• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

There's no reason Nintendo can't have one of their consoles sell as well as their handhelds.
True, look at the Wii.

Unfortunately a lengthy history shows the odds on this are low like around to 10 to 1, with the losers being big losers, and only 1 winner.

This is where the concept of opportunity cost comes into play. Both making a handheld and making a console have the same R&D cost, and time cost. You can not make both of these devices with a single R&D and time expenditure, they each require their own R&D, and dedicated time.

This means, you must choose what product that R&D nest egg and time gets spent on. We have arrived at an Opportunity Cost.

opportunity-cost-definition-393313-FINAL-06131b369c8e4acdbc81d996f20cf4cb.png



So it's not about being successful, it's about being the most successful you can get with the single investment.

If 90% of Nintendo's past consoles have been sub 50 millions sellers, and all of Nintendo's past handhelds have been above 50 million, and actually more around 100 million, making a console is an unacceptable opportunity cost, as it costs a comparable investment to make either one.

Can make 2 products, potential combinations:

Potential console success 70 million.
Potential console success 70 million.
(This would be the second best selling Nintendo home console of all time)

Total: 140 million.


Potential console success 70 million.
Potential handheld success 120 million.

Total: 190 million.

Potential handheld success 120 million.
Potential handheld success 120 million.

Total: 240 million.

Making a console, even the second most successful console in Nintendo history, would simply be an unacceptable opportunity cost, as using that same time and money spent on either a handheld or a console would result in a larger return making handhelds.
 
0
Yep. I'm still thinking that end of 2023 or early 2024 is the likeliest timeframe for releasing this new console, even though having such opinion used to make people very upset on this topic.

The Nvidia leaks show this Drake thing having been worked on for awhile now, what since late 2019? There is no way they sit on this SoC for another two years.

There is no way devs are working on devkit specs for 4 years.

Although that's true, there's still information Nvidia hasn't revealed directly about Orin (e.g. which process node is used for Orin, which was mentioned indirectly, not directly).

Right, and arent a bunch of Orin products supposed to be being manufactured this year?

the fact that everything stopped on a dime when Nintendo denied their existence really has me thinking that the whole thing was a hoax or misunderstanding

Developers misunderstood what the device they got in 2020 and have been developing on for all this time?

I’m not sure if it will rapidly decline especially if they cannot adequately supply it for a bit, much like we are seeing with the current gen. Doubly so if there is a lengthy cross-gen period.

Xbox one slim and Xbox one X and ps4 slim and ps4 pro sales dropped to relatively ZERO (and in most cases literally zero) when ps5/SeriesSX was launched.

Why can't Nintendo just make a traditional home console?

61.91 million > 49.10 million > 32.93 million > 21.74 million > 13.56 million

Why not?

People would if it didn't have any stupid hardware decisions like cartridges for the N64 or mini-discs for the Gamecube. How hard is it to just make a console on par with the PS5 or Xbox Series X without any stupid hardware decisions?

N64 and the GC sales had nothing to do with its power or hardware.

No matter what it was, it wasn’t going to be a primarily 3rd party gaming machine. Nintendo games dont help modern 3rd party gaming sell on Nintendo machines. Ever since 3rd party console gaming shifted to being like popular pc games of the day, this is true.

Nintendo would have to completely change their 1st party design and would have to shift to prioritizing 3rd party game sales over 1st party…like Microsoft and Sony and Steam do…in order for Nintendo machines to get “proper support”
 
It’s either coming out relatively soon (in the next 5 months or more) or Nintendo has decided to go with switch till late 2024 or early 2025 (doesn’t seem likely) and scrap the drake
I’m sorry, but this literally makes no sense, lol. Why would 2023 be completely off the table no matter what?
 
I’m sorry, but this literally makes no sense, lol. Why would 2023 be completely off the table no matter what?
A lot of people seem to have decided that the switch must have a much longer than normal lifespan.
Perhaps because of its high sales (though it brings to mind the DS and PS2) or maybe because of Nintendo's vague statements about it being mid way through its life.

I understand why people think this, however, I don't agree with it. First, Nintendo always lies about when they have new hardware coming out, it's just something they do. But as for the sales, I see that as too short sighted. The switch could sell a lot in 2023 but a switch 2 could still sell more.

For example, let's say that even with no new hardware next year Nintendo could sell 16 million. Incredibly impressive in the console's 7th year on the market. However, a new console would probably sell more, so why would they do that? There's no financial reason to extend a generation just to extend a generation. You don't do something just because you can, for the novelty of it. Nintendo doesn't do a 9 year console generation unless they believe it makes them more money than a 7 year generation, it's that simple. And right now we have little reason to believe that would be the case.

With that said it is a more complicated debate if you compare a pro in 2023 vs a new console. But what I'm saying here is if we don't see a pro by early 2023 then we should expect a late 2023-early 2024 switch 2 release, because without a pro there is 0 point in extending the generation.
 
There's no reason Nintendo can't have one of their consoles sell as well as their handhelds.

The only reason most people buy traditional home consoles is to play modern AAA 3rd party games. It’s simply a cheap/more convenient pc alternative. Always has been since the 90’s

So, for that reason, a traditional home Nintendo home console will always not sell that well cause it will never be a primary AAA 3rd party gaming machine.

What’s the plan then if the Drake can’t be stocked in high enough numbers to replace those who would have bought a Switch? Or if this device has slim margins like OLED?

It would probably be prudent for Nintendo to make sure the Switch can still sell until the Drake gets its feet underneath itself.

The plan is to position Drake as a mid gen upgrade type option for those who want it. They will still offer the other models for those who don’t.

That way, they don’t have to care…at all…how much/fast the Drake model sells comparatively or how how they price it.

One of the advantages of a Home Console: it wouldn't cannibalize sales from standard Switch and OLED Switch. It would extend Switch's life as it wouldn't have exclusive games (just exclusive premium modes). And it could combine with the current Switch by streaming the Home Console to the current Switch when you're at home.

I actually don't see it as a bad idea, especially considering the fact that they couldn't sell many consoles due to the current goblal ship shortage. And in the near future after this crisis (2025-26), they could offer the same Home Console as a hybrid or handheld console with exclusive games.

Exactly. It's not about doing a home console with exclusive games, but a home console with the same games from Switch but in premium conditions like 60fps o 4K.

I'm not talking about a home console with new games. I'm talking about playing next Zelda at 4k/60fps in the home console and 900p/30fps in the current Switch. That way, it doesn't split the teams for development.

I mean…aren’t you describing exactly what this Drake model is meant to do? Be the expensive option for gamers who do want to play the Switch library with better resolution/performance?

They don’t need to ditch portable hardware to do this, clearly.

People who talk about something a stationary console can do that a hybrid can’t…are literally talking about hardware power differentials where Nintendo is meant to divide their software design and divide their focus between two separate platforms

They arent going to do that anymore.
 
A lot of people seem to have decided that the switch must have a much longer than normal lifespan.
Perhaps because of its high sales (though it brings to mind the DS and PS2) or maybe because of Nintendo's vague statements about it being mid way through its life.

I understand why people think this, however, I don't agree with it. First, Nintendo always lies about when they have new hardware coming out, it's just something they do. But as for the sales, I see that as too short sighted. The switch could sell a lot in 2023 but a switch 2 could still sell more.

For example, let's say that even with no new hardware next year Nintendo could sell 16 million. Incredibly impressive in the console's 7th year on the market. However, a new console would probably sell more, so why would they do that? There's no financial reason to extend a generation just to extend a generation. You don't do something just because you can, for the novelty of it. Nintendo doesn't do a 9 year console generation unless they believe it makes them more money than a 7 year generation, it's that simple. And right now we have little reason to believe that would be the case.

With that said it is a more complicated debate if you compare a pro in 2023 vs a new console. But what I'm saying here is if we don't see a pro by early 2023 then we should expect a late 2023-early 2024 switch 2 release, because without a pro there is 0 point in extending the generation.
The thing is that that person said it has to be this year or after 2023. So somehow November 2022 is fine, but March 2023 isn’t possible.
 
Its colossally exspensive in R&D and both Playstation and Xbox spend huge amounts moneyhatting 3rd parties, there's a reason Nintendo is neally twice as profitable as Playstation.
That’s because they both crunch the numbers differently.

It’s not really simple to compare how Sony and Nintendo do their financials. The other “gaming” company that does their financials similar to Sony is Microsoft.
 
Why can't Nintendo just make a traditional home console?

Please read the answers in your threads you created before continuing to spam this question around the site


 
0
A Switch "Home" that would just connect to the TV, and that came with a single joycon/Pro Controller, if they priced it around 100€, even bundle it with a game... would be a huge success.
The 2DS at one point was 80€ with Mario Kart 7 included, and it sold like crazy, I know people that even bought multiple consoles for the kids.

People are going to have to buy multiple TV sets for their kids in order to use this device you are talking about.

In other words, there is no value appeal for such a device over the Lite and hybrid model.
 
0

Mm hm. So the fact there are details about Orin we still don’t know from leaks or otherwise despite SoC’s being produced and product being delivered this year means Drake Switch could easily start production this year and we might still not get much info about it from leaks or Nvidia.

A lot of people seem to have decided that the switch must have a much longer than normal lifespan.
Perhaps because of its high sales (though it brings to mind the DS and PS2) or maybe because of Nintendo's vague statements about it being mid way through its life.

Most likely because Nintendo literally said they expect the Switch to have an unusually long lifecycle compared to a typical console lifecycle.

Direct quote. Nothing vague.

And yes the mid point talk the last two years, sure. 3.5 years into the ps4, Sony was talking about entering the final stages of its lifecycle.

And Nintendo was talking about growth for this FY. Before the supply issues, they were talking about hardware growth even. What console had growth in the year it’s successor launched or even right before? Successors are launched usually after a couple years of downward trends in hardware sales.


For example, let's say that even with no new hardware next year Nintendo could sell 16 million. Incredibly impressive in the console's 7th year on the market. However, a new console would probably sell more, so why would they do that? There's no financial reason to extend a generation just to extend a generation. You don't do something just because you can, for the novelty of it. Nintendo doesn't do a 9 year console generation unless they believe it makes them more money than a 7 year generation, it's that simple. And right now we have little reason to believe that would be the case.

With that said it is a more complicated debate if you compare a pro in 2023 vs a new console. But what I'm saying here is if we don't see a pro by early 2023 then we should expect a late 2023-early 2024 switch 2 release, because without a pro there is 0 point in extending the generation.

Whatever new model that is released within the next year will be positioned as a “pro” designed to help extend the Switch lifecycle and keep demand gaming high for those who might otherwise drift away from too old of hardware (exactly why the ps4 pro and Xbox one X existed)

There is no reason to believe Nintendo is going to scap this Drake SoC and ask for devkits back and try something different 2-4 years from now.

No? We don't have a primary source after all

We have almost a dozen different sources that higher powered switch devkits exist.
 
I think what he meant is that either there will be a pro or they will just wait a few years and launch a new console.

Yeah that was what I meant more or less. Release a console later this year/early next year or ride out switch as long as possible 2024/2025
 
0
A lot of people seem to have decided that the switch must have a much longer than normal lifespan.
Perhaps because of its high sales (though it brings to mind the DS and PS2) or maybe because of Nintendo's vague statements about it being mid way through its life.

I understand why people think this, however, I don't agree with it. First, Nintendo always lies about when they have new hardware coming out, it's just something they do. But as for the sales, I see that as too short sighted. The switch could sell a lot in 2023 but a switch 2 could still sell more.

For example, let's say that even with no new hardware next year Nintendo could sell 16 million. Incredibly impressive in the console's 7th year on the market. However, a new console would probably sell more, so why would they do that? There's no financial reason to extend a generation just to extend a generation. You don't do something just because you can, for the novelty of it. Nintendo doesn't do a 9 year console generation unless they believe it makes them more money than a 7 year generation, it's that simple. And right now we have little reason to believe that would be the case.

With that said it is a more complicated debate if you compare a pro in 2023 vs a new console. But what I'm saying here is if we don't see a pro by early 2023 then we should expect a late 2023-early 2024 switch 2 release, because without a pro there is 0 point in extending the generation.

I 100% agree with this. For some reason people have decided the Switch will have a longer than usual lifecycle. It is maybe because of Nintendo's declarations which in history have not been ultimately reliable? Or because of insiders knowledge of an incoming Switch revision but which was mainly fueled by OLED conflation and speculation on a 4-8SM system.

I will ask it again, what tangible info do we have Nintendo will not follow a traditional hardware transition or atleast something akin to the PS5 and PS4 ? Or in other words what tangible info do we have Nintendo will go with only a 4K revision or will support the Switch until 2025-2026 as I have seen some saying? Do we have any tangible info on those?
 
I 100% agree with this. For some reason people have decided the Switch will have a longer than usual lifecycle. It is maybe because of Nintendo's declarations which in history have not been ultimately reliable? Or because of insiders knowledge of an incoming Switch revision but which was mainly fueled by OLED conflation and speculation on a 4-8SM system.
Most portable Nintendo consoles have had around 8 year lifespans or more outside of the GBA , the thing is that people assume the lifespan of a console ends when a new one releases when this isn’t the case at all outside of cases like the Wii U. I dont think Nintendo is lying about Switch lifespan I expect it to be supported until 2025 and maybe even early 2026, that doesn’t mean a new console or revision can’t release before 2024/2025 though.
 
from my count we only have two
Bloomberg has 11, there is also Nate and Imran. Not sure if Grubb ever confirmed devkits but he at least seemed to hear something at some point.

So 13-14 by my count, just from the top of my head.
 
Bloomberg has 11, there is also Nate and Imran. Not sure if Grubb ever confirmed devkits but he at least seemed to hear something at some point.

So 13-14 by my count, just from the top of my head.
so that's four then

bloomberg, nate, imran, grubb

for the purposes of potential miscommunication or a hoax, the primary sources don't matter because we don't know if they exist
 
The more I think about it the more I think a 8-9 year life doesn't really make sense. You can basically break Nintendo's video game business down into three components now:
Hardware (consoles/controllers)
Software (games)
Subscriptions (NSO)

When Nintendo evaluates potential business decisions, they ultimately decide based on how it affects sales in these 3 areas.
So let's ask the same question, how would a 7 year vs 9 year generation affect these 3 areas of sales?

Hardware
I think it's extremely likely that Nintendo will sell more hardware, both consoles and in particular controllers if they launch a new system late 2023 to early 2024 vs waiting until late 2025. Sales of the base switch unit and switch lite have been collapsing for a while and the OLED boost is not gonna last forever. Even if they launch another major revision, it runs into the same issue in 2024. So I think there's no real question that a new console would sell more hardware than a revision, and no revision would be a disaster.

Software
Nintendo will most likely sell more software with a new console launch late 2023 or early 2024 rather than with a revision as well. This is because they can launch the next big 3D Mario and Mario Kart, which would easily sell a combined 40 million or more in one year. Combine that with other launch year titles and software sales would spike dramatically. Additionally, as happens with all consoles, the switch's active audience is gonna start dropping as early adopters start to get bored of it. So a new console would probably sell more software as well.

Subscription
Here is the single biggest reason I believe Nintendo would benefit from launching a new console. A new console would give them a lot of opportunity to revamp and improve NSO. For one they can finally replace the switch's horrific wifi adapter. But they can also improve the virtual console by offering more powerful consoles, particularly the gamecube and wii. And on top of all that they can use the increased power of the hardware to further improve the emulation. I don't know if the switch 2 could pull off 4k gamecube games, but at the very least 1080p would be easy, and potentially a middle ground with 1440p. They could even explore options like anti aliasing. With these areas and the potential to reinvent the service to some degree, I believe subscription sales would improve greatly with the launch of a new console.

After thinking about it and analyzing the three different aspects of their video game business, I don't believe there is any financial explanation for running a 9 year generation.
 
so that's four then

bloomberg, nate, imran, grubb

for the purposes of potential miscommunication or a hoax, the primary sources don't matter because we don't know if they exist
Miscommunication or hoax from 11 different sources? Honestly it's way, way harder to believe that (especially from an outlet like Bloomberg) than it is to believe Nintendo scrapped this thing.

I honestly don't understand how that report can be doubted. There is no logical line of reasoning available to suggest that it could have been fabricated or somehow misunderstood.
 
I believe there was a developer (Matt?) on Resetera who hinted at devkits as well? With rather vague hints of 'neat" and "very neat".
 
iirc we heard about dev kits in late 2020. I can't remember if it was from Nate only but I believe the Matt comment around 'neat' 'very neat' was around that time, as well as Dusk Golem's comment a Pro existed. This was at the old place, and in late 2020/early 21, leading up to the OLED, which is why when Mochi first dropped the news around a new Switch with OLED panels , and a dock with a 4k Chip people thought it clinched the Pro rumors.

Bloomberg was right on every detail except the reported 11 devs with kits obviously weren't on OLED and the OLED wasn't a Pro. So either something got lost in translation or more likely, two devices were in play.
 
Last edited:
The more I think about it the more I think a 8-9 year life doesn't really make sense. You can basically break Nintendo's video game business down into three components now:
Hardware (consoles/controllers)
Software (games)
Subscriptions (NSO)

When Nintendo evaluates potential business decisions, they ultimately decide based on how it affects sales in these 3 areas.
So let's ask the same question, how would a 7 year vs 9 year generation affect these 3 areas of sales?

Hardware
I think it's extremely likely that Nintendo will sell more hardware, both consoles and in particular controllers if they launch a new system late 2023 to early 2024 vs waiting until late 2025. Sales of the base switch unit and switch lite have been collapsing for a while and the OLED boost is not gonna last forever. Even if they launch another major revision, it runs into the same issue in 2024. So I think there's no real question that a new console would sell more hardware than a revision, and no revision would be a disaster.
Good post. Here’s another thing to consider when it comes to hardware. Graph courtesy of Celine at Install Base:

H6nSFJx.jpg


Since the introduction of the Game Boy, Nintendo have generally sold at least 20 million units of hardware per fiscal year. The years when they didn’t were some of their most difficult times (late 16-bit crash, mid-late 3DS/Wii U days). Whatever their next hardware is marketed as, I don’t think Nintendo will sit there and let Switch sales dip, even to a respectable number like 15 million, without something else to pick up the slack.
 
The Nvidia leaks show this Drake thing having been worked on for awhile now, what since late 2019? There is no way they sit on this SoC for another two years.

There is no way devs are working on devkit specs for 4 years.



Right, and arent a bunch of Orin products supposed to be being manufactured this year?



Developers misunderstood what the device they got in 2020 and have been developing on for all this time?



Xbox one slim and Xbox one X and ps4 slim and ps4 pro sales dropped to relatively ZERO (and in most cases literally zero) when ps5/SeriesSX was launched.



61.91 million > 49.10 million > 32.93 million > 21.74 million > 13.56 million



N64 and the GC sales had nothing to do with its power or hardware.

No matter what it was, it wasn’t going to be a primarily 3rd party gaming machine. Nintendo games dont help modern 3rd party gaming sell on Nintendo machines. Ever since 3rd party console gaming shifted to being like popular pc games of the day, this is true.

Nintendo would have to completely change their 1st party design and would have to shift to prioritizing 3rd party game sales over 1st party…like Microsoft and Sony and Steam do…in order for Nintendo machines to get “proper support”
You don't think using CDs or DVDs would have made a meaningful difference in the N64 and GC's sales?

There's no reason a Nintendo console couldn't help 3rd parties sell.

Or do you think Nintendo's business model and game design philosophies are fundamentally incompatible with those of AAA devs?
 
Thats bullshit.
Argue with Sony and Nintendo, not with me babes.

I’m not the one.

Sorry.

They do not crunch the numbers in the same way, and if you looked at both of their financials you’d get a clearer picture of it. Well, the way they do revenue isn’t the same that is. I believe Sony switched it up a couple years ago, as in within the last decade?

There are no dev kits for the OLED model, nor did devs even know of that
While there aren’t OLED model devkits it seems, there does seem to be a newer devkit with more RAM (8GB) unlike the old one that had 6GB I think? But those came out after it seems.
 
0
There are. The only differences were extra memory for debugging, and you know an oled screen. But still, there are OLED devkits.
I don’t remember if there were any indications of it being an OLED, all I remember was that it had a bit more RAM for debugging but nothing on it having an OLED display itself.
 
You don't think using CDs or DVDs would have made a meaningful difference in the N64 and GC's sales?

There's no reason a Nintendo console couldn't help 3rd parties sell.

Or do you think Nintendo's business model and game design philosophies are fundamentally incompatible with those of AAA devs?
You made a thread about this topic. You don't have to derail this this one.

We are all perfectly happy and at peace with the fact that Nintendo isn't making more dedicated home consoles. And that's not what this thread is about anyway.
 
I don’t remember if there were any indications of it being an OLED, all I remember was that it had a bit more RAM for debugging but nothing on it having an OLED display itself.
Quoting DF:

"With that said, the firm does recognise the need for developers to test their games on the new screen. With that in mind, a new ADEV development model is being made available to co-exist alongside the existing SDEV and EDEV versions. For reasons undisclosed by the Nintendo, this machine ships with 8GB of onboard memory compared to the 6GB in the other development models and the 4GB of all retail units."

 
User banned for one week for disruptive posts, please see the mod edit below for full explanation
And why does that matter unless you happen to be a console warrior?
Because it means Nintendo has lost. Sony has beaten them.

Mod edit: 1 week ban: While moderation appreciates the user has recently expressed personal reasons on the forum re: repetitive nature of specific talking points, we have to consider the greater community and keep posts that instigate console warring to a certain standard. Hopefully some time away will help disengage - Donnie, paranoodle, blondkayvon, Mazi

Please note, the ban reasoning was provided as a mod edit in this circumstance to navigate around the relatively small space we have to provide reasoning, and to be able provide the full reasoning we felt was appropriate for this action.
 
@CastletonSnob

Since you have previously cited power as a reason why Nintendo should make a dedicated home console, and since we are in the future Nintendo hardware thread, what are your thoughts on the specs of the next Switch from the recent Nvidia leak i.e. 12 SMs, DLSS, RT, etc. ?
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom