StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Because it means Nintendo has lost. Sony has beaten them.

Please do not bring this into this thread, this is a speculation thread on future Nintendo hardware based on known quantities that are public to which we can speculate on what is possible within the realm of likelihood. We are not here to discuss a Console war between Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft, it has no place in the thread.


This thread goes into circles and can be tense, but what it is most certainly not is about the prospects of a console war.

That belongs elsewhere.

Kindly do not bring up this nonsense into this thread and attempt to derail it into something that it is not about. Thank you.

 

[Dark Cloud]

You keep responding to this person. You’d think people would know what a troll is by now

 

[John Omaha]

Or do you think Nintendo's business model and game design philosophies are fundamentally incompatible with those of AAA devs?

Kind of. I wrote a longer post on this in another thread, but third parties enjoy special privileges on PlayStation and Xbox because their software is essential to those platforms' success. Flagship entries of GTA or Call of Duty skipping PlayStation for just one generation would be an existential threat to Sony's console business. For Nintendo, this scenario has been the norm for their three most recent generations, two of which have been their most successful to date. Third parties have very little leverage over Nintendo.

As long as Nintendo platforms remain first-party driven, they will not be prioritized by third parties regardless of how powerful they are.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

The more I think about it, the more I think, you know what would be really neat?

If Nintendo announces this new device in a direct next month.

No manufacturing leaks.
No knowledge of it upfront from insiders.
No mention of it from Nintendo before hand.

Just a "Join us on June 14th for a Nintendo direct focusing on software launching in H2 this year."

Direct starts, we get a short message from Furokawa about something special to share and a switch 2 launch trailer drops full of software available for switch 1/2 showing off the difference.

Would be super hype, lots of talk of how Nintendo managed to mostly keep it a secret. Amazement at how good games look on the new switch and the fact they have patched the evergreens.

The cherry on the top for me. That new resident evil exclusive to switch being Drake enhanced with RTX and DLSS. Oh and RE2 Remake, RE3 Remake and Village all planned to get releases on the new platform.

Would be great if they kept it secret and surprised us all, but who am I kidding, I refresh this thread 20 times a day waiting for the smallest morsel of info to drop, I spoil the surprise myself.

 

[uncleoptimus]

You keep responding to this person. You’d think people would know what a troll is by now

Tbf to responders, the bait is so very juicy!

===

On topic, I just got my Steam Deck in and ... the big screen is nice and the overall hardware feels pretty ace. (Various pluses and minuses after a few days. One minus tho, I'm not yet sold on the layout, with the buttons near the edges of the unit. Also ... hey I miss the kickstand!)

I play a lot of Rocket League basically only on the switch, and now with the Deck I can directly compare the experiences. The power bump is clear from the rez, graphic details and effects to the point where the stages have a whole host of details that I never saw coming from the switch version.
However there is also a pronounced stutter at times, like a wrenching hitch in the gameplay several times per match, even as the average fps purportedly is ~60fps. I didn't tweak any settings, its just what ever is default when loading up the game via steam. Looks like I have to down-shift the graphics settings in order to get it to play more reliably. Overall I enjoy the performance and subsequent graphic boost, but the game doesn't play any better from my experience thus far (I guess a credit to their custom switch work?)

The Steam Deck unit tho ... dang this thing is heavy! Thats gonna be an utter no-go for a Nintendo device.

It got me thinking on how Next Switch cannot chunkify its unit body like the Deck has to cram more cooling and battery capacity.

I'm assuming the Next Switch will adopt the same screen and overall tablet dimensions so its got me wondering whether their nvidia apu will be able to even match the raw performance of the Steam Deck's apu?

If at the originally-rumoured 8nm process, thats impossible, I get that. But even if the chip ends up on a 5nm process (vs the Deck's apparently 7nm chip), would that density increase be able to offset the compromises in size and power draw they will need to make?

 

[ShaunSwitch]

I'm assuming the Next Switch will adopt the same screen and overall tablet dimensions so its got me wondering whether their nvidia apu will be able to even match the raw performance of the Steam Deck's apu?

If at the originally-rumoured 8nm process, thats impossible, I get that. But even if the chip ends up on a 5nm process (vs the Deck's apparently 7nm chip), would that density increase be able to offset the compromises in size and power draw they will need to make?

On 8nm I don't think it has a chance of matching it in handheld for raw performance. In docked? Sure.

On 5nm, it will likely surpass the steam deck. A lot of the steam decks power draw comes from it using an x86 CPU. IMO a 6/8 core A78 setup in the switch 2 will match or beat the deck CPU.

For GPU, Nintendo isn't going to have a GPU running at 1.6tflops in handheld, but they won't need to. I imagine handheld will hit maybe 650-900 gflops raw perf, but with console optimisation and DLSS for IQ it will probably match steam deck at the least in handheld.

In docked, with that 12SM GPU, DLSS and possible RTX, it will smoke the deck. All this is contingent on not being on Samsung 8nm though.

 

[Foltzie]

Because it means Nintendo has lost. Sony has beaten them.

I hope all of my stock does as well as Nintendo's while "losing" wars.

OK, I'll stop.

Sorry, I tend to obsess over stuff because I have ADHD.

Assuming earnestness, I find that when I get hung up in an ADHD spiral, if you can go out and feed the urge by consuming information that would broaden your knowledge of the topic. Might as well take the urge to learn.

I annoy family all the time by reading journal articles on various topics all the time.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Latest DF direct has ~25 minutes on various FSR 2.0 questions, coming to similar conclusions as have been discussed here:

1. Console games have had TAA/TU solutions for some time, so the opening there is smaller than it appears for FSR 2.0
2. But the quality of FSR 2.0 is sufficiently high that it might become compelling in that space
3. FSR is expensive, and console games running at 4k60fps with it seem unlikely because of that
4. DLSS is much faster because of the fixed function hardware
5. And produces a better quality image, likely because of the AI approach
6. Tensor core equivalents are the direction the GPU industry is going to take for reasons that have nothing to do with gaming
7. AMD will eventually ship their own, in fact
8. So DLSS-like AI techniques are likely here to stay, simply because the hardware is here to stay
9. DLSS costs less on-die space than the equivalent amount of shader cores to run FSR
10. And DLSS is also an electricity savings as well
    • Alex cites something like 50w power savings for DLSS, which is something like ~11% power savings on the RTX 3090

 

[Foltzie]

The more I think about it the more I think a 8-9 year life doesn't really make sense. You can basically break Nintendo's video game business down into three components now:
Hardware (consoles/controllers)
Software (games)
Subscriptions (NSO)

When Nintendo evaluates potential business decisions, they ultimately decide based on how it affects sales in these 3 areas.
So let's ask the same question, how would a 7 year vs 9 year generation affect these 3 areas of sales?

Hardware
I think it's extremely likely that Nintendo will sell more hardware, both consoles and in particular controllers if they launch a new system late 2023 to early 2024 vs waiting until late 2025. Sales of the base switch unit and switch lite have been collapsing for a while and the OLED boost is not gonna last forever. Even if they launch another major revision, it runs into the same issue in 2024. So I think there's no real question that a new console would sell more hardware than a revision, and no revision would be a disaster.

Software
Nintendo will most likely sell more software with a new console launch late 2023 or early 2024 rather than with a revision as well. This is because they can launch the next big 3D Mario and Mario Kart, which would easily sell a combined 40 million or more in one year. Combine that with other launch year titles and software sales would spike dramatically. Additionally, as happens with all consoles, the switch's active audience is gonna start dropping as early adopters start to get bored of it. So a new console would probably sell more software as well.

Subscription
Here is the single biggest reason I believe Nintendo would benefit from launching a new console. A new console would give them a lot of opportunity to revamp and improve NSO. For one they can finally replace the switch's horrific wifi adapter. But they can also improve the virtual console by offering more powerful consoles, particularly the gamecube and wii. And on top of all that they can use the increased power of the hardware to further improve the emulation. I don't know if the switch 2 could pull off 4k gamecube games, but at the very least 1080p would be easy, and potentially a middle ground with 1440p. They could even explore options like anti aliasing. With these areas and the potential to reinvent the service to some degree, I believe subscription sales would improve greatly with the launch of a new console.

After thinking about it and analyzing the three different aspects of their video game business, I don't believe there is any financial explanation for running a 9 year generation.

I like this post a lot,

The only thing I would add, is that a Drake model coming in at a price higher than $349 leaves room for the existing models to be available for sale. No reason to be afraid of Osbourne effect if Nintendo's pricing strategy provides a strong position for the existing Mariko Switch models. Nintendo had $130 covered with the 2DS (and cheaper than that with earlier handhelds), so maybe there is room for Nintendo to move the Lite "down" in price if they can afford to do so (not sure what the Switch Lite BOM is currently, but it was tough to get to $200 originally).

Nintendo could be in a unique situation in that they could continue to sell their "previous" model in a way that Sony and Microsoft have not with the PS4 and XBO since the weren't able to pull the price down with with "Slim" versions of those machine.

Edit: This is a HUGE assumption about being able to move the Switch Lite price downward, but that is not required for the strategy to work with a higher prices Drake Switch. I just think the execution works better if they can capture a sub $200 market too.

 

[Derachi]

STOP RESPONDING TO THE TROLL, FAM

COME ON

 

[Serif]

STOP RESPONDING TO THE TROLL, FAM

COME ON

I at least wanted to give the benefit of the doubt to someone whose talking points revolve around Nintendo making a powerful console, that they at least share their opinion on the Nvidia leak that suggests that Nvidia and Nintendo are indeed developing a powerful hybrid. Otherwise we'd be ignoring the elephant in the room.

I'm much more excited for a powerful mobile device anyway. Unlike my gaming PC, I can't build my own sleek hybrid device that will outperform the competition, and the current "competition" in that space being the Steam Deck, Aya Neo, etc. is not what I'm interested in at the moment.

 

[Foltzie]

Latest DF direct has ~25 minutes on various FSR 2.0 questions, coming to similar conclusions as have been discussed here:

1. Console games have had TAA/TU solutions for some time, so the opening there is smaller than it appears for FSR 2.0
2. But the quality of FSR 2.0 is sufficiently high that it might become compelling in that space
3. FSR is expensive, and console games running at 4k60fps with it seem unlikely because of that
4. DLSS is much faster because of the fixed function hardware
5. And produces a better quality image, likely because of the AI approach
6. Tensor core equivalents are the direction the GPU industry is going to take for reasons that have nothing to do with gaming
7. AMD will eventually ship their own, in fact
8. So DLSS-like AI techniques are likely here to stay, simply because the hardware is here to stay
9. DLSS costs less on-die space than the equivalent amount of shader cores to run FSR
10. And DLSS is also an electricity savings as well
    • Alex cites something like 50w power savings for DLSS, which is something like ~11% power savings on the RTX 3090

Shoot, I would assume AMDs FSR development is paired behind the scenes with dedicated hardware research for future AMD GPUs.

 

[mariodk18]

They even have “snob” in their name and a pretentious character as their avatar. Did we learn nothing from davec00ke?

 

[Derachi]

LMAO HE GOT BANNED

 

[Thraktor]

On 8nm I don't think it has a chance of matching it in handheld for raw performance. In docked? Sure.

On 5nm, it will likely surpass the steam deck. A lot of the steam decks power draw comes from it using an x86 CPU. IMO a 6/8 core A78 setup in the switch 2 will match or beat the deck CPU.

For GPU, Nintendo isn't going to have a GPU running at 1.6tflops in handheld, but they won't need to. I imagine handheld will hit maybe 650-900 gflops raw perf, but with console optimisation and DLSS for IQ it will probably match steam deck at the least in handheld.

In docked, with that 12SM GPU, DLSS and possible RTX, it will smoke the deck. All this is contingent on not being on Samsung 8nm though.

Just to clarify, the Steam Deck doesn't normally run at 1.6Tflops either. In my testing for intensive games it typically runs between 1.0GHz and 1.3GHz (so about 1-1.3Tflops). I believe you can fix the clock speed to 1.6GHz, but I assume that reduces CPU clocks and/or shortens the battery life. I haven't tested it myself.

I agree that the handheld performance on the Drake model won't quite match Steam Deck, but I don't think it has to. Steam Deck performance is very impressive (being able to play games like Cyberpunk at mostly high settings on a portable is quite something), but it's still running games which aren't optimised for the hardware, using higher level APIs, then wrapping all that in a compatibility layer to run on a different OS. I'd be interested to see if there are any well optimised third party ports for the new device so that we can get a like-for-like comparison with the Steam Deck. I don't necessarily think it's going to match up to Steam Deck in every case, but even if it's in the ballpark that would be pretty impressive for a device that will almost certainly be far smaller than the Steam Deck.

Latest DF direct has ~25 minutes on various FSR 2.0 questions, coming to similar conclusions as have been discussed here:

1. Console games have had TAA/TU solutions for some time, so the opening there is smaller than it appears for FSR 2.0
2. But the quality of FSR 2.0 is sufficiently high that it might become compelling in that space
3. FSR is expensive, and console games running at 4k60fps with it seem unlikely because of that
4. DLSS is much faster because of the fixed function hardware
5. And produces a better quality image, likely because of the AI approach
6. Tensor core equivalents are the direction the GPU industry is going to take for reasons that have nothing to do with gaming
7. AMD will eventually ship their own, in fact
8. So DLSS-like AI techniques are likely here to stay, simply because the hardware is here to stay
9. DLSS costs less on-die space than the equivalent amount of shader cores to run FSR
10. And DLSS is also an electricity savings as well
    • Alex cites something like 50w power savings for DLSS, which is something like ~11% power savings on the RTX 3090

AMD actually do already ship their own, just in their HPC Instinct cards, where they're called Matrix Cores. I'm honestly curious if AMD will add them to their consumer cards any time soon. The main benefit for gaming uses is DLSS, but they've gone with a different approach for FSR. There are definitely other potential use-cases in gaming going forward, but it's not as if their current approach is incompatible with ML code, they can just run it on standard FP cores (where they now have high-rate support for INT4, INT8, etc). Extensive ML use in gaming* will be limited for the next few years to what PS5/XBSS/X can manage, so AMD could probably wait out this generation, and then add Matrix Cores into their consumer GPU architecture just in time for PS6/XBox whatever.

*Hopefully Nintendo games will be the exception, but obviously AMD doesn't have to worry about running them.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

The plan is to position Drake as a mid gen upgrade type option for those who want it. They will still offer the other models for those who don’t.

That way, they don’t have to care…at all…how much/fast the Drake model sells comparatively or how how they price it.

I don’t think it matters how they position it as long as their is a somewhat decently lengthened cross-gen period that then moves into the new hardware having exclusive 1st party software. That is something I have been saying is what they should do.

If your selling this as a new gen with an almost immediate collapse in sales from the previous then the questions I asked are valid. Doubly so if you are trying to move on. To which a mid-gen refresh does nothing to answer that question about why cross-gen is a bad thing when the new hardware is announced.

 

[YolkFolk]

The only reason most people buy traditional home consoles is to play modern AAA 3rd party games. It’s simply a cheap/more convenient pc alternative. Always has been since the 90’s

So, for that reason, a traditional home Nintendo home console will always not sell that well cause it will never be a primary AAA 3rd party gaming machine.



The plan is to position Drake as a mid gen upgrade type option for those who want it. They will still offer the other models for those who don’t.

That way, they don’t have to care…at all…how much/fast the Drake model sells comparatively or how how they price it.





I mean…aren’t you describing exactly what this Drake model is meant to do? Be the expensive option for gamers who do want to play the Switch library with better resolution/performance?

They don’t need to ditch portable hardware to do this, clearly.

People who talk about something a stationary console can do that a hybrid can’t…are literally talking about hardware power differentials where Nintendo is meant to divide their software design and divide their focus between two separate platforms

They arent going to do that anymore.

You have absolutely no idea what the plan is. Please stop talking down to people and acting as if you know better than everyone else. Literally no one on this board knows what will happen - it could be Switch 2 and the successor or it could be like New 3DS. People will have their own views and have the right to express them without you acting like you’ve got the inside knowledge all the time.

This device is basically a brand new console with completely new hardware the idea that Nintendo don’t care and it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t sell well because of OG Switch sales is just ridiculous.

 

[Deleted member 887]

AMD actually do already ship their own, just in their HPC Instinct cards, where they're called Matrix Cores. I'm honestly curious if AMD will add them to their consumer cards any time soon. The main benefit for gaming uses is DLSS, but they've gone with a different approach for FSR. There are definitely other potential use-cases in gaming going forward,

One of the drivers is going to be outside of gaming, I suspect - we already have universal voice recognition on our phones, ML hardware could offload most of that work out of the cloud, same for facial analysis in images. In 5 years we'll see a ML API for the web, I feel fairly confident. The enterprise may have driven the initial creation of the hardware, but it has broad desktop uses.

but it's not as if their current approach is incompatible with ML code, they can just run it on standard FP cores (where they now have high-rate support for INT4, INT8, etc). Extensive ML use in gaming* will be limited for the next few years to what PS5/XBSS/X can manage, so AMD could probably wait out this generation, and then add Matrix Cores into their consumer GPU architecture just in time for PS6/XBox whatever.

Yeah, I think you're correct. It's going to behoove companies to have a single design across their desktop and enterprise class hardware, but since AMD isn't actually behind on ML acceleration

*Hopefully Nintendo games will be the exception, but obviously AMD doesn't have to worry about running them.

it's going to be an interesting few years...

 

[Falcatops]

Latest DF direct has ~25 minutes on various FSR 2.0 questions, coming to similar conclusions as have been discussed here:

1. Console games have had TAA/TU solutions for some time, so the opening there is smaller than it appears for FSR 2.0
2. But the quality of FSR 2.0 is sufficiently high that it might become compelling in that space
3. FSR is expensive, and console games running at 4k60fps with it seem unlikely because of that
4. DLSS is much faster because of the fixed function hardware
5. And produces a better quality image, likely because of the AI approach
6. Tensor core equivalents are the direction the GPU industry is going to take for reasons that have nothing to do with gaming
7. AMD will eventually ship their own, in fact
8. So DLSS-like AI techniques are likely here to stay, simply because the hardware is here to stay
9. DLSS costs less on-die space than the equivalent amount of shader cores to run FSR
10. And DLSS is also an electricity savings as well
    • Alex cites something like 50w power savings for DLSS, which is something like ~11% power savings on the RTX 3090

Thanks for the video, will watch it when I get back from work.
A few quick comments on your points:
3. And probably it’s even more expensive on the gpus of the PS5/XBSX.
5. I think that DF commented on their Control DLSS video about the AI being trained on 16K game rendering, so it has the capability to create detail from scratch.
9. That’s what I asked the other day! Nice to see it addressed again.
10. This can be a big advantage if Drake has DLSS on handheld mode, and add the fact that DLSS works better than FSR at lower input resolutions.

This is infinitely more interesting to talk about than “Nintendo lost the war”

 

[menx64]

Hello guys, I have been testing FSR2.0 with my 5700xt and the results look really impressive. I went to try very low resolutions and it seems to be doing a good job.
Honestly, if anything I am glad for any upscaling tech Nintendo uses with the next switch.

 

[KMStwo]

You have absolutely no idea what the plan is. Please stop talking down to people and acting as if you know better than everyone else. Literally no one on this board knows what will happen - it could be Switch 2 and the successor or it could be like New 3DS. People will have their own views and have the right to express them without you acting like you’ve got the inside knowledge all the time.

This device is basically a brand new console with completely new hardware the idea that Nintendo don’t care and it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t sell well because of OG Switch sales is just ridiculous.

I 100% agree with this.
From insider knowledge we know Drake will receive exclusive third party games and from speculation it may eventually receive its own exclusive Nintendo games, for those games to sell especially the third party ones I think Nintendo will really really want people to buy Drake over the old Switches. That is long term business sense, this isn't buying the OLED Switch over the Switch which both have the same business ambitions. Drake would be the platform where ALL of the games can be bought, I think Nintendo would want people to transition to it as soon as possible.

 

[karmitt]

Latest DF direct has ~25 minutes on various FSR 2.0 questions, coming to similar conclusions as have been discussed here:

1. Console games have had TAA/TU solutions for some time, so the opening there is smaller than it appears for FSR 2.0
2. But the quality of FSR 2.0 is sufficiently high that it might become compelling in that space
3. FSR is expensive, and console games running at 4k60fps with it seem unlikely because of that
4. DLSS is much faster because of the fixed function hardware
5. And produces a better quality image, likely because of the AI approach
6. Tensor core equivalents are the direction the GPU industry is going to take for reasons that have nothing to do with gaming
7. AMD will eventually ship their own, in fact
8. So DLSS-like AI techniques are likely here to stay, simply because the hardware is here to stay
9. DLSS costs less on-die space than the equivalent amount of shader cores to run FSR
10. And DLSS is also an electricity savings as well
    • Alex cites something like 50w power savings for DLSS, which is something like ~11% power savings on the RTX 3090

Thanks for the summary! This is the kind of thing I was hoping would eventually come out - I just couldn't take the other "DLSS Killer" headline seriously.

DLSS really is a perfect fit for Nintendo's hardware right now. I wonder if it's always been part of the discussion since they partnered with Nvidia - I suspect it must've been.

 

[TonyBaduy]

I am sure Nintendo will do everything in their power with Nvidia to have DLSS in handheld just for the power savings alone. RT may be a different topic, but DLSS may allow for some of it to show in handheld mode too.

 

[ILikeFeet]

not getting DLSS or a NERD equivalent isn't something I'm worried about

 

[Dakhil]

I am sure Nintendo will do everything in their power with Nvidia to have DLSS in handheld just for the power savings alone. RT may be a different topic, but DLSS may allow for some of it to show in handheld mode too.

Hardware wise, that's not a problem as shown with the illegal Nvidia leaks.

 

[Deleted member 887]

not getting DLSS or a NERD equivalent isn't something I'm worried about

I haven't taken a peak at the NVN2 hack, though I am aware that bits of it are floating around, so I have no sense if NVN2 provides direct hooks for DLSS or if is a sidecar library.

One can imagine that DLSS can replace the neural network with one trained on a different set of images. Considering how much of their game library depends on a shared aesthetic and 3D models that you could produce a Nintendo specific model just by training it on hours of 16k renders of Mario Kart

 

[kimbo99]

Digital Foundry has reiterated that dev kis are out there and didn't cite any particular source

I remember hearing this too, but vaguely. Can you send the link?

 

[ILikeFeet]

I remember hearing this too, but vaguely. Can you send the link?

should be timestamped

 

[LiC]

I haven't taken a peak at the NVN2 hack, though I am aware that bits of it are floating around, so I have no sense if NVN2 provides direct hooks for DLSS or if is a sidecar library.

It's a sidecar library, though the integration in NVN2 is 100% specific to DLSS, not some kind of generic interface.

It does raise the question of how DLSS integration will work if developers choose to use OpenGL or Vulkan as their graphics API. Extension could be provided, but I doubt Nvidia would want to publish those extensions to the spec, and I don't know if they would provide extensions without publishing them. I think it's also possible that Nvidia/Nintendo would require developers to link against the DLSS library on their own if they don't use NVN, which could be part of an effort to get more developers to use NVN than did so previously.

 

[My Tulpa]

Its getting there, this graph is without last FY.

Here is up to date profit (from Installbase.com):

Switch is going to soar past the Wii+DS in revenue, profit, software sales etc

I 100% agree with this. For some reason people have decided the Switch will have a longer than usual lifecycle. It is maybe because of Nintendo's declarations which in history have not been ultimately reliable? Or because of insiders knowledge of an incoming Switch revision but which was mainly fueled by OLED conflation and speculation on a 4-8SM system.

I will ask it again, what tangible info do we have Nintendo will not follow a traditional hardware transition or atleast something akin to the PS5 and PS4 ? Or in other words what tangible info do we have Nintendo will go with only a 4K revision or will support the Switch until 2025-2026 as I have seen some saying? Do we have any tangible info on those?

The tangible evidence we have that Nitnendo will not release a successor type console in the next few years is:

- Nintendo saying Switch is at its mid point of its lifecycle 6 years in (most consoles declare this 3.5 years in)

- Nintendo saying Switch will have an unusually long console lifecycle compared to typical consoles (no successor released in its 5th/6th year on the market)

- Nintendo saying they expect growth in Switch’s 6th year which they admit is unusual since most consoles are in decline by the 6th year

- Nintendo having yet to have a price cut.

- Nintendo having yet to have an upgrade for its handheld console (they almost always do)

Your post is backwards. You should be asking if there is any tangible evidence Nintendo plans on releasing a successor in the next few years. Cause there is no such evidence.

Most portable Nintendo consoles have had around 8 year lifespans or more outside of the GBA , the thing is that people assume the lifespan of a console ends when a new one releases when this isn’t the case at all outside of cases like the Wii U. I dont think Nintendo is lying about Switch lifespan I expect it to be supported until 2025 and maybe even early 2026, that doesn’t mean a new console or revision can’t release before 2024/2025 though.

Nintendo stopped putting software on the Gameboy a year after the GBA release. Nintendo stopped putting software on the GBA a year after the DS release. Nintendo stopped putting software on the DS a year after the 3ds release.

This is how we determine lifespan (along with hardware sales/production)

Nintendo will not stop putting software on the Lite/OLED/hybrid models a year after Drake’s release.

so that's four then

bloomberg, nate, imran, grubb

for the purposes of potential miscommunication or a hoax, the primary sources don't matter because we don't know if they exist

So you are saying Bloomberg is lying about their 11 different developer sources having devkits?

You don't think using CDs or DVDs would have made a meaningful difference in the N64 and GC's sales?

No. Why would you think this?

There's no reason a Nintendo console couldn't help 3rd parties sell.

There are tons of reasons. I listed them.

Again, the only way a Nintendo console can be a 3rd party gaming machine is if Nintendo changed their 1st party games to be similar to Xbox/PlayStation 1st party games. And compete with them to have the best hardware/services to play AAA 3rd party games.

Nintendo will never do these things, for obvious reasons.

Therefore it can never happen.

But it means Nintendo lost the home console wars.

Nintendo makes wayyyy more money than Xbox and PlayStation. Nintendo as a publisher sells wayyyyy more games than Microsoft and PlayStation. (Nintendo sells more games than any publisher)

Nintendo “won”, no matter how you look at it

 

[Hermii]

not getting DLSS or a NERD equivalent isn't something I'm worried about

Pretty sure that nerd patent about the tech used in 3d all stars. What is in nvn2 was dlss the real thing.

 

[Kenka]

Celine on Installbase has further relevant input to this discussion.

So in the past few days I've updated my datasheets.
One I was especially curious about, was the annual software sales one.
Here it is, with highlighted in red the (fiscal) year in which appeared the successor.

What do you think?
For the current fiscal year Nintendo expect to sell 210M units of software but there is a good chance they'll beat the forecast...

As you can see, Nintendo last launched a successor during its current gen's software peak when it transitioned from the GBA to the NDS. And we all know that this was in reaction to the imminent PSP launch. This time, Nintendo is in no hurry to do so.

However, Sony's model with the PlayStation is different. In their case, the launch of a successor almost always happened the year after the current gen's software peak.

So which model will Nintendo adopt?

 

[My Tulpa]

I don’t think it matters how they position it as long as their is a somewhat decently lengthened cross-gen period that then moves into the new hardware having exclusive 1st party software. That is something I have been saying is what they should do.

If your selling this as a new gen with an almost immediate collapse in sales from the previous then the questions I asked are valid. Doubly so if you are trying to move on. To which a mid-gen refresh does nothing to answer that question about why cross-gen is a bad thing when the new hardware is announced.

It absolutely matters how they position Drake.

In order to make the hybrid/Lite/OLED users not think they HAVE to buy a new $500 DLSS Switch to play future Nintendo Switch games…they will have to be clear how they position it.

When the n3ds came out, all the 3ds/2ds users were clear that they would still be able to play most of the software releases.

You have absolutely no idea what the plan is. Please stop talking down to people and acting as if you know better than everyone else. Literally no one on this board knows what will happen

Er…the person I was replying to was specifically asking this forum what “the plan was”

Why are you reacting so poorly that I answered him/her? Why are you so hostile about me answering it?

- it could be Switch 2 and the successor or it could be like New 3DS. People will have their own views and have the right to express them without you acting like you’ve got the inside knowledge all the time.

Jesus Christ, I never said I had inside knowledge. There are tons of posters who keep insisting this this will be a Switch 2 type successor. Why aren’t you jumping down their throats?

This device is basically a brand new console with completely new hardware the idea that Nintendo don’t care and it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t sell well because of OG Switch sales is just ridiculous.

Sell well in terms of “main platform” sales.

Nintendo didn’t care that n3ds was a fraction of 3ds sales. Sony didn’t care that ps4 pro was a fraction of ps4 sales. Nintendo doesn’t care that OLED and Lite will be a fraction of Switch sales.

Please tell me you understand what I was saying and not purposefully being obtuse about it…

I 100% agree with this.
From insider knowledge we know Drake will receive exclusive third party games and from speculation it may eventually receive its own exclusive Nintendo games, for those games to sell especially the third party ones I think Nintendo will really really want people to buy Drake over the old Switches. That is long term business sense, this isn't buying the OLED Switch over the Switch which both have the same business ambitions. Drake would be the platform where ALL of the games can be bought, I think Nintendo would want people to transition to it as soon as possible.

Nintendo doesn’t care about how well 3rd party Drake exclusives sell. That’s the choice of those publishers. Same way Nintendo didn’t care about how Minecraft sold on the n3ds.

As for you saying there is “speculation” about Nintendo making a bunch of Drake exclusive games…well, I haven’t sern anything to suggest this.

Again, the Drake model will be expensive. (Why wouldn’t it be?). Nintendo isn’t going to expect all gamers to move to the expensive 4K model any time soon. Nintendo will keep most of their software targeting the base tx1+ profile for years. So they really don’t care if someone in 2024 buys a Drake model or an OLED tx1+ Switch model. They won’t care cause their software output will still reach both.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Celine on Installbase has further relevant input to this discussion.


As you can see, Nintendo last launched a successor during its current gen's software peak when it transitioned from the GBA to the NDS. And we all know that this was in reaction to the imminent PSP launch. This time, Nintendo is in no hurry to do so.

However, Sony's model with the PlayStation is different. In their case, the launch of a successor almost always happened the year after the current gen's software peak.

So which model will Nintendo adopt?

Thats difficult to really say, Nintendo has a lot more output that sells amazingly well on their platform and sells for years, Mario Kart 8 being the most obvious example of this. Nintendo can also sit on a title for quite a while and aren’t at the beck and call of a publisher when they are the publisher and the platform holder. Withholding a title until they find it necessary or want to release it.

Nintendo, since that failure to meet that prediction for a FY, has been undershooting all the forecasts and beating them.


Nintendo, in theory, has sufficient IPs and big brand titles that they can stay relevant until I’d say 2026-2027 without any issue and move on when they feel like they want to move on and switch (pin not intended) the platform up. They aren’t at the same position as Sony or Microsoft with respect to this Indie games aren’t going to stop existing and have been a big boon for the system, the majority of them aren’t going to try for some super high “AAAA” tier game. Sony and Microsoft bend to the whims of the third party megacorps, in this case Nintendo isn’t at such a detriment to their own benefit compared to the others.

And Nintendo can also pay for development or exclusivity of titles like they have during the whole switch era, for things like Monster Hunter Rise, Live a Live remake, MUA, etc.

They aren’t easy to read at all when using the software side as they are beyond that.

 

[Kenka]

Thats difficult to really say, Nintendo has a lot more output that sells amazingly well on their platform and sells for years, Mario Kart 8 being the most obvious example of this. Nintendo can also sit on a title for quite a while and aren’t at the beck and call of a publisher when they are the publisher and the platform holder. Withholding a title until they find it necessary or want to release it.

Nintendo, since that failure to meet that prediction for a FY, has been undershooting all the forecasts and beating them.


Nintendo, in theory, has sufficient IPs and big brand titles that they can stay relevant until I’d say 2026-2027 without any issue and move on when they feel like they want to move on and switch (pin not intended) the platform up. They aren’t at the same position as Sony or Microsoft with respect to this Indie games aren’t going to stop existing and have been a big boon for the system, the majority of them aren’t going to try for some super high “AAAA” tier game. Sony and Microsoft bend to the whims of the third party megacorps, in this case Nintendo isn’t at such a detriment to their own benefit compared to the others.

I beg to differ. Our own brainchild has pointed at hardware as a key element for indies in the future due to the arrival of tools such as Nanite (and RTXGI):

I don't share your optimism. I am not talking about nominal support for UE5, but fully functional support. If I can't actually take advantage of Nanite on the platform due to hardware constraints, then that isn't meaningful support for me. And I'm not so sure that future hardware will have the IO necessary for Nanite. We will see.

So not only the next Switch has a few boxes to check to allow for the indie development to go on, but in addition its guts must have enough raw power to make development not a hassle. I/O, is an very important metric when it comes to streaming assets and we still don't have a perfect candidate for an affordable portable device, as far as I know.

 

[Hermii]

I beg to differ. Our own brainchild has pointed at hardware as a key element for indies in the future due to the arrival of tools such as Nanite (and RTXGI):


So not only the next Switch has a few boxes to check to allow for the indie development to go on, but in addition its guts must have enough raw power to make development not a hassle. I/O, is an very important metric when it comes to streaming assets and we still don't have a perfect candidate for an affordable portable device, as far as I know.

To be fair, as brainchild also pointed out this only applies to the indies who wants to use the full feature set of ue5.

For the large amount of indies who make simpler looking games, the current switch will be fine for years to come.

 

[YolkFolk]

It absolutely matters how they position Drake.

In order to make the hybrid/Lite/OLED users not think they HAVE to buy a new $500 DLSS Switch to play future Nintendo Switch games…they will have to be clear how they position it.

When the n3ds came out, all the 3ds/2ds users were clear that they would still be able to play most of the software releases.



Er…the person I was replying to was specifically asking this forum what “the plan was”

Why are you reacting so poorly that I answered him/her? Why are you so hostile about me answering it?



Jesus Christ, I never said I had inside knowledge. There are tons of posters who keep insisting this this will be a Switch 2 type successor. Why aren’t you jumping down their throats?



Sell well in terms of “main platform” sales.

Nintendo didn’t care that n3ds was a fraction of 3ds sales. Sony didn’t care that ps4 pro was a fraction of ps4 sales. Nintendo doesn’t care that OLED and Lite will be a fraction of Switch sales.

Please tell me you understand what I was saying and not purposefully being obtuse about it…



Nintendo doesn’t care about how well 3rd party Drake exclusives sell. That’s the choice of those publishers. Same way Nintendo didn’t care about how Minecraft sold on the n3ds.

As for you saying there is “speculation” about Nintendo making a bunch of Drake exclusive games…well, I haven’t sern anything to suggest this.

Again, the Drake model will be expensive. (Why wouldn’t it be?). Nintendo isn’t going to expect all gamers to move to the expensive 4K model any time soon. Nintendo will keep most of their software targeting the base tx1+ profile for years. So they really don’t care if someone in 2024 buys a Drake model or an OLED tx1+ Switch model. They won’t care cause their software output will still reach both.

I understand what you’re saying and completely disagree.

This new machine isn’t another Lite or OLED. It’s a brand new console which will have had millions and millions more invested into it than those other two pieces of hardware.

This new device is very likely a generational leap over the current Switch in terms of output. When you release a piece of hardware with that much extra power and with that much money invested into it then it’s safe to say Nintendo will want this to be outselling the OG Switch on a regular bases within 12-24 months.

Thing is, you’re in so much denial and so set in your ways you even think it’s unlikely this new machine will get native versions of games like Resident Evil 2 and Resident Evil Village. In fact you told me a while back that this definitely won’t happen and we’ll get cloud versions instead.

You’ve even told me that porting games like Witcher 3 to Switch is no different to porting something like Resident Evil 5. This tells me you don’t really know as much as you think you do since the time and cost difference between porting those games is massive.

My take is that Nintendo will want this new machine to eventually replace the current Switch line. It will be gradual and not in your face. First party games will be on both machines for a couple of years after launch and third parties will be putting out exclusive games right out of the gate and that will include games like Resident Evil Village and Elden Ring.

 

[Mr Swine]

Latest DF direct has ~25 minutes on various FSR 2.0 questions, coming to similar conclusions as have been discussed here:

1. Console games have had TAA/TU solutions for some time, so the opening there is smaller than it appears for FSR 2.0
2. But the quality of FSR 2.0 is sufficiently high that it might become compelling in that space
3. FSR is expensive, and console games running at 4k60fps with it seem unlikely because of that
4. DLSS is much faster because of the fixed function hardware
5. And produces a better quality image, likely because of the AI approach
6. Tensor core equivalents are the direction the GPU industry is going to take for reasons that have nothing to do with gaming
7. AMD will eventually ship their own, in fact
8. So DLSS-like AI techniques are likely here to stay, simply because the hardware is here to stay
9. DLSS costs less on-die space than the equivalent amount of shader cores to run FSR
10. And DLSS is also an electricity savings as well
    
    • Alex cites something like 50w power savings for DLSS, which is something like ~11% power savings on the RTX 3090

I wonder how much if it’s on a low end GPU on laptops. Hopefully is a tad more power saving on Drake with locked frame rate

 

[Kenka]

To be fair, as brainchild also pointed out this only applies to the indies who wants to use the full feature set of ue5.

For the large amount of indies who make simpler looking games, the current switch will be fine for years to come.

Nanite and GI can reduce the efforts spent creating a game. If that is true for indies, it's true for everyone and thus, it is a critera that can determine the popularity of a platform among developers.

Personally, I except the support of Nanite, RTXGI and fast I/O to be crucial the portage of quality games on Drake. They are needed.
And yes, the conclusion is that newer hardware is needed as these techniques get democratized. Nintendo might not have pressure coming from the market but devs will want to work smarter and less if they can do so.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Pretty sure that nerd patent about the tech used in 3d all stars. What is in nvn2 was dlss the real thing.

While it is, the patent also left the door open for realtime upscaling via tensor cores. The latter of which was mentioned specifically

 

[Skittzo]

Nanite and GI can reduce the efforts spent creating a game. If that is true for indies, it's true for everyone and thus, it is a critera that can determine the popularity of a platform among developers.

Personally, I except the support of Nanite, RTXGI and fast I/O to be crucial the portage of quality games on Drake. They are needed.
And yes, the conclusion is that newer hardware is needed as these techniques get democratized. Nintendo might not have pressure coming from the market but devs will want to work smarter and less if they can do so.

Keep in mind this is literally only for games made with UE5, which will be a fairly small subset of indie games for the foreseeable future.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I beg to differ. Our own brainchild has pointed at hardware as a key element for indies in the future due to the arrival of tools such as Nanite (and RTXGI):


So not only the next Switch has a few boxes to check to allow for the indie development to go on, but in addition its guts must have enough raw power to make development not a hassle. I/O, is an very important metric when it comes to streaming assets and we still don't have a perfect candidate for an affordable portable device, as far as I know.

That’s for work that Brainchild will work on, it is not necessarily applicable in a general sense for every future indie really, he even says this on the same page several posts down:

I'm definitely not the only one concerned, but I'm not sure my concerns are representative of most devs. I just know for me, the visual fidelity of my project hinges on tech like Nanite. That may not be the case for a lot of other devs.

While I’m sure most devs would love it if something like the switch 2 just ticked all the check boxes and greatly reduced the worry and they can target their indie games for something like the switch (along with the other platforms, and steam being the lead), his is more of the exception than the norm.

Many games will still utilize UE4 for a while, and there will definitely be indies that don’t make full use of the total package on UE5. Perhaps omitting some features. At the moment, based on what is seen and mentioned online, UE5 is going through its phase of growing pains still and being optimized to be the best it could be.

My point with Nintendo having software that can last them for several years, is that predicting when Nintendo will launch a successor based on their own first party software is like predicting the position of the electron at any given time. It is very hard to do that. Electrons don’t have a fixed position really for what it’s worth.

Nintendo has first party titles for days more so than Sony and Microsoft released in a given year and are one of the biggest publishers in the industry, and several huge hitters that can keep the switch relatively relevant for years to come.

Nintendo would simply move on based on other factors + when they want to move on.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

It absolutely matters how they position Drake.

In order to make the hybrid/Lite/OLED users not think they HAVE to buy a new $500 DLSS Switch to play future Nintendo Switch games…they will have to be clear how they position it.

When the n3ds came out, all the 3ds/2ds users were clear that they would still be able to play most of the software releases.

So they really don’t. New gen or upgrade if Nintendo is clear when the cross-gen period begins & ends. So nothing I have said or your saying here is in any point in contention. Nor does this even address what I was originally commenting on in the first place which had to do with the poster talking about how a cross-gen period is bad & Nintendo needs to rapidly move people over.

 

[kimbo99]

What are the odds of Offscreen play without the dock? Sort of how smartphones work with screen casting. My only concern is then upscaling will be affected.

 

[Jafin]

What are the odds of Offscreen play without the dock? Sort of how smartphones work with screen casting. My only concern is then upscaling will be affected.

My main concern with something like that would be lag (if that's the correct term). If I cast my phone's screen to my TV there is a delay between me scrolling the screen of my phone and that scroll appearing on the TV. It's only maybe one second, but it's definitely noticeable. That's not really a big deal if you're just doing it to throw on YouTube or a movie or something, but if you are playing a game you're going to constantly be on the move in the game so that kind of lag would probably make games nigh-unplayable.

 

[Deleted member 2]

So you are saying Bloomberg is lying about their 11 different developer sources having devkits?

Of course they're not saying that, don't put such a harsh statement in their mouth.

They're just counting Bloomberg as one source, because we don't have 11 sources, Bloomberg does. We just have Bloomberg.

Hell, they're counting Bloomberg at all, which should tell you they don't think they're lying.

 

[Bosintang]

Nintendo won't release a machine possibly within striking distance of a Series S, after more than 6 years with the same hardware, and just treat it as an OLED+.
At this point of the Switch life, whichever powerful machine releases can be seen as a PS5: while there will be a transition period of 1 or 2 years with cross generation games, it will absolutely be a new generation and I don't expect Nintendo to beat aound the bush. I wouldn't even be surprised if they had an exclusive first party game on release or within the first 6 months. Maybe the next Mario, since we know nothing about it.
Also, I don't expect Nintendo's future console to release before end of 2023 or early 2024; and since we have 0 info regarding a possible release date, my guess is as good as any. All in all, 7 years is pretty standard before replacing a console.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I wonder how much if it’s on a low end GPU on laptops. Hopefully is a tad more power saving on Drake with locked frame rate

The power savings are going to be variable across games. FSR's performance (and thus power cost) varied based on how big the upscaling is. DLSS is fixed.

 

[Deleted member 887]

It's a sidecar library, though the integration in NVN2 is 100% specific to DLSS, not some kind of generic interface.

It does raise the question of how DLSS integration will work if developers choose to use OpenGL or Vulkan as their graphics API. Extension could be provided, but I doubt Nvidia would want to publish those extensions to the spec, and I don't know if they would provide extensions without publishing them. I think it's also possible that Nvidia/Nintendo would require developers to link against the DLSS library on their own if they don't use NVN, which could be part of an effort to get more developers to use NVN than did so previously.

NVidia is already providing Vulcan and DirectX DLSS versions, yes? So hopefully something similar occurs here, for portability reasons.

I am tantalized by the idea of a DLSS augmented with game specific training, though I suspect the dev cost there is exceedingly high.

 

[ILikeFeet]

NVidia is already providing Vulcan and DirectX DLSS versions, yes? So hopefully something similar occurs here, for portability reasons.

I am tantalized by the idea of a DLSS augmented with game specific training, though I suspect the dev cost there is exceedingly high.

well, you do need training hardware which is either gonna cost you a lot of money or take you a lot of time if you have the hardware or renting it. or maybe both