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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation and Discussion |ST| Nate Drake, is this a new thread or a revision of the previous thread?

Charamiwa

Tektite
Nintendo has a history of straight up lying or misleading people when they have a new product on the way and they don't want people to discuss it, get excited for it or wait for it. Here is a good article covering some of this misdirection from Nintendo:


Most people online seem quite certain that the Nikkei article from the other day confirms no new Switch hardware is coming anytime soon but honestly I don't think it's changed the narrative for me much after really thinking about it. I still wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo unveils new hardware in say February and targets an early Spring release along with Zelda. I was disappointed for a few hours after that article until I reactivated my brain cells and really thought about Nintendo's history of misleading people when it comes to new hardware plans.

I don't think hardware is coming this year but I do still think it's launching with the next Zelda release. It just makes way too much sense for the new hardware to launch with Zelda. Not just because that is what they did in 2017 but because BOTW was likely a much bigger success then they were ever expecting and they will want to double down on this strategy a second time around. I know I would. It worked and worked well.
All these examples have nothing to do with the matter at hand. Nintendo "lies" when they want to deny something Nikkei is reporting on, whether that reporting is true or not. This time Nikkei and Nintendo are pretty much on the same line on the matter. There's no lying, because there's nothing to deny.
 

Ojoloco

Developer
Yep I knew about Dusk because of the rumor of a Switch-exclusive Monster Hunter game with RE engine
I think at the time people were somewhat skeptical of it but it turned out accurate
For this, i think that the ports of resident evil games could be release as exclusive drake version
 

CypressFX

Tektite
I mean, Nintendo is never going to say, "Yes, we have another bit of hardware this year..." in an interview. They'll always deny until it is time to announce.

The lack of supply, a major supplier altering their forecast, and there being no movement on production lines are enough to suggest 2022 has fallen out of favor.

Do you have insight that production lines are not being started etc.? Or is it just speculation from your side?

Because these chinese uncles we cited all the times were clearly (at least one of them) that production lines do start in this time frame…
 
Two things:

1) if Nikkei is telling the truth, and Nintendo finds that it could harm their business, they will deny it even if Nikkei is telling the truth.

2) if Nikkei is not telling the truth, and nintendo doesn’t find that it is harming their business, they will not deny it because they gain nothing by providing the alternate circumstance in which it can harm their business.





There’s a third one though, in which it is this: Nintendo got ahead of the information game that Nikkei somehow comes in contact with and gave false information for which they would report, and this way it saves on some of the trouble of denying the information or sitting there with information in denial. And it does present a different message to the investors that look at Nintendo.




If I were to just guess or whatever for the recent convo on a few pages, I personally didn’t believe it was a 2022 product ever though. H1 2023 I could see.

But if not, November 2023 is the likely date.


Unless these ancient crusty suits feel like stringing people along until 2025 when this shit is dead and learning absolutely nothing from the Wii to Wii U despite saying otherwise.
 
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Serif

Bob-omb
Pronouns
He/Him
Which at the end of the day is very different from Nikkei saying “our sources have confirmed that hardware is not due for release until sometime after this FY”. It’s a reasonable assumption at this stage but the way it’s being treated, and what it’s actually reporting, are pretty different.
Yeah, problems arises when folks share the English reporting as a guarantee of no new hardware next year, with some variation of 'I was right', 'I knew all along', 'to no one's surprise', etc.

Confirmation bias works both ways... I realize that the various bits of secondhand info from Chinese forums about production starting are also playing into my own bias about wanting this to come out soon, but I'm not treating anything as a guarantee. If I could have a translated article, I don't think I'd even disagree with Nikkei's conclusion, considering the discussion is centered around the fiscal year.

I know the headlines and YouTube thumbnails about the report suggest something conclusive, but I wish people - for once - would actually read the articles that accompany these headlines ? 🥺
 

Kongo B

Zero-to-death
Pronouns
He/Him
All these examples have nothing to do with the matter at hand. Nintendo "lies" when they want to deny something Nikkei is reporting on, whether that reporting is true or not. This time Nikkei and Nintendo are pretty much on the same line on the matter. There's no lying, because there's nothing to deny.

Watch 'em drop it this fiscal year anyway.
 

HankyPanky

Cappy
Pronouns
Him
This is interesting especially about the slowdown. It’s obvious now that the MK team is making tracks for the mainline and mobile version at the same time. I expect all the MK10 tracks to also be in the mobile version. Kind of sucks as there will be massive limitations due to phone performance just as we’ll be getting much more powerful Nintendo hardware but then again they aren’t going to make the next Mario Kart a Drake exclusive when there will be 120 million+ original Switch consoles to sell it to.

120 million Switches and when I said this people still thought the next MK could skip the OG model. not very likely when Nintendo is primarily in the business of selling software and not everyone who wants a Drake will be able to get one for a couple of years.

interesting aside - it seems like MK8 is getting AI improvements as per the latest update. wild speculation these enhancements could be pulled from a future title...
 

Golden

Cappy
In past years Nintendo clearly stated when they didn't intend to release new HW in a FY. Now it's just slated through an opinion based article. They also in past years said they don't intend to release new HW but then dropped like the 3DS XL a few months later. You can just never really guess when Nintendo will do things cause the more you dig the more it gets confusing. They won't scrap the whole console, so just wait and it will happen eventually
 

Dekuman

Koopa
Pronouns
He/Him/His
I think people expecting 2022 or even early 2023 release should probably have expected a high probability it wouldn't happen by late spring, even Nate provided a date range, not a firm 2022 target.

there's so much not lining up.
  • BOTW2 isn;t launching this FY
  • There's no real games to drive it, and we have a good picture of the Holiday lineup even if 1 or 2 surprises may still be unannounced due to no Summer direct
  • Leaks have been tepid
  • Factory leaks from China is a confusing mess and seem to point more to special edition variants
  • The games just aren't there

I've personally felt H2 2023 makes the most sense as BOTW 2 would most likely release in that timeframe. But I'm, also not ruling out H1 2023 in the late spring.
I'll be open to 2024 if and when facts show that but nothing right now points to a timeframe outside of 2024, outside of throwing that out to troll people.

My mantra in hardware discussions is to keep an open mind. If facts change, you have to recalibrate. No need to die on any hill.
 

Blue Monty

Bounty Hunter
Pronouns
he/him
I think people expecting 2022 or even early 2023 release should probably have expected a high probability it wouldn't happen by late spring, even Nate provided a date range, not a firm 2022 target.

there's so much not lining up.
  • BOTW2 isn;t launching this FY
  • There's no real games to drive it, and we have a good picture of the Holiday lineup even if 1 or 2 surprises may still be unannounced due to no Summer direct
  • Leaks have been tepid
  • Factory leaks from China is a confusing mess and seem to point more to special edition variants
  • The games just aren't there

I've personally felt H2 2023 makes the most sense as BOTW 2 would most likely release in that timeframe. But I'm, also not ruling out H1 2023 in the late spring.
I'll be open to 2024 if and when facts show that, but nothing right now outside of throwing that out to troll people.

My mantra in hardware discussions is to keep an open mind. In facts change, you have to recalibrate. No need to die on any hill.
What makes you think BOTW2 will get delayed again? They announced spring 2023 not 2023, this even means BOTW2 could launch this FY but I doubt it.
 

Mr.Gamerson

Piranha Plant
The difference between early Spring (this fiscal year) and late spring(H1) is a few months. If Zelda comes out Spring 2023 and there is no hint of Switch NXT being in production, then we can start picking apart the rumors that claimed early 2023, until then, people are just going to continue to split hairs over a release date that may still happen soon but is a just a few months earlier or later than you expected.
 

Polygon

Shriekbat
Pronouns
Him
I’m feeling increasingly alone when I say I’m genuinely happy with titles from Nintendo always supporting base Switch for another 5 years (+).
I’m not distraught by it because the industry has changed so much in the past decade between massive acquisitions, companies games on competitors platforms, almost every game being on PC, mid gen console upgrades, VR, cloud streaming, services like Game Pass, all the rendering tricks like DLSS, DRS, VRS, FSR etc, engine scalability (to where The Witcher 3 can go from pushing an RTX 2080 to also running decently on Switch).

Cross gen games is just another reality of the modern industry where companies are increasingly concerned about putting all their eggs in one basket by releasing a game which has a sub 20 million market to sell to when you could scale it down in certain ways and sell it to another 100+ million customers.

Whatever the next Switch is there will eventually be exclusive games for it so it doesn’t bother me too much but as a near 40 year old I do miss being blown away with day one exclusives which simply couldn’t be done on previous hardware. I think if Sony knew Covid was coming they could have easily gotten Demons Souls, Returnal, Ratchet and TLOU Remake all running on PS4 at 900p/30fps and 1440p/30fps on PS4 Pro instead of them being PS5 exclusives. They’d have still sold every PS5 they could manufacture regardless.

Seeing a new 3D Mario, Mario Kart or Zelda pushing far more polygons, much higher precision lighting, higher resolution textures, ray traced shadows etc still excites me but I’m happy to wait to see them. I’m too old to get wound up by what is small issues.

Current Switch games look astounding at 4k because of Nintendo’s art direction. I’ll be happy with that for a few more years.
 

Polygon

Shriekbat
Pronouns
Him
120 million Switches and when I said this people still thought the next MK could skip the OG model. not very likely when Nintendo is primarily in the business of selling software and not everyone who wants a Drake will be able to get one for a couple of years.

interesting aside - it seems like MK8 is getting AI improvements as per the latest update. wild speculation these enhancements could be pulled from a future title...
Oh that sounds exciting. Anywhere I can read more or watch more about it? Cheers.
 

manfromthedam

Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
interesting aside - it seems like MK8 is getting AI improvements as per the latest update. wild speculation these enhancements could be pulled from a future title...
Have read your posts about CPU drivers having improved (which would explain my difficulty getting 3 stars in 150cc!), but don't see how this would relate to a future title. Yabuki might have his hands full on Tour and MK8 at the moment right?
 

Dekuman

Koopa
Pronouns
He/Him/His
What makes you think BOTW2 will get delayed again? They announced spring 2023 not 2023, this even means BOTW2 could launch this FY but I doubt it.
Until we get a date anything is possible. Just living up to my keep an open mind credo

If.you are referring to my BOTW2 isn't launchingnthis FY comment I don't think they ever promised it was a FY 2023 title (ending Mar 2023) it could arrive after that
 

Stinky Horse

Piranha Plant
Until we get a date anything is possible. Just living up to my keep an open mind credo

If.you are referring to my BOTW2 isn't launchingnthis FY comment I don't think they ever promised it was a FY 2023 title (ending Mar 2023) it could arrive after that
If they wanted to confirm it was this FY they might as well have said March 2023 instead of Spring. I suspect it isn't this FY just from how early they announced the delay.
 

Hosermess

Octorok
The difference between early Spring (this fiscal year) and late spring(H1) is a few months. If Zelda comes out Spring 2023 and there is no hint of Switch NXT being in production, then we can start picking apart the rumors that claimed early 2023, until then, people are just going to continue to split hairs over a release date that may still happen soon but is a just a few months earlier or later than you expected.

I just hope that people will take into account that they'll be picking apart "rumours" that are currently 10 months old (Bloomberg's: "during or after the second half of next year (2022)" dated Sept 29, 2021 & Nate's "late 2022 and Q1 of 2023, that is the window I was given" dated Oct 13, 2021) and will be 18 months old when the end of March 2023 rolls around. But I doubt it, people love to split hairs.
 

jzero

Piranha Plant
Pronouns
They/them
Why do people talk to Nate like they're Phoenix Wright? "Hmmm. Just last week you said that the console would be coming out early 2023. points to paper And yet you just said the first half of 2023. smug look Why did your story change? bangs on desk, then points It's a clear contradiction!"
Objection!!!!
 

kvetcha

radicalized by deerhoof
Pronouns
he/him
I just hope that people will take into account that they'll be picking apart "rumours" that are currently 10 months old (Bloomberg's: "during or after the second half of next year (2022)" dated Sept 29, 2021 & Nate's "late 2022 and Q1 of 2023, that is the window I was given" dated Oct 13, 2021) and will be 18 months old when the end of March 2023 rolls around. But I doubt it, people love to split hairs.
I know people who consider context, they're all cowards.
 
I think if Sony knew Covid was coming they could have easily gotten Demons Souls, Returnal, Ratchet and TLOU Remake all running on PS4 at 900p/30fps and 1440p/30fps on PS4 Pro instead of them being PS5 exclusives.
Idk about all that for those games…

Maybe 720-810p at best on PS4, mostly 30 and 1080-1200p or so on PS4 Pro.


And really paired back.

The issue would be the CPUs I feel of those consoles.
Hmm, annoying news to hear, but it was always one of the likelier scenarios in mind. Oh well, still doesn't aggravate me as much as certain other hardware stuff... (present day GPU market is still terrible for my specific wants and it's one of the moving parts delaying my next desktop build)

But at the end of the day, I've actually always felt some level of calm ever since the Nvidia hack. Knowing that Drake's being worked on and it being a matter of time helps me a lot. I end up not really caring that much about the when and focus more on having fun with thinking about the what and how, along with the underlying why that's behind the details of the what.
(...no, I don't think that I can fit in who and where in there)

For example, that GPU size of 12 SMs. That's a what detail. But then one wonders, why 12 exactly? Why not a smaller size which would be cheaper? We've then surmised that there must be some practical advantage to go with this size. Probably targeting perf/watt. But is it perf/watt in docked? Is it perf/watt in portable? Can it be optimal for perf/watt in both modes? How much power can you allocate for the GPU, which then presumably gets split up among 12 SMs? If it's only 3-4 watts in portable, what do you get from a quarter to a third of a watt per SM? Are we still above the voltage floor* at this point? Which then introduces the thought that maybe's there power gating going on, so you're not splitting up a few watts across 12 SMs, but instead a smaller number.

I think it’s possible that they are aiming for the best perf per watt in portable mode and it scales fine for docked mode. I was trying to do the math the other day for it and it makes a lot of assumptions, I don’t think it actually works like this because these have curves not a linear relationship per se. Or a curve that can’t be ignored.

Ok, so the MX570 is an ampere based GPU on 8nm that has a max TGP of 25W @ 1155MHz, contains 2048 CUDA cores as well. if we apply it to Drake at the same frequency I’d assume that Drake would draw 18.75W, being 75% of the MX570 TGP because it has 75% of the cores.


Even if we halved that for portable mode, you’d get 9.375W just for the GPU, so I thought, “what if we moved from 10nm to the 7nm family?”
From TSMC 10nm to 7nm, it’s supposed to be a 40% power reduction while at the same clock frequency, no?


But here’s the tricky part: This isn’t easy as it’s 1) 8nm which is just an improved 10nm and 2) a different Foundries 7nm node.

Granted, it’s agreed upon that TSMC nodes are noticeably better than their Samsung equivalent, so for the sake of convenience I’ll say that a 8nm SEC is equal to a 10nm TsMC and if there was an 8nm TsMC (10nm+) it would be better than the 8nm SEC.

Anyway, “9.375W” at 8nm for the portable and “18.75” for the docked clocked profile.

If we reduce it by 40% or so in power which would align with the TSMC figure, you’d get “5.625W” in the lower clocked ~577.5MHz and “11.25W” in the docked configuration of 1155MHz.


If we drop it a little more in clock frequency to 460MHz and 921MHz respectively, we can reduce the consumption probably a little more.

Probably ~4.5W at 460MHz in portable mode and ~8.9W at 921MHz in docked mode. Docked mode is a less concern here though as that isn’t going to be so limited unlike portable mode.

In portable mode though…

Ok so, how would this compare to the TX1 though🤔🤔, the 20nm version. Do you happen to know a way of figuring that out?

And yes yes, there’s a bunch of caveats here yada yada. Just working with what we got!
 
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jzero

Piranha Plant
Pronouns
They/them
I mean, Nintendo is never going to say, "Yes, we have another bit of hardware this year..." in an interview. They'll always deny until it is time to announce.

The lack of supply, a major supplier altering their forecast, and there being no movement on production lines are enough to suggest 2022 has fallen out of favor.
Sorry to ask here, but what is the actual debate that is happening? There is surely a new Switch coming, and frankly this is something to be expected, as the OG Switch is from 2017. Why people get so intense in a debate about inside information of a release window? Those things change, anyone who has worked in any big project for any company / industry can confirm you that.
 

Thugstas

Octorok
I am confused. The Nikkei article has zero quotes from Furukawa on new hardware. It's literally speculation. The only quotes are about Switch production.
Really…
Stop this drama … things are on the way.
Nikkei could be wrong and could be right… 2023 is the max
We need to wait and enjoy what we have right now 😉
 

Skittzo

Adept
Founder
Pronouns
He/Him
FamiGold
13
I am confused. The Nikkei article has zero quotes from Furukawa on new hardware. It's literally speculation. The only quotes are about Switch production.
There are times when publications in interviews will put down information disclosed in the interview outside of quotes. Usually it happens directly after a quote. Random example:

"Skittzo was reluctant to post in the hardware thread: 'I'm on vacation and am glad I missed this nonsense and it's not worth stressing about right now.' He was bored though and decided to post anyway"

The latter part isn't part of my quote, but it is still something I told the interviewer.


Anyway, either way it doesn't matter because if it's from Nikkei, A) they do not have a perfect track record as far as this kinda thing is concerned and if it's from Furukawa, B) Nintendo tends to lie to interviewers (especially Nikkei) about new hardware.

I personally don't think this interview means much. It could very well be true but I'm putting just as much stock into it as any credible rumor.
 

Bonejack

The Ancient One
Founder
Pronouns
He/Him

wink-winking.gif
 

ILikeFeet

Pikmin
Idk about all that for those games…

Maybe 720-810p at best on PS4, mostly 30 and 1080-1200p or so on PS4 Pro.


And really paired back.

The issue would be the CPUs I feel of those consoles.


I think it’s possible that they are aiming for the best perf per watt in portable mode and it scales fine for docked mode. I was trying to do the math the other day for it and it makes a lot of assumptions, I don’t think it actually works like this because these have curves not a linear relationship per se. Or a curve that can’t be ignored.

Ok, so the MX570 is an ampere based GPU on 8nm that has a max TGP of 25W @ 1155MHz, contains 2048 CUDA cores as well. if we apply it to Drake at the same frequency I’d assume that Drake would draw 18.75W, being 75% of the MX570 TGP because it has 75% of the cores.


Even if we halved that for portable mode, you’d get 9.375W just for the GPU, so I thought, “what if we moved from 10nm to the 7nm family?”
From TSMC 10nm to 7nm, it’s supposed to be a 40% power reduction while at the same clock frequency, no?


But here’s the tricky part: This isn’t easy as it’s 1) 8nm which is just an improved 10nm and 2) a different Foundries 7nm node.

Granted, it’s agreed upon that TSMC nodes are noticeably better than their Samsung equivalent, so for the sake of convenience I’ll say that a 8nm SEC is equal to a 10nm TsMC and if there was an 8nm TsMC (10nm+) it would be better than the 8nm SEC.

Anyway, “9.375W” at 8nm for the portable and “18.75” for the docked clocked profile.

If we reduce it by 40% or so in power which would align with the TSMC figure, you’d get “5.625W” in the lower clocked ~577.5MHz and “11.25W” in the docked configuration of 1155MHz.


If we drop it a little more in clock frequency to 460MHz and 921MHz respectively, we can reduce the consumption probably a little more.

Probably ~4.5W at 460MHz in portable mode and ~8.9W at 921MHz in docked mode. Docked mode is a less concern here though as that isn’t going to be so limited unlike portable mode.

In portable mode though…

Ok so, how would this compare to the TX1 though🤔🤔, the 20nm version. Do you happen to know a way of figuring that out?

And yes yes, there’s a bunch of caveats here yada yada. Just working with what we got!
all this wouldn't be necessary if you just believed in the lord and savior, TSMC 5nm
 

Serif

Bob-omb
Pronouns
He/Him
But at the end of the day, I've actually always felt some level of calm ever since the Nvidia hack. Knowing that Drake's being worked on and it being a matter of time helps me a lot. I end up not really caring that much about the when and focus more on having fun with thinking about the what and how, along with the underlying why that's behind the details of the what.
Same. While that information was obtained through unsavory means, it's still an interesting feeling to know for sure that DLSS enabled Nintendo hardware exists. I have yet to read anything that refutes this, beyond the possibility that it could be cancelled. But from what I've gleaned, this would entail a shitstorm for Nintendo and their relationship with Nvidia and third-parties...
 

CypressFX

Tektite
Why do people talk to Nate like they're Phoenix Wright? "Hmmm. Just last week you said that the console would be coming out early 2023. points to paper And yet you just said the first half of 2023. smug look Why did your story change? bangs on desk, then points It's a clear contradiction!"
Because its about that tweet, which was clearly misleading by Nate. We dont have to view Nate as some higher power in this aspect…
 
OP
OP
Dakhil

Dakhil

2010 experience points!
Founder
Why not 5 nm by Samsung ? ( could replace 7 easily ) 😘
I believe Nvidia usually secures capacity for a process node to fabricate multiple chips (e.g. Samsung's 8N process node for GA102 and onwards, TSMC's N7 process node for GA100, Nvidia Quantum-2, ConnectX-7, etc.).

I don't know what else Nvidia could have fabricate outside of Drake for the hypothetical scenario where Nvidia secures capacity for Samsung's 5LPE process node. And Nvidia has been rumoured to at least use TSMC's N5 process node family to fabricate all Ada GPUs.
 

prid

Rattata

manfromthedam

Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
I am confused. The Nikkei article has zero quotes from Furukawa on new hardware. It's literally speculation. The only quotes are about Switch production.
That, it is. In 2021, with the OLED/Drake confusion, Mochi - and plenty of others - got burned by being overly optimistic. Now they seem eager to overcompensate.

Honestly, the way this forum jumped on that vague and non-committal article - with so many people eager to say "I told you so" - was disappointing. Don't do that too often, OK Fam?

Really…
Stop this drama … things are on the way.
Nikkei could be wrong and could be right… 2023 is the max
We need to wait and enjoy what we have right now 😉
Well said.
"Skittzo was reluctant to post in the hardware thread: 'I'm on vacation and am glad I missed this nonsense and it's not worth stressing about right now.' He was bored though and decided to post anyway"
Got a source for this?
 

Thugstas

Octorok
Frankly… lots of people were angry and disrespectful toward Nate. Nothing happened yet.
Bloomberg / Nikkei / CNN / Fox News …. All made / make / will make mistakes but nobody ask them why they made it …. Why doing this with insiders!!! ( not part of this family 😁😁)
 

Dekuman

Koopa
Pronouns
He/Him/His
Just want to drop a note, i see a lot of casual commentary around Nikkei lying or not lying or Bloomberg's Mochizuki being a liar etc.
They are journalists, they have sources, they infer things from information they have. this is how Mochizuki pretty much reported on the Switch OLED but jumped to incorrect conclusions based on other information he had.

No one IIRC reporting on this is lying intentionally, reporting on industry news is their job. The way people treat these reports as if they are personally being attacked is unhealthy, and it's being fanned by bad actors as well.
 

Foltzie

Piranha Plant
Pronouns
he/him
What makes you think BOTW2 will get delayed again? They announced spring 2023 not 2023, this even means BOTW2 could launch this FY but I doubt it.
It is not a stretch to say BOTW 2 isn't making this FY, it effectively a certainty. Nintendo FY ends on March31, Spring starts March 20th. BOTW2 isn't launching in those 2 weeks.
 

Thugstas

Octorok
Just want to drop a note, i see a lot of casual commentary around Nikkei lying or not lying or Bloomberg's Mochizuki being a liar etc.
They are journalists, they have sources, they infer things from information they have. this is how Mochizuki pretty much reported on the Switch OLED but jumped to incorrect conclusions based on other information he had.

No one IIRC reporting on this is lying intentionally, reporting on industry news is their job. The way people treat these reports as if they are personally being attacked is unhealthy, and it's being fanned by bad actors as well.
Not saying they are lying but COULD make a mistake… mis transcript their sources etc…
 


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