StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Zedark]

It's good to hear some counterbalance from Nate and others that there isn't any behind-the-scenes chatter currently pointing to 2023 (at least not yet). That doesn't mean it's necessarily ruled out, since we cannot assess how fundamental their sources are in determining this info.

For example, if Nate were to have a direct source at the manufacturing facility that knows about the chip and also knows they are not starting production until late this year, then that is a solid indicator for 2024 at the earliest. On the other hand, if the source is at a small third party publisher who do not know whether they can release a small scale game in 2023 on the system, that might be simply because they are not privy to the latest on the release timing, and is a less solid indicator that 2023 is not happening.

This example is made up, mind you, and I'm not making any claims about anyone's sources. I just want to indicate that we should consider this, but simultaneously recognise that based on the type of sources, the degree to which the info is up to date can lag. So we shouldn't consider a negative indication as absolute truth, either, while at the same time taking it as an indicator against 2023. By the same token, each individual positive indication should be taken with a grain of salt as well, of course.

Personally, I still feel like 2023/early 2024 is more likely than later in 2024 based on the insights we have. Nate's and others' comments decreased my degree of belief, and I have not ruled out a later release than early 2024. I hope @NateDrake and others are able to keep us up to date about whether or not anything changes in the murmurs, so we can continue to calibrate our expectations! If these negative indications continue to be unchanged in the coming months, then that will shift the likelihood further towards 2024.

If hardware isn’t on the horizon I just hope they add a boost mode to the OLED :/

They will not imo. Anything they do will need to work with the OG 2017 Switch sku, and they probably determined it is not worth it from that perspective.

 

[MusicProposition]

welp, guess we have to wait another year for the next 3D Mario

 

[Kazuyamishima]

I wonder what grubb has to say regarding switch 2 atm considering he said something like %70 chance by 2023

 

[shield2023]

Hoping for some concrete news soon. Writing my first reply to see all posts.

 

[Semi Lazy Gamer]

I'm a little bit late on this, but a reminder that 2018 and 2020 were relatively light on releases after the previous years were packed. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing was happening this year.

The key question to ask now is: what's going on with 2024?

 

[Link_enfant]

I absolutely hate the idea of a holiday 2024 release with a passion.
I don’t mind waiting a bit more and feel like some remasters could fill the H2 2023 releases schedule pretty well (and of course Metroid Prime 4) but come on, end 2024 feels legitimately too late if not absurd.

I’m not too confident for 2023 but if it doesn’t happen then this is very likely going to be Q1 2024, or Q2 at the latest.

On a side note I already dislike that team 2024 may eventually be right lol, but I can live with it.

I just can’t wait for the reveal or some substantial/concrete leaks at least.

 

[CypressFX]

@KMStwo

I think this is the problem with this type of users. As I said back then about Polygon, without verification their info is not worth a penny. Nothing against them, but in case of Polygon I was right.

I habe never seen people trusting and having so much hope in a complete unknown person as in this place This tells a lot in what state we have arrived in regards to Nintendo (me too ofc)

My advice to the Mods: Besides Nate, every user should verify himself/herself or show us a track record. Otherwise these infos are useless tbh!

In regards to Nate:

Nate seems to know some things earlier than other things.

For example: Nintendo 64 NSO was back then very unlikely for Nate and MVG. I think it was just 2-3 months before the announcement he acknowledged it finally. Back at ResetEra there were already users who predicted it correctly.

Here it can be the same thing. Especially since Nintendo has become a very tight company in regards to leaks etc.

 

[Raccoon]

I absolutely hate the idea of a holiday 2024 release with a passion.
I don’t mind waiting a bit more and feel like some remasters could fill the H2 2023 releases schedule pretty well (and of course Metroid Prime 4) but come on, end 2024 feels legitimately too late if not absurd.

I’m not too confident for 2023 but if it doesn’t happen then this is very likely going to be Q1 2024, or Q2 at the latest.

On a side note I already dislike that team 2024 may eventually be right lol, but I can live with it.

I just can’t wait for the reveal or some substantial/concrete leaks at least.

yeah, in a lot of respects we're in the bad timeline. no 3D Mario until holiday 2023? another year and a half of these graphics? only getting the chip we know about after its industry potential is greatly diminished? it's definitely a bit of a bummer overall

 

[DariliumA]

Honestly, distinct reputable leakers are now saying divergent things with one another, which to me implies their sources know different things so we can’t really trust any of them. Not that their sources are wrong but there’s just no consensus, so no one knows exactly what’s going on.

Also, there’s no point saying « nothing points to a 2023 release », just say « it points to a 20XX release, but I’m unable to say if it’s early or late in the year ». We’re not going anywhere with those bits of info so might as well disregard them.

 

[carbonaxiom]

@KMStwo

I think this is the problem with this type of users. As I said back then about Polygon, without verification their info is not worth a penny. Nothing against them, but in case of Polygon I was right.

I habe never seen people trusting and having so much hope in a complete unknown person as in this place This tells a lot in what state we have arrived in regards to Nintendo (me too ofc)

My advice to the Mods: Besides Nate, every user should verify himself/herself or show us a track record. Otherwise these infos are useless tbh!

In regards to Nate:

Nate seems to know some things earlier than other things.

For example: Nintendo 64 NSO was back then very unlikely for Nate and MVG. I think it was just 2-3 months before the announcement he acknowledged it finally. Back at ResetEra there were already users who predicted it correctly.

Here it can be the same thing. Especially since Nintendo has become a very tight company in regards to leaks etc.

I've been following this thread almost since the beginning. You can place me in the camp that thinks the current way its moderated is good, and possibly even ideal, since every other suggested solution, like attempting to verify leakers, brings more problems than answers.

Honestly, distinct reputable leakers are now saying divergent things with one another, which to me implies their sources know different things so we can’t really trust any of them. Not that their sources are wrong but there’s just no consensus, so no one knows exactly what’s going on.

Traditional sources for Nintendo hardware information have been unusually unreliable since 2021 and the mix-up between the OLED Switch model and the unannounced 4K model. Since then this thread has basically been running with two separate and seemingly contradictory narratives: the one given by those traditional sources which mostly implies a mid to late 2024 release, and the one given by the Nvidia leak and the Linux commits that have so far confirmed said leak, which implies a 2023 or Q1 (January to March) 2024 release.

I don't know if we'll ever get an answer for why this contradiction exists, but if we ever do it would be this thread's theory of everything.

 

[kvetcha]

@KMStwo

I think this is the problem with this type of users. As I said back then about Polygon, without verification their info is not worth a penny. Nothing against them, but in case of Polygon I was right.

I habe never seen people trusting and having so much hope in a complete unknown person as in this place This tells a lot in what state we have arrived in regards to Nintendo (me too ofc)

My advice to the Mods: Besides Nate, every user should verify himself/herself or show us a track record. Otherwise these infos are useless tbh!

This has already been litigated repeatedly. Let’s not beat that dead horse any further.

 

[SoldierDelta]

@KMStwo

I think this is the problem with this type of users. As I said back then about Polygon, without verification their info is not worth a penny. Nothing against them, but in case of Polygon I was right.

I habe never seen people trusting and having so much hope in a complete unknown person as in this place This tells a lot in what state we have arrived in regards to Nintendo (me too ofc)

My advice to the Mods: Besides Nate, every user should verify himself/herself or show us a track record. Otherwise these infos are useless tbh!

In regards to Nate:

Nate seems to know some things earlier than other things.

For example: Nintendo 64 NSO was back then very unlikely for Nate and MVG. I think it was just 2-3 months before the announcement he acknowledged it finally. Back at ResetEra there were already users who predicted it correctly.

Here it can be the same thing. Especially since Nintendo has become a very tight company in regards to leaks etc.

Generally don't put stock into a leak unless they have a better than "average" track record. I can't believe people haven't picked up that we need to approach this topic with wide eyes and mountains of salt, but I guess this PSA was needed so... yeah.


Anyway I have a leak. A gas leak, I am going to die in 30 minutes.

 

[kasparov77]

Was @Polygon proved fake? so Drake's not getting 12GB of RAM?

 

[ILikeFeet]

Was @Polygon proved fake? so Drake's not getting 12GB of RAM?

12GB of ram didn't come from him. Polygon said nothing that hasn't been speculated long before already

 

[Aether]

I like nate, i value him as a great contributor and level headed person.
I don't trust his sources and in proxy him in regards to the successor.

Does this mean im 100% confident that it will come out in 2023?
No. I still think a Holiday 23 is the most reasonable, and that an announcement July seems reasonable. It could also slip to Early 2024, but still this FY. I DONT see it slipping to next FY.

Quiet time: yeah, a slow year is definitely posible, with them releasing it early next year, if they need to have eneough for its forst year.

But a slow 1.5 years? Thats where it gets hard to understand.
Slowing down momentum will be worse with no games announced,
and to big of a gap can be a determent when they want to hype up the next one. Its not comparable with Wii (everything changed) and Wii U (there the slow movement was irrelevant, because Wii U was such a flop, and the 3DS was also yearning for a follow up handheld).


------------Aging SoC topic if its really Holiday 2024---------

Them waiting that long and then reusing a Processor and a node that was kinda done years ago is again to similar to 2016, but in 2016 it was a general design they got cheaper since nvidia was struggling to get big customers. (the biggest not NVidia product was a Google Nexus Tablet i think). With this being The costs of the node wont get smaller, but the positioning in the market gets worse, with more PC handhelds coming out on the regular, and even Asus steping into the game. If they stay at 300-350$, sure, then its fine, if they increase the price to say 450 or 500$, then it gets harder to be attraktive for none nintendo games (-> the partners).

Not that its a big problem, i still think it can work. I just don't think its business savy to go this route without good reasons.

On the other hand, while it would cost a lot to rework the SOC, i could see them still deciding for a shrink, and some small adaptations when they decided that it will take longer, nothing fundamental, but so that they jump straight to the "revision" sized node for launch.
This would help them in 2 ways, when we draw a parallel to V1, V2 and Lite:
Lite has the focus on battery and less heat, the revision of X1 worked for that on undocked, but the backwards compatibility meant the V2 on docked cant push further and having 3 profiles was always to much work for developers, so the real potential was not used.

Them jumping straight to a smaller node, even if its kinda expensive for the start, would mean they wont be in this situation again, can still target the base clocks they had undocked (and for even 1080p the power would be more then fine), maybe (i don't think so) its even low enough that the lite could work without a fan?
on the other end, they can push the clocks as far as it goes for docked, since they don't have the old node to hold them back.

Why this is more relevant compared to the Switch?
Jump from 720p to 1080p is x2.25, jump from 1080p to 4k is x4.
The distance between those modes (and that's a simplification how rendering works, im aware of that) is bigger.

----------------RAM Sidenote --------------------

If its 12 or 16GB will be determined strictly by the price and availability of chips. 12GB is enough, i assume for their games even plenty.
8GB would be a design failure if its not using really fast flash storage (i wont go back to the discussion what an SSD is and what not...) and some form of direct storage is implemented.

It would work, but it would cripple a lot of ports that target the Series S

• RAM: 10 GB GDDR6 / 128 bit
• Bandwidth: 8 GB with 224 GB/s, 2 GB with56 GB/s

And 10GB just seems off going by availability of chips, 4,6 and 8 seem to be the regular sizes in mobile tech, and the Bandwidth would not be possible, so somewhat more would be needed.

If they can get it for cheap enough (-> price difference is small), i could see 16GB being there, and honestly, with a solid CPU and 16GB of ram it would be capable of ANY current gen Game (with different resolutions and fidelity obviously) from a gameplay perspective.

 

[Aether]

Rare double post, but had to add this and a third Edit did not make sense to me...

all of my previous post can be ignored from one perspective:
Thats the first really big jump in fidelity for nintendo since the Wii U 11 years ago... and the first really big from a PS3.5 kinda level, say 2009 console industry levels (interpolated between PS3 and Ps4)... could be that they push their games so much further that the tech is fine whatever they release, since first party games will look soo much better.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Them waiting that long and then reusing a Processor and a node that was kinda done years ago is again to similar to 2016, but in 2016 it was a general design they got cheaper since nvidia was struggling to get big customers. (the biggest not NVidia product was a Google Nexus Tablet i think). With this being The costs of the node wont get smaller, but the positioning in the market gets worse, with more PC handhelds coming out on the regular, and even Asus steping into the game. If they stay at 300-350$, sure, then its fine, if they increase the price to say 450 or 500$, then it gets harder to be attraktive for none nintendo games (-> the partners).

I think you got the wrong idea on the node. TSMC is pegging 5nm (and 4N) to be a long lived node. this will stick around and get further refinements while bringing costs down

 

[TSR3]

The chip readiness angle is the only reason I'm even slightly on board at this stage.

I asked a bit earlier what the latest timeframe would be for a chip like this to be used would be, and many of the responses were from the angle of 'when it would this be outdated'. It was still useful and interesting read, so I never got back to correcting myself, but I actually was aiming to ask:

"Assuming T239 is the chip to be used, and based on what we 'know' about the T239's state (ie. proximity to commercial readiness), when compared to a typical production timeline for a new chip (ie. production timelines for previous consoles if that information is available), when should this device be releasing, and when would it be considered too late or sitting on a ready chip for an improbable amount of time?"

A bit of a mouthful

I didn't see any other replies to this question, so I'll give it a go. One of the reasons it is hard to answer is that we don't know what node T239/Drake is going to be manufactured on. It looks like it was developed in parallel to the Orin SoC, which is manufactured on Samsung 8nm and has been available since Q4 last year (and probably manufactured since Q2 2022). So, if T239/Drake taped out for the same Samsung 8nm node, I'd be expecting it to be in full production right now. However the consensus on this forum is that what we know about T239/Drake makes it too large to be manufactured on Samsung 8nm and fit in a Switch style console. So it then depends on availability of other nodes. Samsung have had problems with their 5nm node, and so it is only starting to become available for production around now. Nvida are using a 4N node from TSMC for Lovelace GPUs, so that has been potentially available since late last year, but personally I would expect 4N node production to be all taken up with RTX cards and datacentre accelerators (like what Elon Musk wants to buy for his AI start up) until Q4 this year. However I have asked a question about the 4N node in the recent past and most replies were more confident that Nvidia would have plenty of slack on 4N already.

 

[Aether]

I think you got the wrong idea on the node. TSMC is pegging 5nm (and 4N) to be a long lived node. this will stick around and get further refinements while bringing costs down

wait, aren't we still between 6nm and 5nm, undecided?

And does this mean 4n (and future shrinks) are usable without changing the principal design of the SoC?

 

[D36]

Not to start anything, but how are we this easily swayed into believing a 2024 release, when the info we've just been given is practically a nothingburger? Nate simply said he didn't have any intel pointing to this year and @KMStwo merely stated that they hypothesized 2024 based on what they were told. I know we can't verify the latter and it's not like I distrust Nate, but I think we should be just a little more skeptical and, as I've said before, review our new information with what we already know. Yeah, this might seem like coping, but I don't think we should get carried away one way or another. At least this is better than last Tuesday with that whole Nintendo Live snafu.

 

[Mr Swine]

even though I’m firmly in the release date to be 2024 I think that waiting that long either means that:

1. Nintendo is having development problems akin to Wii U going from SD to HD and now HD to UHD
2. Nintendo is to overconfident that they can stretch Switch as far as possible without new hardware
3. Nintendo is not happy with how Drake turned out and is in panic mode
4. They can’t produce that many SoC’s so they are waiting till next year for the problem to fix itself
5. It’s currently too expensive to be sold as a mass market device like Switch

 

[Sonicfan1373]

I know Holiday 2023 might be out of play given lack of chatter. But what is indicative of a Holiday 2024 launch? I don’t there was anything to invalidate a Q1/Q2 2023 launch.

Personally I think having a Spring launch makes sense. You get to build up the console’s library, get word of mouth going with core early-adopters, adjust stock, and adjust marketing before heading into the busy season.

 

[ILikeFeet]

wait, aren't we still between 6nm and 5nm, undecided?

And does this mean 4n (and future shrinks) are usable without changing the principal design of the SoC?

undecided, yes. we don't actually know what node this will be on, just educated guess

if the shrinks are still of 5nm variety (which includes Nvidia's 4N customization), then yes. if you mean tsmc's upcoming 3nm, then no.

I didn't see any other replies to this question, so I'll give it a go. One of the reasons it is hard to answer is that we don't know what node T239/Drake is going to be manufactured on. It looks like it was developed in parallel to the Orin SoC, which is manufactured on Samsung 8nm and has been available since Q4 last year (and probably manufactured since Q2 2022). So, if T239/Drake taped out for the same Samsung 8nm node, I'd be expecting it to be in full production right now. However the consensus on this forum is that what we know about T239/Drake makes it too large to be manufactured on Samsung 8nm and fit in a Switch style console. So it then depends on availability of other nodes. Samsung have had problems with their 5nm node, and so it is only starting to become available for production around now. Nvida are using a 4N node from TSMC for Lovelace GPUs, so that has been potentially available since late last year, but personally I would expect 4N node production to be all taken up with RTX cards and datacentre accelerators (like what Elon Musk wants to buy for his AI start up) until Q4 this year. However I have asked a question about the 4N node in the recent past and most replies were more confident that Nvidia would have plenty of slack on 4N already.

yes, Nvidia bought a lot of capacity from TSMC, but their RTX cards aren't selling that fast and Nvidia just came out and said they aren't planning to ramp up production. there's probably plenty of capacity to fit Drake, and with its small size, a few wafers is a lot of Drake units

 

[Concernt]

I know Holiday 2023 might be out of play given lack of chatter. But what is indicative of a Holiday 2024 launch? I don’t there was anything to invalidate a Q1/Q2 2023 launch.

Personally I think having a Spring launch makes sense. You get to build up the console’s library, get word of mouth going with core early-adopters, adjust stock, and adjust marketing before heading into the busy season.

Why would 2023 be out of play?

I mean, I've seen plenty of chatter around it.

 

[Aether]

undecided, yes. we don't actually know what node this will be on, just educated guess

if the shrinks are still of 5nm variety (which includes Nvidia's 4N customization), then yes. if you mean tsmc's upcoming 3nm, then no.

So if its 5nm variety and 2024, its probably 4N.

upcoming? didn't they announce it for 2022? isn't it already in use?

With the current situation (taiwan, china, usa) im curious if it could be a reason why they are unsure about launching a new platform, and then not being able to deliver SoCs... would that mean they are waiting for a more secure path forward?

(im aware that there are more important aspects in this topic then a nintendo console if this escalates, but the implications would go far outside the scope of this thread on an humanitarian and economical scale)

 

[ILikeFeet]

So if its 5nm variety and 2024, its probably 4N.

upcoming? didnt they anounce it for 2022? isnt it already in use?

3nm is for this year, and just for Apple as usual

looking around, 4nm is a variation of 5nm, so that will be room to move into should it have benefits

 

[Catsylvania]

Why would 2023 be out of play?

I mean, I've seen plenty of chatter around it.

My guess is the ramp up would be unlike any other Nintendo console. For example, we officially knew NX existed long before that First Look trailer. Still, Nintendo isn’t beholden to how it did things in the past.

To be clear, I don’t know anything, just offering a possible explanation for why people think 2023 isn’t happening. A 2023/2024 launch doesn’t matter to me personally either way. It’s already the middle of April. The days drag, but the years fly by.

 

[Hocot8]

Why would 2023 be out of play?

I mean, I've seen plenty of chatter around it.

I mean y'all have seen plenty of chatter about a lot of things. Like someone said earlier, wouldn't it be best to disregard it lol?

 

[ziggyrivers]

They will not imo. Anything they do will need to work with the OG 2017 Switch sku, and they probably determined it is not worth it from that perspective.

Word. They’re gonna leave that “boost mode” for rhe successor.

I'm a little bit late on this, but a reminder that 2018 and 2020 were relatively light on releases after the previous years were packed. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing was happening this year.

The key question to ask now is: what's going on with 2024?

Although I understand your point, it’s not that they were light on releases. Is that we knew beforehand they were going to be like that. We’re four months into this year, a month into Nintendo’s new Fiscal Year and we don’t know what software they have for the latter half of this yesr, beyond Pikmin 4 and small, 3rd party titles. We don’t know what first party content they have right now.

Also, I wouldn’t use 2020 as an indicator of anything. It was a veeery odd year.

Another point: 2018 was just another year for the Switch. 2023 isn’t just another year. It’s the console’s sixth year in the market two revisions in and a market dominance that we can say steps on saturation. It’s almost timely for Nintendo to mention a successor.

another year and a half of these graphics?

In another instance I would say that “Nintendo doesn’t care”, but the Switch is a matured console. So yeah, it’s time for a revision to spruce things up

I've been following this thread almost since the beginning. You can place me in the camp that thinks the current way its moderated is good, and possibly even ideal, since every other suggested solution, like attempting to verify leakers, brings more problems than answers.


Traditional sources for Nintendo hardware information have been unusually unreliable since 2021 and the mix-up between the OLED Switch model and the unannounced 4K model. Since then this thread has basically been running with two separate and seemingly contradictory narratives: the one given by those traditional sources which mostly implies a mid to late 2024 release, and the one given by the Nvidia leak and the Linux commits that have so far confirmed said leak, which implies a 2023 or Q1 (January to March) 2024 release.

I don't know if we'll ever get an answer for why this contradiction exists, but if we ever do it would be this thread's theory of everything.

If there’s basis for a March 2024 release, then we should hear something in the Investors Meeting like in 2016. They have a good roadmap with the way they unveiled Switch 2 reveal. They could follow that. Same way they followed the BOTW trailer format with TOTK

It’s currently too expensive to be sold as a mass market device like Switch

This is a very good observation. It’d be Nintendo’s very own Vita

we officially NX existed long before that First Look trailer.

Because:
• Wii U was such a flop
• Nintendo partnering with DeNA caused everyone to question if they remained in the hardware market

 

[TSR3]

Don’t know how some of y’all can stay truly optimistic about end of this year. Even if there’s some doubts about the reporting by Nate earlier this year, DF corroborated something being cancelled as well. I’m not sure I can fully invest in the idea of a new device hitting end of 2023 off of the back of all that.

I haven't got any additional comments to @karmitt original question (@chocolate_supra already read my own mind 100%), but I would like to turn the question around at Team2024 - what are your reasons for expecting [REDACTED] to actually come out in 2024, particularly late 2024?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I think the thread was so dampened by Nate because if this is a 2023 release something has to either be announced or starting going around the rumor circles very very soon. There's almost no chance this gets announced after June 2023 if it's releasing November 2023 and if it was getting announced June 2023, there would have to be some discussion going around the rumor mill.

But if there's nothing...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I haven't got any additional comments to @karmitt original question (@chocolate_supra already read my own mind 100%), but I would like to turn the question around at Team2024 - what are your reasons for expecting [REDACTED] to actually come out in 2024, particularly late 2024?

It just seems unlikely to release this year as it's getting so late in the year and 2024 seems more likely than 2025 because a 2025 release date would be such a bad idea.

I would not be shocked by 2025, but I would be very confused by it.

Late 2024 is just because basically all consoles either release in Q4 or Q1 and Q1 2024 is also starting to look unlikely.

 

[ziggyrivers]

The 3DS was released seven years after the NDS. Maybe seven is rhe lucky number? xd

 

[lattjeful]

The 3DS was released seven years after the NDS. Maybe seven is rhe lucky number? xd

If "lucky" for Nintendo is a repeat of the 3DS launch, I don't think they'll be very happy.

 

[Bosintang]

I've always favored 2024 over 2023 and 2022, and it now seems like a much more popular opinion than when I was labelled a "doomer" or whatever other epithet.

With that being said, I do not believe that the word of anyone, especially someone who's been repeatedly wrong on that topic should have much weight in one's opinion. If you think that the current elements point to a 2023 release, there's no reason to change your mind.
I've always seen the probability of a release as a gaussian centered on April 2024.

 

[Catsylvania]

Because:
• Wii U was such a flop
• Nintendo partnering with DeNA caused everyone to question if they remained in the hardware market

We also knew about Project Cafe well before Nintendo revealed Wii U, and Wii was Nintendo’s most successful home console at the time. In retrospect, Nintendo publicly revealed Reality, Dolphin, then Revolution with significant lead up to even merely unveiling the console itself and final name.

If Nintendo announced something tomorrow, seven to eight months would be a pretty quick turnaround from officially acknowledging a Switch successor exists to launching the console. Sure, Nintendo can absolutely do that; it’d just be highly unorthodox.

 

[chocolate_supra]

It just seems unlikely to release this year as it's getting so late in the year

We're in month 4 of 12

 

[deletarek]

Holiday 2024 would be bad but not because the tech would be “outdated”, firstly because if all it takes is a year then it’d already be woefully outdated if it launched this year, but as Dakhil pointed out the T239 would still be the best SOC Nintendo could acquire. It would suck because the software lineup for the next 18 or so months will be awful as it’s almost a certainty all their top studios have moved or are moving onto the next system.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I've always seen the probability of a release as a gaussian centered on April 2024.

Why April 2024? Because it’s when Nintendo’s new Fiscal Year starst?

We also knew about Project Cafe well before Nintendo revealed Wii U, and Wii was Nintendo’s most successful home console at the time. In retrospect, Nintendo publicly revealed Reality, Dolphin, then Revolution with significant lead up to even merely unveiling the console itself and final name.

If Nintendo announced something tomorrow, seven to eight months would be a pretty quick turnaround from officially acknowledging a Switch successor exists to launching the console. Sure, Nintendo can absolutely do that; it’d just be highly unorthodox.

Good points. I wasn’t active during those specific projects, so thanks for bringing them up xD

 

[D36]

We also knew about Project Cafe well before Nintendo revealed Wii U, and Wii was Nintendo’s most successful home console at the time. In retrospect, Nintendo publicly revealed Reality, Dolphin, then Revolution with significant lead up to even merely unveiling the console itself and final name.

If Nintendo announced something tomorrow, seven to eight months would be a pretty quick turnaround from officially acknowledging a Switch successor exists to launching the console. Sure, Nintendo can absolutely do that; it’d just be highly unorthodox.

That's the thing, isn't it? The first we usually hear officially about the next hardware is the codename and it's usually two years before release. What if this is the same as usual and we wind up getting a revision instead of the successor this year like many of us are expecting? It's highly unlikely, given what we know, but it could be how Nintendo keeps up momentum for the foreseeable future, especially if they advertise it right?

 

[TomNookYankees]

I just don't see why Nintendo couldn't just pull a MK8 with ACNH, drake being a thing already or not.
That is, releasing an expansive DLC with new content across a span of multiple months. Maybe even buying time before the next title.

At the very least it’s extremely likely that the next animal crossing will reuse the same engine and most of ACNH’s assets which will cut down on development time significantly.

 

[Aether]

We also knew about Project Cafe well before Nintendo revealed Wii U, and Wii was Nintendo’s most successful home console at the time. In retrospect, Nintendo publicly revealed Reality, Dolphin, then Revolution with significant lead up to even merely unveiling the console itself and final name.

If Nintendo announced something tomorrow, seven to eight months would be a pretty quick turnaround from officially acknowledging a Switch successor exists to launching the console. Sure, Nintendo can absolutely do that; it’d just be highly unorthodox.

i mean back then the mainstream and even many fans did not get the info about those projects, you had to be one of those forum dwellers to figure they are working on a new console, or read some specific magazines, and it was always far future talk.

The idea of hardware releasing just weeks to months after announcement is something rather new, but phone makers are doing it ALL THE TIME.

I would say 6-8 months before release is the timeframe where leaks would start, since thats the point where it starts to get to a wider field of partners (accessories, third parties that are not high trust companies, production).


All this to say: yeah, MAYBE it is still far into the future (then im honestly worried), or it will have a shorter anouncement -> launch time, as does every other tech company now.

 

[Catsylvania]

That's the thing, isn't it? The first we usually hear officially about the next hardware is the codename and it's usually two years before release. What if this is the same as usual and we wind up getting a revision instead of the successor this year like many of us are expecting? It's highly unlikely, given what we know, but it could be how Nintendo keeps up momentum for the foreseeable future, especially if they advertise it right?

It speaks to the times we live in. It’s so much easier to relay information and communicate to consumers. Nintendo doesn’t need as long of a lead up as it did in the past. It has been doing digital events long enough that people know they exist, know where to find them if they miss the premiere, and expect this as Nintendo’s preferred method of revealing things.

As long as Nintendo avoids a Sega Saturn-like surprise launch, it should be able to go from announce to unveil to launch in less than a year.

 

[D36]

It speaks to the times we live in. It’s so much easier to relay information and communicate to consumers. Nintendo doesn’t need as long of a lead up as it did in the past. It has been doing digital events long enough that people know they exist, know where to find them if they miss the premiere, and expect this as Nintendo’s preferred method of revealing things.

As long as Nintendo avoids a Sega Saturn-like surprise launch, it should be able to go from announce to unveil to launch in less than a year.

Yeah, I've been operating on more or less the same logic; if Drake comes out this year, now would be an ample time for an announcement. As has been stated near ad nauseum, it would explain why we no next to nothing of their 2H plans outside of DLC, which wasn't the case in the past. If it is 2024, that makes the lack of 2H even more confusing, even if Nintendo aren't beholden to patterns.

 

[Concernt]

I mean y'all have seen plenty of chatter about a lot of things. Like someone said earlier, wouldn't it be best to disregard it lol?

That includes chatter that implies it isn't 2023, which would leave us with just the existing leaks and Linux commits pointing to a launch sooner, not later. So I'm all for disregarding chatter in favour of the facts, because that aligns with my expectations!

 

[Raccoon]

I've always favored 2024 over 2023 and 2022, and it now seems like a much more popular opinion than when I was labelled a "doomer" or whatever other epithet.

With that being said, I do not believe that the word of anyone, especially someone who's been repeatedly wrong on that topic should have much weight in one's opinion. If you think that the current elements point to a 2023 release, there's no reason to change your mind.
I've always seen the probability of a release as a gaussian centered on April 2024.

well in fairness it definitely kinda sucks. it's becoming popular as a belief but not as a decision on their part lol

 

[Bosintang]

well in fairness it definitely kinda sucks. it's becoming popular as a belief but not as a decision on their part lol

I had the last 2 years to make peace with the fact that there wouldn't be a new Nintendo console until 2024, because Nintendo gave us at that time a BIG clue as to when their machine would release. I do regret however that Mariko was not overclocked in 2019, there was something cool to do with that and many games would have benefited from it. In 2021, the ship had already sailed for me.

As I do not play on the big boy consoles nor on PC, I do not have a direct point of comparison so I'm less frustrated by the switch being outdated (it now clearly is). In a vacuum, 2023 is shaping up to be a great year for the switch from the software viewpoint.

 

[D36]

I had the last 2 years to make peace with the fact that there wouldn't be a new Nintendo console until 2024, because Nintendo have us at that time a BIG clue as to when their machine would release. I do regret however that Mariko was not overclocked in 2019, there was something cool to do with that and many games would have benefited from it. In 2021, the ship had already sailed for me.

As I do not play on the big boy consoles nor on PC, I do not have a direct point of comparison so I'm less frustrated by the switch being outdated (it now clearly is). In a vacuum, 2023 is shaping up to be a great year for the switch from the software viewpoint.

What clue? Does it have anything to do with everything we've heard so far?

 

[ausmaw]

3nm is for this year, and just for Apple as usual

looking around, 4nm is a variation of 5nm, so that will be room to move into should it have benefits

So what's happening with Samsungs 3nm process. I thought they worked out a lot of the problems.

 

[ziggyrivers]

At the very least it’s extremely likely that the next animal crossing will reuse the same engine and most of ACNH’s assets which will cut down on development time significantly.

I concur. Plus Nintendo seems to be entering more into the “Games as a Service” (GaaS) business model. What with Smash Ultimate and now Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. They reeaaally extended that game’s life with the Booster Pass. I think Animal Crossing REDACTED will be available launch year or second year of the successor.

I would say 6-8 months before release is the timeframe where leaks would start, since thats the point where it starts to get to a wider field of partners (accessories, third parties that are not high trust companies, production).

Correct. Especially if they’re nearing supply chain management: lots of suppliers, vendors and factories involved, meaning more probability of leaks.

That includes chatter that implies it isn't 2023, which would leave us with just the existing leaks and Linux commits pointing to a launch sooner, not later. So I'm all for disregarding chatter in favour of the facts, because that aligns with my expectations!

It wouldn’t surprise me that mixed chatter is a combination of bad leaks and purposely given inaccurate intel for the sake of still giving Nintendo a semblance of control over reveal.