hosiden) in July. So it reasons that the WIP inventory of March didn’t include the OLED model.
Oh dang, so that puts the absolute enormity of this WIP into scale. Wild! Absolutely wild.
 
You’re right that a portion of the WIP inventory number could be attributed to the Alarmo. Since it’s priced at $99 and sold out quickly, its share might not be too significant.


1) In a company’s financial report, there are three categories of inventory: raw materials, work in progress (WIP), and finished goods. My post above was specifically referring to only the WIP data. 2) IIRC, Bloomberg reported that Samsung began producing OLED panels for Nintendo in June 2021 and shipping them to assemblers (Foxconn and Hosiden) in July. So it reasons that the WIP inventory of March didn’t include the OLED model.

I mean I meant the Alarmo bit as a joke. I'm sure it contributes to the WIP number, but surely it can't be that high.

I doubt Nintendo even manufactured like 50k Alarmos, that's almost the dictionary definition of a niche product that has no track record. It's not even a normal retail release.
 
I think indies will continue to target OG Switch and how prolific and successful they are will come down to how back compat works.
We know all current Switch games will run on Switch 2 if you already own them, what's a bit less clear due to vague wording is what is accessible on the eshop for new entrance. will it only be a curated list of Switch games that will show up on Switch 2 or will the eshop for Switch in its entirity be accessible.
I know their wording was a bit weird, but it would be super dumb to arbitrarily not list games that are purchasable (somewhere else) and usable. I remember the 3DS eShop had DSi content. Was anything left out of there?
Do we have a guess what number of units Nintendo would like to have available at launch?
I think switch was 3-4 million, that won't be enough this time I guess 🤔
Switch was 2.74m for its first month. Wii and Wii U's launch quarters were over 3 million. The most Nintendo has ever had for a launch quarter is 3.61m with 3DS. The most anyone has ever had for a launch quarter is 4.5m for PS4 and PS5.
 
Is it confirmed it will be as thick as Switch 1?

Within a milimetre, pretty much, yes, ~14mm thick. It's not a chunky thing.

Do you think we'll get a factory pic of the final unit? It seems security is tight

I certainly don't think that's likely - we already got a "late" prototype, and security has probably gone way up since then.
 
So I've probably said all of this before, but just to collect my thoughts on the subject, here's why I think Nintendo will take a different approach to packaging cross-gen games from Sony and Microsoft:

There are basically two core assumptions. The first is that Nintendo is going to continue prioritizing the offline experience in a way that Sony and especially Microsoft just don't. This is to say that there won't be any required downloads to play games in offline modes. One could argue an exception for downloading an alternate version of games for the new hardware, but this is where the second, admittedly somewhat more speculative assumption comes in: Nintendo is not going to want to force installs for physical copies. For someone with a cartridge of an existing Switch 1 game, having them download an entirely new version for Switch 2 upgrades is tantamount to forcing an install.

With these assumptions in mind, it makes the most sense to me that, instead of having separate Switch 1 and Switch 2 versions of games, Nintendo is more likely to go for a more unified, "fat binary"-style approach where you have a single build of the game that supports both platforms. There would probably be two categories, "Switch 1 with benefits" games that just run under BC with all limits removed and the ability to check which platform they're running on, and "fully native cross-gen" games that contain everything necessary to run on both platforms, possibly somewhat subdivided internally for security and/or logistical purposes. This approach would increase file sizes a little bit, but far less than trying to cram two fully separate builds of the game on the same cartridge together.
 
Nintendo released this FY’s semi-annual report on Friday (local time). Something strange about their “work in progress” inventory level (as of 2024-09-30) made me do a double take. To explain it better, I compiled all WIP numbers in the Switch era:

jkLbR55.png

(unit: million yen)

Immediately one can see that the WIP inventory in September was abnormally high, dwarfing even the pandemic induced high (March 2021) and new model prerelease boosts (March 2019 for Lite, and September 2021 for OLED). It seems to indicate that by the end of September, Nintendo had begun Switch 2 assembly or at least started processing the Sw2 materials from their suppliers. I suspect that a presumably higher BOM also contributed to the elevated valuation of WIP inventory.

If the WIP inventory’s 9,030% increase (vs. 6 months ago) was in fact due to Switch 2 preproduction, Nintendo may make good their promise to counter scalping through an ample supply.

Good find, and this absolutely supports the idea that a new SKU is being produced or is about to be produced. Big up ticks in advanced of the Switch Lite and OLED model, both of which were about 6 months prior to release. Nintendo has stated that they want to have plenty of stock at launch and it appears that they are prepping for manufacture a lot of units. Looking at this makes me think that perhaps a March release is still on the table. As others have pointed out, there may be no need for a teaser trailer like they did in October of 2016. Instead, reveal it in full in January and release two months later. April or May are also very possible, but the numbers are suggesting that March is not out of the question, even if the marketing cycle is far from conventional.
 
do we think we’ve combed through the shipping data as much as is necessary, or is there still likely info that we haven’t found

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Do you think we'll get a factory pic of the final unit? It seems security is tight
I suspect recording devices (like cellphones) are strictly forbidden on factory floor.

Remember Eurogamer article on Swtich? It was a drawing. We also got similar drawing for Switch 2, if those drawings are to be believed.

Which would make sense because they couldn't snap a photo. They are working off their memories by making the drawing.

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It's probably worth pointing out that the dramatically elevated WIP value in September 2024 doesn't mean it ramped in September - it means it was already elevated by the end of September. Since the WIP values are only reported every 6 months, I'm pretty sure that means that the WIP value could've been ramping meaningfully starting any time after March 2024. The same is true for the WIP buildup ahead of Lite and OLED. Since the values are only reported every 6 months, it's hard to get a good feel for how far in advance the WIP value starts to spike before a new model release.

I think it does pretty clearly indicate the buildup to new hardware though. I wish we had the numbers for March and September 2016 to see how the buildup to the current Switch looked.
 
imo the best marketing of the switch 2 has been going for 7 years. the marketing is the current switch success & fame. and since it is more of the same it has paved the way for the switch 2. and furukawa san saying all of our switch games will play on it is all we needed to know to continue on the same trip. there is nothing that much more to add to a similar concept apart from maybe a couple bells & whistles.

the big concept change already happened from wii u to switch so there was a lot to talk about. now it is like going from current iphone to new iphone.
 
It's probably worth pointing out that the dramatically elevated WIP value in September 2024 doesn't mean it ramped in September - it means it was already elevated by the end of September. Since the WIP values are only reported every 6 months, I'm pretty sure that means that the WIP value could've been ramping meaningfully starting any time after March 2024. The same is true for the WIP buildup ahead of Lite and OLED. Since the values are only reported every 6 months, it's hard to get a good feel for how far in advance the WIP value starts to spike before a new model release.

I think it does pretty clearly indicate the buildup to new hardware though. I wish we had the numbers for March and September 2016 to see how the buildup to the current Switch looked.

Are WIP numbers prior to March 2017 not available?
 
The Digital Foundry ran it on their "mock Switch 2" and it ran better than the PS4.

Would Sony do it? If the mass audience can't tell the difference between 1440p and 4K or fine with current gen graphics around 1080p. Would they give Nintendo an alley oop?
Ah, right, I forgot DF used the game. Although IIRC that wasn't the Director's Cut. And I was curious if the Director's Cut added anything with a heavier hardware cost to the game like Intergrade or Horizon FW's Burning Shores.
 
The only thing that makes me pause is; Would Nintendo really decide to market the Switch 2 launch games for only 3 months? They usually want to reveal games longer before release. Xenoblade Chronicles X definitive edition was revealed in October for a March release, so would they really cut that marketing time in half for the Switch 2 launch games?
 
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