Welcome everyone!
Before anyone asks, the secret identity of Black Knight, a fictional superhero in the Marvel Comics, is Dane Whitman, which is also rumoured to be the codename of the DLSS model*'s SoC. A tape-out is the final phase of designing integrated circuits before manufacturing begins. And Danes are people who are from Denmark. Also, I'd like to say thank you to
@Foltzie for the title recommendation!
Anyway, the purpose of this thread is to be the one and only place on FamiBoards to speculate and discuss news and/or rumours that may or may not pertain to future Nintendo hardware and technology.
Disagreeing with other members is a normal and inevitable part of speculation and discussion. But please don't dismiss the opinions of other members when speculating and discussing. And the site rules apply to this thread, such as:
- no trolling
- no sexual and/or objectifying posts
- no bigoted posts
- no platform wars
- no hostility towards other members
- no engaging in off-site drama
- no accusations of astroturfing
Anyone found violating any of those rules will be issued appropriate punishments by the mods, ranging from a warning to a permanent ban. (Please don't get banned; this thread isn't worth it.)
And there are a couple of rules exclusive to here that I hope the mods will strictly enforce, such as:
- no unwarranted negativity
- no off-topic, throwaway comments (e.g. "I'm posting, so I can get access to the hidden post.", "Nintendo's gonna Nintendo.", etc.)
- no incessant nagging towards potential insiders, reputable insiders, and/or reputable sources, for more information
It should be noted that any rumours in this thread should be taken with a huge grain of salt, including rumours from reputable insiders and sources. Plans can and do change, so there's a good chance rumours can turn out to be wrong.
And please avoid discussing aspects other than the hardware and technology aspects of games if possible.
Do you feel overwhelmed by the sheer amount of speculation and discussion?
No worries! I'll be continuously updating this thread with any news and rumours coming from the speculation and discussion as quickly and as often as I possibly can.
It should be noted that any links to potentially relevant rumours from potential insiders will be hidden to people who at least do a couple of posts in order to protect potential insiders. But not all potentially relevant rumours involve potential insiders.
The newest news and rumours will be on the very top whilst the oldest will be on the very bottom.
Last updated: 13 October 2021 13:46 (UTC-07:00)
~October 2021~
Relevant rumours:
13 October 2021 → Nate the Hate:
NateDrake has heard from developer sources that large third party developers received devkits for the DLSS model* on late 2020, with smaller third party developers receiving dev kits for the DLSS model* on June 2021. The DLSS model*'s currently positioned to third party developers as a revision, similar to the Game Boy Color and the New Nintendo 3DS. Third party developers are developing games exclusive to the DLSS model*. And third party developers are targeting completing the development of games for the DLSS model* by late 2022. Nintendo has informed third party developers that Nintendo plans the release window for the DLSS model* to be around late 2022 to early 2023. The DLSS model* can output games in 4K using DLSS. And third party developers are excited about DLSS model*.
4 October 2021 → Digital Foundry:
Digital Foundry believes a next-gen console exists and 4K dev kits are out there. Digital Foundry also believes a 2022 launch date for a next-gen Nintendo Switch is unlikely, but not necessarily due to the global chip shortage, since Nintendo probably has booked orders years in advance. And Digital Foundry believes it's unlikely the OLED model was originally planned to have 4K capability, but was ultimately canned, due to the sheer costs of creating in-development consoles, although there may be an outside chance, citing the Tegra variant of the Nintendo 3DS dev kits as an example.
~September 2021~
Relevant news:
30 September 2021 → Nintendo European Research & Development (NERD) via FreePatentsOnline.com: Nintendo European Research & Development (NERD) filed two patents (
here and
here) titled "Systems and Methods for Machine Learned Image Conversion" on 25 March 2020, which was published by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) on 30 September 2021.
30 September 2021 → Zynga via Kotaku:
Zynga denies the Bloomberg report, mentioning that as the developer for Star Wars: Hunters on the Nintendo Switch, Zynga confirms that none of the devkits in possession or are in receipt are the 4K devkits.
29 September 2021 → Nintendo:
Nintendo mentioned to investors that Bloomberg falsely claimed that Nintendo's supplying tools for developing games for a Nintendo Switch model with 4K support. And that Nintendo has no plans to release any other Nintendo Switch model other than the OLED model.
Relevant rumours:
30 September 2021 → Gamereactor Spain:
Gamereactor Spain has learned that at least one third party developer company is working on a 4K game for a Nintendo console.
29 September 2021 → Twitter:
Dave Gibson mentioned that Nintendo isn't lying to investors about:
29 September 2021 → Bloomberg:
Bloomberg identified 11 third party developer companies, including Zynga Inc, that were in possession of dev kits for the DLSS model*, which can transmit video to a TV or a monitor at 4K, although Bloomberg believes the number is much higher. The DLSS model*, which is capable of running 4K games, isn't expected to release until late 2022 according to people familiar with plans. The reason why the DLSS model* wasn't released in late 2021 was due to component shortages according to a person familiar with Nintendo's hardware planning. Nintendo had already send dev kits for the DLSS model* to third party developers and asked to develop games that support 4K by the time the OLED model was announced. The third party developers in possession of the dev kits for the DLSS model* expect 4K games for the DLSS model* to be released during or after 2H 2022. And supplies for the ABF substrates, which are necessary for the DLSS model*, are expected to be fully booked until 2025, according to an executive of one of the component supplier companies supplying ABF substrates to Nintendo.
Potentially relevant news:
27 September 2021 → IM Motors:
IM Motors unveiled pictures of the Orin X prototype, which will be integrated into the electronic control unit (ECU) of the IM AD intelligent driving system. Orin X, which is fabricated using a 7 nm** process node, features a brand new Nvidia GPU and a 12 core Arm CPU, which is capable of delivering 254 TOPS, making Orin X 10x more performant than Mobileye's EyeQ5, and 3.5x more performant than Tesla's HW3.
21 September 2021 → LinkedIn:
Nintendo Technology Development, Inc. (Redmond, WA) has posted a contract job listing for a software engineer for display technology and development, with mention of one of the duties being researching technologies and algorithms that's going to be used for post-processing images.
~August 2021~
Relevant rumours:
15 August 2021 → ResetEra:
NateDrake mentioned no third party developers have heard about the DLSS model* until late 2020.
Potentially relevant news:
25 August 2021 → JEDEC:
JEDEC announces the publication of the standard for the XFM Embedded and Removable Memory Device (XFMD), a new universal data storage media that provides a NVMe to PCIe Express interface in a small, thin form factor.
10 August 2021 → Kioxia:
Kioxia announced that Kioxia's 256 GB and 512 GB UFS 3.1 chips, which have 30% improved random read and 40% improved random write compared to the predecessors, are being sampled.
3 August 2021 → Parade Technologies:
Parade Technologies announces that the PS195 and the PS196 DisplayPort 2.0 to HDMI 2.1 converters are sampling now.
~July 2021~
Relevant news:
19 July 2021 → Nvidia:
Nvidia publicly released the Nvidia DLSS SDK 2.2.1, which adds a sharpening slider, support for Linux, and an auto-exposure option, as well as brings bug fixes & stability Improvements. Nvidia DLSS SDK 2.2.1 is meant to be directly integrated into custom/proprietary engines.
5 July 2021 → Nintendo via Nintendo Everything:
Shuntaro Furukawa mentioned that Nintendo is continuously working on development of hardware, software, and accessories, but he cannot comment on any specific products currently under development, referring to the shareholder's question about reports on the new Nintendo Switch model.
Relevant rumours:
24 July 2021 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi mentions that Orin and Dane are using Samsung's 8N process node and the GPU on Orin and Dane is based on the Lovelace architecture.
10 July 2021 → ResetEra:
NateDrake has heard from certain third party developers with access to the devkits with DLSS, which aren't the ADEV devkits, that Nintendo has touted the DLSS model* as a revision rather than next-gen hardware.
8 July 2021 → ResetEra:
The reason why the DLSS model*'s SoC hasn't been taped out yet is because Nintendo's goals haven't been achieved in some way. (Multiple posts below post #15,590 have quoted the original post before it was redacted.)
Potentially relevant news:
28 July 2021 → JEDEC:
JEDEC officially announces LPDDR5X, which has a speed extension of 8,533 MT/s, in comparison to 6,400 MT/s for LPDDR5.
~June 2021~
Relevant news:
29 June 2021 → 3DJuegos:
Larian Studios Barcelona mentioned that Nintendo asked third party developers for feedback regarding potential future hardware upgrades. And Larian Studios Barcelona told Nintendo to bring out new hardware with more power and more memory, or risk having the new hardware become like the New Nintendo 3DS, being totally removed from the real world.
Potentially relevant news:
23 June 2021 → Lexar:
Lexar announces the development of SD Express 7.0 and microSD 7.0 Express cards. Lexar's SD Express 7.0 and microSD 7.0 Express cards uses Silicon Motion's SM2708 controller chip, runs on the PCIe 3.0 interface, and can achieve up to 824 MB/s in sequential read speeds and 410 MB/s in sequential write speeds. The maximum capacity for Lexar's SD Express 7.0 and microSD 7.0 Express cards are 512 MB and 256 MB respectively. Lexar plans to launch the SD Express 7.0 and microSD 7.0 Express cards in 2022.
1 June 2021 → Micron:
Micron announces that the company will be shipping the world's first 1α-node based LPDDR4X DRAM in volume on June 2021. Micron also announces the company is sampling 128 GB and 256 GB densities of Micron's 96-layer NAND for Micron UFS 3.1 for automotive applications. Micron UFS 3.1 offers 2x sequential read performance and 50% faster sequential write performance compared to Micron UFS 2.1.
Relevant rumours:
28 June 2021 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi mentions that Dane, the codename for the DLSS model*'s SoC, is based on Samsung's 8 nm process node. And kopite7kimi mentions that Lovelace is roughly similar to Ampere, architecturally speaking.
11 June 2021 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi reiterates that the GPU on the DLSS model*'s SoC is based on the Lovelace architecture.
10 June 2021 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi claims that the DLSS model*'s SoC is a customised version of Orin, with the model number T239.
8 June 2021 → ResetEra:
More developers are going to have access to the DLSS model*'s dev kits during the week of E3 2021.
~May 2021~
Potentially relevant news:
25 May 2021 → Arm via Anandtech:
Arm officially announces the first consumer Armv9 CPUs, the Cortex-X2, the Cortex-A710, and the Cortex-A510.
Arm also announced a new L3 design called the DynamIQ Shared Unit-110 (DSU-110) that has up to 16 MB of L3 cache, has up to a 5x increase in aggregate bandwidth, and allows for the following CPU cluster configurations:
~April 2021~
Relevant news:
10 April 2021 → Nikkei via Nintendo Everything:
Shuntaro Furukawa mentions that whilst Nintendo constantly thinks of ideas for new ideas, many of them aren't feasible due to cost and technology limitations. And if any of the ideas becomes feasible, Nintendo devotes resources into developing the technology.
Potentially relevant news:
20 April 2021 → Nvidia via United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO):
Nvidia filed a patent for a haptic control interface that induces haptic effects using machine learning on 24 September 2019, which was granted by the USPTO on 20 April 2021.
20 April 2021 → Nvidia via ResetEra:
Nvidia briefly went over the specs of Orin during the "DRIVE AGX Hardware Update with NVIDIA Orin" session at GTC 2021. The amount of transistors increased from 17 billion transistors to 21 billion transistors. The performance increased from 200 INT8 TOPS to 254 INT8 TOPS. And the memory bandwidth increased from 200 GB/s to 205 GB/s.
12 April 2021 → Nvidia:
Nvidia formally announced the Atlan SoC during the GTC 2021 keynote, which runs at 1,000 TOPs, and features the Grace-Next CPU, the Ampere-Next CPU, etc. The Atlan SoC is planned to be in automakers' 2025 models.
7 April 2021 → Silicon Motion via Anandtech:
Silicon Motion announces the SM2708, Silicon Motion's first controller to support the SD Express interface. The SM2708 is a two-lane controller running at PCIe 3.0 speeds and is capable of sequential transfer speeds of 1,700 MB/s.
Potentially relevant rumour:
28 April 2021 →
kopite7kimi mentions that Orin and H100 are the only products from Nvidia so far that's based on the Lovelace architecture.
~March 2021~
Potentially relevant news:
30 March 2021 → Arm via Anandtech:
Arm formally introduces the Armv9 architecture, with the main goals being security, AI, and improved vector & DSP capabilities. Arm mentions that Matterhorn and Makalu, the codenames for the next-generation Cortex-A CPUs, are expected to have a 30% IPC gain over a span of the next two generations. And Arm's working on variable rate shading (VRS), ray tracing, and advanced rendering technique for future Mali GPUs. Arm says to expect Armv9 CPU designs to be unveiled later in 2021.
Relevant rumours:
24 March 2021 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi implies in a reply to VideoCardz's article of Bloomberg's article of the new Nintendo Switch model on 22 March 2021 that the new Nintendo Switch model's SoC features a GPU based on the Lovelace architecture. And kopite7kimi mentions that Orin might feature one Lovelace GPC (graphics processing cluster).
8 March 2021 → ResetEra:
The DLSS model*'s SoC hasn't been taped out as of March 2021.
~February 2021~
Relevant news:
27 February 2021 → Nikkei via Nintendo Everything:
When asked about former president and CEO of Nintendo Co. Ltd., Hiroshi Yamauchi saying that "there is no relation between how fun a game is and how good the hardware is", Shuntaro Furukawa, the current president and CEO of Nintendo Co. Ltd., mentions that whilst Hiroshi Yamauchi's words are always on his mind, some parts of Nintendo's philosophy must change as times change.
17 February 2021 → Nikkei via Video Games Chronicle:
Shuntaro Furukawa, the president and CEO of Nintendo Co. Ltd., mentions that rather than having a specific time frame for hardware development, Nintendo's "constantly researching technology" in order to offer consumers new forms of entertainment. Nintendo hopes that the Nintendo Switch can stay in the market for another 4 years. Shuntaro Furukawa acknowledges that Nintendo's competing against not only video games, but also all forms of entertainment. And he emphasises that "If we [Nintendo] don't make fresh and surprising proposals to new customers, we will always be forgotten" since consumers will eventually become tired of a product.
Potentially relevant news:
15 February 2021 → TechPowerUp:
Transcend announces the launch of Transcend's CFexpress 820 Type B Memory Card, which supports the NVMe PCIe Gen 3x2 interface, and has sequential read and write speeds of up to 1,700 MB/s and 1,300 MB/s respectively.
~January 2021~
Relevant rumour:
7 January 2021 → Economic Daily News:
Macronix provides Nintendo samples of Macronix's 48-layer NAND flash.
Potentially relevant news:
9 January 2021 → NIO via VideoCardz:
NIO announces the ET7 sedan, which will be powered by Adam, a supercomputer powered by 4 Orin SoCs, which features 48 Cortex-A78AE cores, 256 3rd Gen Tensor Cores, 8,096 CUDA cores, and 68 billion transistors.
7 January 2021 & 8 January 2021 → Mercedes-Benz via YouTube & Nvidia:
During CES 2021, Mercedes-Benz announces that the Mercedes-Benz User Experience (MBUX) Hyperscreen is powered by a SoC that has 8 CPU cores and 24 GB of RAM with a max bandwidth of 46.6 GB/s. And Nvidia confirms that the Mercedes-Benz User Experience (MBUX) Hyperscreen is powered by Nvidia's GPUs.
Potentially relevant rumour:
14 January 2021 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi suggests that the Orin SoC is fabricated using Samsung's 8N+ process node and features a GPU based on the Lovelace architecture.
~December 2020~
Potentially relevant news:
8 December 2020 → JEDEC:
JEDEC announces the publication of the UFS Card 3.0 specifications, which offers a maximum interface performance of 1.2 GB/s, compared to a maximum interface performance of 600 MB/s for UFS Card 2.0.
~November 2020~
Potentially relevant news:
2 November 2020 → Arm:
Arm formally announces the Cortex-A78C, with the option to choose between the hexa-core (6) 'big' system, or the octa-core (8) 'big' system.
~October 2020~
Potentially relevant news:
7 October 2020 → Arm:
Arm formally talks about the next two generations of Arm Cortex-A CPUs codenamed Matterhorn and Makalu, with Makalu having 30% more performance compared to the Cortex-A78. And future Arm Cortex-A CPU designs, starting from 2022, will only have 64-bit support.
~July 2020~
Potentially relevant news:
31 July 2020 → LinkedIn:
Nvidia mentions in a job posting on LinkedIn that Nvidia's looking for senior embedded graphics engineer for the Tegra solutions engineering team that's working on AI technology for game consoles, AI solutions for GPUs like DLSS 2.0, and optimising the performance of various software components of the Tegra graphics and system software stack.
~May 2020~
Potentially relevant news:
19 May 2020 → SD Association:
The SD Association announces SD Express 8.0, which supports PCIe 4.0, and can support up to 3,938 MB/s in transfer speeds.
17 May 2020 → Nvidia via Anandtech:
Nvidia gives more details about the Orin SoC, such as the Orin SoC features a GPU based on the Ampere architecture, and Nvidia has shown an updated stack of Orin SoC configurations.
~March 2020~
Potentially relevant news:
26 May 2020 → Arm via Anandtech:
Arm formally announces the Cortex-A78 and the Cortex-X1.
Potentially relevant rumour:
11 March 2020 → Twitter:
kopite7kimi mentions that the new Tegra SoC is being fabricated using Samsung's 8 nm process node, which is based on Samsung's 10 nm process node.
~December 2019~
Relevant news:
11 December 2019 → Macronix via Anandtech:
Nintendo is Macronix's first customer for Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND memory.
Potentially relevant news:
18 December 2019 → Twitter:
Nicholas La Rocco from ComputerBase says that Nvidia's German enterprise PR confirms that the Orin SoC is being fabricated using Samsung's 8 nm process node.
17 December 2019 → Nvidia via YouTube:
Nvidia formally announces the Orin SoC at GTC China 2019, mentioning that the Orin SoC features 12 of Arm's "Hercules" CPU cores and a GPU based of Nvidia's next-gen GPU architecture, and that the Orin SoC is 7x more powerful than the Xavier SoC, and Nvidia has shown the full stack of Orin SoC configurations.
Anyone can click
here to take a look at which rumours from the previous thread on ResetEra were considered true, false, or unknown.
~* → a tentative name that I use~
~** → a marketing nomenclature for all foundry companies~
And are you confused by how DLSS works? No worries, for
@ILikeFeet made an excellent post on the previous thread on ResetEra about how DLSS works on an engine level, which can be read
here.
Have fun, everyone!