A few thoughts. It might come across a little ranty, but if you can see past that to the substance, I hope that it will allow for better and broader discussions: "Switch is primarily a first party machine...." - I feel that fellow Nintendo fans need to get away from this narrative. It doesn't hold, and it's very clear upon the Switch reveal that this is NOT what Nintendo was aiming for - We saw TES5: Skyrim and NBA 2K games next to Splatoon 2, Super Mario Odyssey and LOZ: Breath Of The Wild. In the 2017 Presentation, we also saw representatives from Sega, Square-Enix and EA, then at E3, Miyamoto joined Ubisoft developers on stage, while numerous JRPGs which existed as PlayStation 3rdP exclusives came to Switch, and the likes of Bethesda and CDPR brought games for the first time in a long while, if not for the first time ever. Even Rockstar Games are here, although flagship GTA and RDR entries haven't arrived yet - If this isn't clear messaging that 1stP and 3rdP can co-exist on Nintendo platforms, or that this is what they aspire to, then I don't know what is. That's before we get to Indie developers, who are enjoying regular banquets on the Switch. It's rather astonishing that so many people haven't yet grasped this.
We're long past this train of thought of Nintendo platforms being "complementary second systems" - If anything, this narrative needs to change. One might suggest that they're the primary system, because Nintendo is a certainty for many, but whether you buy a PS/XBox seems up for debate. One other point that's often been lost in this discussion is that Nintendo has finally managed to answer the question "Why buy the Nintendo version?" (because people can play anywhere, and in some cases, cross-save with other versions, if they double dipped. More than that, the portability enables people to have more time to play and complete the games they purchase). 3rdPs that didn't treat it as some sort of science and came over were rewarded for jobs done well. It's time that we stopped wondering whether their games would sell, and start asking publishers what they did, what they can do, what whey will do to make their products successes.
So, what does this mean for a Switch successor? I fully expect Nintendo and Nvidia to go harder than the performance-levels proposed in this thread, and the ones at the New Old Place. Why? Because anything less would leave them very susceptible to loss of partnerships and failure; Ultimately, one has to reconcile this with the "Do Or Die" statement of the current leadership. Having worked so hard to bring Bethesda, CDPR, Final Fantasy and KH, among others to the Switch, it would be very deeply lamentable for all parties concerned, if their next/future projects didn't make it to a successor. Still, to aspire to XB1/PS4 ports for a successor is to seal a Worse Than Wii U-esque fate for it. It would not be a significant advancement over what is possible on the existing Switch (there isn't a single XB1/PS4 title that couldn't exist on the Switch in some capacity). Furthermore, Considering that 70%+ of Switch owners also own one of XB1/PS4/PC, it would beg the questions "Who would this product be for, except a very small niche of people who played Nintendo systems exclusively? Surely it's better to make your product more appealing to your partners, so that the $399-499 spent on a PS/XBox is spent on games for it, rather than a second console you can't play anywhere BEFORE buying games for it". I believe that this is what Nintendo aspires to, and I would also put it out there that the OLED model is setting them up for a successor's inevitable $399 price - That's... kinda important because it would give them extra room to work with in terms of achieving a higher point of performance. I also believe that Nintendo aren't averse to the idea of better performance, because they were not pleased with Yoshi's Crafted World or Xenoblade Chronicles 2 performances for 1stP products. Having the extra performance will also increase their productivity and keep development costs down, because they wouldn't need to spend as much time developing nip-and-tuck solutions to technical limitations. I want to put these thoughts out there because I'm rather tired of policed expectations and the general tone, that fellow Nintendo fans should be afraid to dream, or dare to expect more, or be positive in their mindsets. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen!! That's also OK, but let's not be afraid to dare to dream again - We're all adults here, right? The onus should be on individuals to get a grip of their own emotions, rather than demand that everybody else "keeps their expectations in check" (Sorry, but this is one thing I despised about the New Old Place)
"But Angel!! It isn't possible, and they won't get near the PS5!!" - I want to let the following statement marinate with everybody, because it should be a starting point: It doesn't need to be "near the PS5", because there won't be a single (non-exclusive) game in the next 7 years (i.e., between now and the end of 2028) that has PS5 paper specs as its minimum requirements. None. Not One. Zero. Zilch. It doesn't matter, because the real performance threshold is the XBox Series S - Microsoft will NOT adopt a policy which allows 3rdPs to develop for the XSX alone. There MUST be a version for the XSS. But we MIGHT be able to identify a lower performance threshold in the Steam Deck, too, which will surely have some PS5/XS ports.
I don't have all the answers, and wouldn't claim to, but I don't believe that anything I've posted is wild, or out of order here. Ultimately, I'm a believer in the Common Endeavour (Nintendo doesn't want to be left behind, while their partners want them to have enough to bring Dragon Quest 12, or the next Monster Hunter, etc.). There isn't a coherent reason to believe that they'll aim so low, which, at its heart, DOESN'T amount to much more than certain Internet perceptions or "L-M-A-O Nin-ten-D'OH!!". I'm confident that Nvidia and Nintendo will produce something that beats the Steam Deck, XB1 and PS4 comfortably in real world performance terms. Finally, when the Tegra superchip was unveiled and pitched to Nintendo, it had aspirations of that time - To deliver XB1/PS4-esque performance at a tenth of the power consumption. I don't believe for a second that Nintendo aligned themselves with the leading graphics processing company in the world to design backward-thinking, unambitious hardware that would be easily beaten by flagship-spec mobile phones upon launch. With that in mind, I believe that this rumoured Orin-derivative will have aspirations fit for today - To get PS5/XS-esque performance at a fraction of the consumption, OR be in a place where it can have full-cream editions of UE5/the latest gaming development engines, and receive ports of PS5/XS titles. Whether they achieve it through DLSS, or mixed precision, or an enhanced dock, or whatever the SCD unit is meant to be, or other (unannounced) disruptive tech, I don't know, but there appears to be more avenues that they could explore.