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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

That part of the post was referring to CS5265, not RTD2172.
Ah, I see. Thanks for mentioning that to me.

Anyway, I think it's safe to say that Nintendo's using a PI3USB31532 chip, a USB 3.2 Gen 2 (or USB 3.1 Gen 2)/DisplayPort 1.4 crossbar switch chip, for the OLED model* (and presumably the DLSS model as well), with the confirmation that the OLED model's dock's using a DisplayPort 1.4 to HDMI 2.0b converter chip.
 
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This 4k dock won’t do anything for the oled switch correct? Or will it work like that marseille hdmi cable and sharpen the image some?
More than likely no. Unless they decide to update some specs for clocks and allow some stuff to happen. More than likely it’s just a future proof dock. There was a rumor/theory that because of part shortages Nintendo decided to release the OLED instead of the full “pro” version. This could be true as when the next iteration is released it might just be the OLED and same dock just an updated chip and RAM. We shall see.
 
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Possible. I personally could care less. I would rather have something that helps poor performance games. This obsession with 4K means nothing to me. To each their own though.

But don't you think Nintendo's first party games look good because I do. Maybe third party devs need to step it up notch or is Nintendo keeping special Switch coding techniques to themselves? :unsure:
 
Possible. I personally could care less. I would rather have something that helps poor performance games. This obsession with 4K means nothing to me. To each their own though.
For me who uses a 4K TV as a secondary gaming monitor in my desk setup (My PC and consoles are part of my desk)

And has a 55 inch 4K TV less than 4 feet from my face, yeah 4K matters for me XD

Not mainly for graphics, just so it isn't a vaseline blur mess
 
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This 4k dock won’t do anything for the oled switch correct? Or will it work like that marseille hdmi cable and sharpen the image some?
Most likely not, but there does appear to be a hidden setting in firmware to devote additional bandwidth to DisplayPort in firmware which could allow 4k output. It wouldn't do any additional processing on the image, though, just upscale to 4k inside the GPU instead of 1080p.
 
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This looks to me like the OLED Switch will upscale games to 4k with a firmware update.
The USB spec on the OLED tablet model itself may not allow for 4k/60fps output.

And the chip in the dock is not capable of doing AI upscaling either. That takes a full-on SoC like the TX1 IIRC.
 
I gotta go with Occam's razor here. 4k device was in development for 2021 as was a competing refresh that used the the Mariko SoC. The competing refresh is mostly built around keeping ahead of parts that are going to be EOL. In the process they pick up a few improvements like OLED and more storage. Possibly with a contingency of up-clocking and adding other improvements. This was simply Nintendo R&D not putting all their eggs in one basket.

Chip shortage comes around, and it becomes increasingly apparent that they're not going to be able to do the 4k device in 2021, so they do what they have to do to keep the parts coming that they need, and go forward with the OLED refresh.

4k Switch is coming. I like to think we'll see it next year, but who knows how Nintendo will strategize at this point.
 
But don't you think Nintendo's first party games look good because I do. Maybe third party devs need to step it up notch or is Nintendo keeping special Switch coding techniques to themselves? :unsure:
Looking at games like the crysis remaster, doom eternal and on Nintendo side LM3 those games all look gorgeous. There are a bunch of games though even Nintendo ones that struggle with framerate. It would be cool if that was prioritized in some way.
 
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I gotta go with Occam's razor here. 4k device was in development for 2021 as was a competing refresh that used the the Mariko SoC. The competing refresh is mostly built around keeping ahead of parts that are going to be EOL. In the process they pick up a few improvements like OLED and more storage. Possibly with a contingency of up-clocking and adding other improvements. This was simply Nintendo R&D not putting all their eggs in one basket.

Chip shortage comes around, and it becomes increasingly apparent that they're not going to be able to do the 4k device in 2021, so they do what they have to do to keep the parts coming that they need, and go forward with the OLED refresh.

4k Switch is coming. I like to think we'll see it next year, but who knows how Nintendo will strategize at this point.
I still don't buy this for one reason:

Orin was never once rumored or indicated to be coming in 2021. It was always 2022 on the roadmap. And we know Dane is a customized Orin.
 
The USB spec on the OLED tablet model itself may not allow for 4k/60fps output.

And the chip in the dock is not capable of doing AI upscaling either. That takes a full-on SoC like the TX1 IIRC.

What if the Switch could do 4k upscaling internally since 2017 and Nintendo will only unlock that feature when data tells them that enough 4k TVs are in homes to justify it. The old Switch fits into the OLED dock and the OLED dock is sold separately right?
 
This looks to me like the OLED Switch will upscale games to 4k with a firmware update.

What would be the point of that? Any 4K TV already upscales HD signals with similar result to what the dock could do without additional power to support it.

Moreover, if the hardware is already capable of doing it, why enable the function in the future? This is a feature that won't be useful for the OLED model. The only sensible explanation is that it was planned for a "true" 4K revision, that was either scrapped or is still happening.
 
What if the Switch could do 4k upscaling internally since 2017 and Nintendo will only unlock that feature when data tells them that enough 4k TVs are in homes to justify it. The old Switch fits into the OLED dock and the OLED dock is sold separately right?
IIRC the capability for 4k video on the TX1s and TX1+s used in the Switch was physically disabled on the chips. It can't be enabled via firmware.
 
What would be the point of that? Any 4K TV already upscales HD signals with similar result to what the dock could do without additional power to support it.

Moreover, if the hardware is already capable of doing it, why enable the function in the future? This is a feature that won't be useful for the OLED model. The only sensible explanation is that it was planned for a "true" 4K revision, that was either scrapped or is still happening.
The reason to do that is to avoid double scaling the image. That said, the reason why it hasn't been done is because the dock was never capable of outputting it and it would require giving up the majority of the USB bandwidth, at least on existing Switches (not sure about OLED).
 
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4K video or 4k game upscaling? Also could you provide a source? If trying to figure stuff out here. :unsure:
Can't find a source at the moment (I'm cooking dinner) but it can't output 4k video regardless, the USB-C port on existing Switches is not capable of doing that. At least while charging the unit, I think.
 
Can't find a source at the moment (I'm cooking dinner) but it can't output 4k video regardless, the USB-C port on existing Switches is not capable of doing that. At least while charging the unit, I think.
Not sure about charging, but it would definitely have to give up USB 3 speeds.
 
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The USB spec on the OLED tablet model itself may not allow for 4k/60fps output.
It does if USB 3 is given up. I believe some simultaneous USB functionality can be obtained via the USB 2.0 pins in the connector, but I'm not positive.

What if the Switch could do 4k upscaling internally since 2017
IIRC the capability for 4k video on the TX1s and TX1+s used in the Switch was physically disabled on the chips. It can't be enabled via firmware.
I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. I know for a fact homebrewed Switches can run at 4K in Android/Linux, though I'm not sure if it was ever made to work at 60 Hz. I'll see if I can find anything on that.
 
Based on all of this, the OLED is going to be a very awkward product when looked back on historically. I don't imagine it will be rare, but it will be the sort of thing the Scott the Woz equivalent in 2040 does a video on.

Here's a product that was predicated on a very different story about the direction of a product line, so much so that Nintendo had to lie to refute leaks that would have damaged its viability. If this all oans out how you guys expect it will definitely be a common example of a time Nintendo had to scheme to sell something.
 
It does if USB 3 is given up. I believe some simultaneous USB functionality can be obtained via the USB 2.0 pins in the connector, but I'm not positive.



I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. I know for a fact homebrewed Switches can run at 4K in Android/Linux, though I'm not sure if it was ever made to work at 60 Hz. I'll see if I can find anything on that.
Oh wow, I really thought people had speculated that it was a fundamental hardware modification that disabled 4k. Guess I was wrong.
 
Oh wow, I really thought people had speculated that it was a fundamental hardware modification that disabled 4k. Guess I was wrong.
The only thing I know of that's physically disabled are the A53 cores, but that applies to all TX1 chips.
 
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Based on all of this, the OLED is going to be a very awkward product when looked back on historically. I don't imagine it will be rare, but it will be the sort of thing the Scott the Woz equivalent in 2040 does a video on.

Here's a product that was predicated on a very different story about the direction of a product line, so much so that Nintendo had to lie to refute leaks that would have damaged its viability. If this all oans out how you guys expect it will definitely be a common example of a time Nintendo had to scheme to sell something.
It was in the middle of a pandemic and chip shortage. I’m fully of the mindset that the OLED was supposed to be a “pro” “4K” whatever phrase you want to use. Nintendo saw the ps5 and xb series struggle because of shortages. I believe when the next switch is announced it’s going to be exactly what the OLED is just with upgraded internals.
 
It was in the middle of a pandemic and chip shortage. I’m fully of the mindset that the OLED was supposed to be a “pro” “4K” whatever phrase you want to use. Nintendo saw the ps5 and xb series struggle because of shortages. I believe when the next switch is announced it’s going to be exactly what the OLED is just with upgraded internals.
I agree that the Dane Switch is likely just going to look like the OLED model (maybe with slightly different joycons?) but I can't agree with the idea that the OLED was supposed to be the "pro" and was postponed because of the pandemic.

That idea completely misaligns with the known fact that Orin was always supposed to debut in 2022.
 
I agree that the Dane Switch is likely just going to look like the OLED model (maybe with slightly different joycons?) but I can't agree with the idea that the OLED was supposed to be the "pro" and was postponed because of the pandemic.

That idea completely misaligns with the known fact that Orin was always supposed to debut in 2022.
Fair enough.
 
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What if the Switch could do 4k upscaling internally since 2017 and Nintendo will only unlock that feature when data tells them that enough 4k TVs are in homes to justify it. The old Switch fits into the OLED dock and the OLED dock is sold separately right?
I'm not very sure about that, since the STDP2550 chip, the Mobility DisplayPort 1.2a to HDMI 1.4b converter chip, on the Nintendo Switch's dock, can only support up to 4K 30 Hz, which I imagine is not ideal for internal upscaling.
It does if USB 3 is given up. I believe some simultaneous USB functionality can be obtained via the USB 2.0 pins in the connector, but I'm not positive.



I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. I know for a fact homebrewed Switches can run at 4K in Android/Linux, though I'm not sure if it was ever made to work at 60 Hz. I'll see if I can find anything on that.
The STDP2550 chip, the Mobility DisplayPort 1.2a to HDMI 1.4b converter chip, on the Nintendo Switch's dock, can only support up to 4K 30 Hz.
 
It was in the middle of a pandemic and chip shortage. I’m fully of the mindset that the OLED was supposed to be a “pro” “4K” whatever phrase you want to use. Nintendo saw the ps5 and xb series struggle because of shortages. I believe when the next switch is announced it’s going to be exactly what the OLED is just with upgraded internals.
All the same, it's a misleading product about the future of the Nintendo Switch as a platform. Selling a shiny new Switch and denying the existence of anything else a year before its replacement is a classic Nintendo scheme taken to new heights (lows?).
 
All the same, it's a misleading product about the future of the Nintendo Switch as a platform. Selling a shiny new Switch and denying the existence of anything else a year before its replacement is a classic Nintendo scheme taken to new heights (lows?).
I think most are of the mind that the new device is a year away at minimum. It could be closer to two.
 
Hasn't that basically become the same thing? Like how one of the actual definitions of "literal" is now figurative?
Nah

It’s still heavily corrected to couldn’t as the mix up is with could and couldn’t in the application where the meaning does not make sense.

It’s similar to how “mines” and “mine” are, where “mines” is heavily corrected.


A word that does fit what you mean is “ask”. It is pronounced as “axe” when it’s “ah-sk”, and that doesn’t get corrected and it’s accepted as the former or the latter interchangeably, even though people can easily say (and write) a word like “task” with little issue and don’t say “Tax”. I still pronounce it the latter for “ask”, not the former
 
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That's true. I do genuinely think there's a big difference between the OLED being obsolete after a year vs two.
It might be outpowered but it won't become obsolete. Nintendo will need a SKU in that 300$ range since Dane won't be.
 
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I don’t think Aula will be obsolete tbh, at least not made obsolete in the traditional sense. It’s possible that what’s going to happen is this:

October 8th 2021, OLED model of the Nintendo Switch releases at 349.99. QoL improvements but not a notable spec bump over the current flagship model. (We know this)

Summer 2022, Dane is announced to the public, for a Fall release.

Fall 2022, Dane is released, Aula gets a price cut to 299.99. Dane is set at 399.99 price point.

All throughout 2023, games are made for both, obvious performance difference between the two is obvious. But, at least both get the games.

Fall 2023, first third party exclusive appears, literally unplayable on the Tegra X1/X1+ units. Starts the end of the cross-gen period for the third party titles.

2024, many more third parties are moving to Dane, first party games are still targeting TX1/X1+.

2025, Nintendo refreshes the Lite with a Super Lite model, somehow, don’t ask. Commences the start of the end of all first party titles releasing on the whole stack. Now select titles release on both. But next 3D Zelda? Forget it. If you didn’t upgrade then you gotta upgrade now!

2026, the end of cross gen point blank period, a new model based off it Atlan is released.

Switch Next Next based on 3nm, flies, and walks your dog.

2048 cores. 12 CPU cores.

book it

🗿🗿🗿
 
I don’t think Aula will be obsolete tbh, at least not made obsolete in the traditional sense. It’s possible that what’s going to happen is this:

October 8th 2021, OLED model of the Nintendo Switch releases at 349.99. QoL improvements but not a notable spec bump over the current flagship model. (We know this)

Summer 2022, Dane is announced to the public, for a Fall release.

Fall 2022, Dane is released, Aula gets a price cut to 299.99. Dane is set at 399.99 price point.

All throughout 2023, games are made for both, obvious performance difference between the two is obvious. But, at least both get the games.

Fall 2023, first third party exclusive appears, literally unplayable on the Tegra X1/X1+ units. Starts the end of the cross-gen period for the third party titles.

2024, many more third parties are moving to Dane, first party games are still targeting TX1/X1+.

2025, Nintendo refreshes the Lite with a Super Lite model, somehow, don’t ask. Commences the start of the end of all first party titles releasing on the whole stack. Now select titles release on both. But next 3D Zelda? Forget it. If you didn’t upgrade then you gotta upgrade now!

2026, the end of cross gen point blank period, a new model based off it Atlan is released.

Switch Next Next based on 3nm, flies, and walks your dog.

2048 cores. 12 CPU cores.

book it

🗿🗿🗿
Eh, based on Nate's comments IIRC, he said that third-party Exclusives are targeting Fall 2022.

So adjust that to make it so first party exclusivity starts to die in 2023/2024
 
I still don't buy this for one reason:

Orin was never once rumored or indicated to be coming in 2021. It was always 2022 on the roadmap. And we know Dane is a customized Orin.
That it's derived from Orin doesn't mean that can't release earlier than Orin. Orin is still in development as an automotive part. Automotive parts take *FOREVER* to be fully tested. They stick with old processes because they don't have to be retested again and again, and because Orin can not meet its performance requirements at 80nm (or whatever the auto industry uses), it's going to take it's sweet time.

On the other had, instead of being a part of a $50,000 plus product, with Nintendo it's part of a $350 (maybe) product, and won't kill people if it's fails. Dane as a derivative of the same development as Orin can absolutely come to market before Orin does.
 
Oh wow, I really thought people had speculated that it was a fundamental hardware modification that disabled 4k. Guess I was wrong.
The hard limit has always been the dock. The main question is if the Switch can do it while maintaining a usable USB connection. If it can, then a 4k mode on the new dock is probably viable without too much user visible downside, since the Switch really doesn't tend to stress the USB half of its bandwidth while docked.

The question is, if this is something they're planning, why wait when that could be a selling point for the new dock? The fact that that hasn't been enabled is the main reason I'm not buying a Switch OLED. The main reason I can think of is they may not want to cause confusion with Dane.
I don’t think Aula will be obsolete tbh, at least not made obsolete in the traditional sense. It’s possible that what’s going to happen is this:

October 8th 2021, OLED model of the Nintendo Switch releases at 349.99. QoL improvements but not a notable spec bump over the current flagship model. (We know this)

Summer 2022, Dane is announced to the public, for a Fall release.

Fall 2022, Dane is released, Aula gets a price cut to 299.99. Dane is set at 399.99 price point.

All throughout 2023, games are made for both, obvious performance difference between the two is obvious. But, at least both get the games.

Fall 2023, first third party exclusive appears, literally unplayable on the Tegra X1/X1+ units. Starts the end of the cross-gen period for the third party titles.

2024, many more third parties are moving to Dane, first party games are still targeting TX1/X1+.

2025, Nintendo refreshes the Lite with a Super Lite model, somehow, don’t ask. Commences the start of the end of all first party titles releasing on the whole stack. Now select titles release on both. But next 3D Zelda? Forget it. If you didn’t upgrade then you gotta upgrade now!

2026, the end of cross gen point blank period, a new model based off it Atlan is released.

Switch Next Next based on 3nm, flies, and walks your dog.

2048 cores. 12 CPU cores.

book it

🗿🗿🗿
Eh, I expect third party exclusives basically from day one. If that wasn't expected, there'd be no reason to have devkits out this early.
 
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That it's derived from Orin doesn't mean that can't release earlier than Orin. Orin is still in development as an automotive part. Automotive parts take *FOREVER* to be fully tested. They stick with old processes because they don't have to be retested again and again, and because Orin can not meet its performance requirements at 80nm (or whatever the auto industry uses), it's going to take it's sweet time.

On the other had, instead of being a part of a $50,000 plus product, with Nintendo it's part of a $350 (maybe) product, and won't kill people if it's fails. Dane as a derivative of the same development as Orin can absolutely come to market before Orin does.
Unless I'm mistaken Orin S (which Dane is very likely to be a code name for) was also denoted as debuting in 2022.
 
That it's derived from Orin doesn't mean that can't release earlier than Orin. Orin is still in development as an automotive part. Automotive parts take *FOREVER* to be fully tested. They stick with old processes because they don't have to be retested again and again, and because Orin can not meet its performance requirements at 80nm (or whatever the auto industry uses), it's going to take it's sweet time.

On the other had, instead of being a part of a $50,000 plus product, with Nintendo it's part of a $350 (maybe) product, and won't kill people if it's fails. Dane as a derivative of the same development as Orin can absolutely come to market before Orin does.
Unless I'm mistaken Orin S (which Dane is very likely to be a code name for) was also denoted as debuting in 2022.
E3kxUpNUcAARMB0
 
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First episode of my podcast is live, thanks Dakhil and CMM1215 for joining me. We go over the bloomberg article and what we think happened, as well as NSO's future and consolidation in the games industry.
 
Eh, based on Nate's comments IIRC, he said that third-party Exclusives are targeting Fall 2022.

So adjust that to make it so first party exclusivity starts to die in 2023/2024
I don't recall Nate ever giving a timeline to exclusives, only enhanced software.
 
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