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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

None of this hand-wringing about "launch games" matters in the slightest. The hardware, assuming it is in line with what has been speculated, will sell faster than it can be produced.
Even if it was just a PS4 to PS4 Pro type of jump it would already sell faster than it can be produced as we have seen with the OLED that forced Nintendo to air drop consoles in NA because if not they had no stock for holidays.
 
Generating the necessary motion data could be a problem, but honestly it's not really going to solve any of the problems with high rez N64 games even if it works perfectly. That's going to require some dedicated emulator hacks. Personally I'd much rather they devote the extra power towards making the textures look correct.
I’m talking about the emulation issues caused with increasing resolution, like things rendering incorrectly, if they did DLSS the base resolution could stay 720p, avoiding new issues.
 
None of this hand-wringing about "launch games" matters in the slightest. The hardware, assuming it is in line with what has been speculated, will sell faster than it can be produced.
I just find it strange that Nintendo is suddenly going back to the Game Cube philosophy of "an equal but more powerful console" for a successor. I need to see something else, new and different, to truly believe it.
It's hard to me to believe that they are going to change their philosophy after Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS and Switch.
 
None of this hand-wringing about "launch games" matters in the slightest. The hardware, assuming it is in line with what has been speculated, will sell faster than it can be produced.
The only thing that would majorly effect any device would be saying that there is no backward or forward compatibility for anything.
 
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I just find it strange that Nintendo is suddenly going back to the Game Cube philosophy of "an equal but more powerful console" for a successor. I need to see something else, new and different, to truly believe it.
It's hard to me to believe that they are going to change their philosophy after Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS and Switch.
The mistake is believing that they're internally considering it a successor.
 
I’m talking about the emulation issues caused with increasing resolution, like things rendering incorrectly, if they did DLSS the base resolution could stay 720p, avoiding new issues.
I don't think using DLSS instead of increasing the resolution is going to make a significant difference in how the issues manifest. They just have to fix the core issues.
 
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I'm surprised that new production line setup would heavily disrupt current production line setup. Testing out new molds makes sense, but would you do that by stopping all of the lines at once, or iterate through the relevant lines to confirm readiness to cutover to new manufacturing? I know just enough about this to be dangerously naive.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge about production line setup. I didn't mean to suggest a major manufacturing disruption, and have edited my post. Appreciate the input!
 
The mistake is believing that they're internally considering it a successor.
Then when they are going to do a change in the format or introduce something new? 2026, 2027? That would be so boring that my brain doesn't let me believe it.
 
Then when they are going to do a change in the format or introduce something new? 2026, 2027? That would be so boring that my brain doesn't let me believe it.
I'm thinking closer to 2028-2029 actually.

IMO what kinda makes the most sense as an evolution of the Switch concept would be a controller that can beam a cloud streamed game to any screen. Maybe that wouldn't even be ready in 2028-2029, they might need to wait on that till the late 2030s.

Maybe a foldable clamshell hybrid in 2028-2029.
 
I'm surprised that new production line setup would heavily disrupt current production line setup. Testing out new molds makes sense, but would you do that by stopping all of the lines at once, or iterate through the relevant lines to confirm readiness to cutover to new manufacturing? I know just enough about this to be dangerously naive.
I’m gonna ask @fwd-bwd , but I believe one of these isn’t correct. One of the leakers.
 
I'm thinking closer to 2028-2029 actually.

IMO what kinda makes the most sense as an evolution of the Switch concept would be a controller that can beam a cloud streamed game to any screen. Maybe that wouldn't even be ready in 2028-2029, they might need to wait on that till the late 2030s.

Maybe a foldable clamshell hybrid in 2028-2029.
Having to deal with the same joycons, the same interface and the same online service until 2028 is a nightmare for me, tbh. I want something new and exciting.
 
Having to deal with the same joycons, the same interface and the same online service until 2028 is a nightmare for me, tbh.
Good thing you'll have a new Drake Switch that will likely change some or all of those things.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge about production line setup. I didn't mean to suggest a major manufacturing disruption, and have edited my post. Appreciate the input!
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Good thing you'll have a new Drake Switch that will likely change some or all of those things.


* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
I don't really think that any revision have changed controls, online services or interface/home screen. I can only thing in that weird stick that New 3DS has.


It is difficult for me to imagine a revision that, for example, has a redesigned eshop and is different from the one on Switch.
 
I don't really think that any revision have changed controls, online services or interface/home screen.


It is difficult for me to imagine a revision that, for example, has a redesigned eshop and is different from the one on Switch.
New 3DS and DSi both changed controls and online services...

I doubt the home screen/interface will change, yeah. Or the eshop.
 
I don't really think that any revision have changed controls, online services or interface/home screen.


It is difficult for me to imagine a revision that, for example, has a redesigned eshop and is different from the one on Switch.
eShop will be the same between consoles same with most online services (but these will get updated they said they were investing almost 3b$ on them a year ago). But joycons/interface will almost for sure change with a new console
 
Having to deal with the same joycons, the same interface and the same online service until 2028 is a nightmare for me, tbh. I want something new and exciting.
Tbh Nintendo probably isn’t going to change the device up wholly. They made add features like beaming to a TV or some minor stuff to keep it relatively fresh. The only big thing I can think of is Samsun’s foldable tech but that is so expensive & out there in terms of being useful in a machine currently.

You’ll probably see more interesting stuff come out as peripherals that are additions to the machine like Labo or Ring Fit.
 
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eShop will be the same between consoles same with most online services (but these will get updated they said they were investing almost 3b$ on them a year ago). But joycons/interface will almost for sure change with a new console
That's what I'm saying, I don't expect the same level of improvement or change in a revision that in a new console. I'm totally adamant against the concept that a revision and a successor is the same, or that the public just see them as the same

I think that people know the difference between a PS4 Pro and a PS5.
 
Switch is so versatile they can experiment through the software with original use of the joycons or potential add ons or accessories like the ring con.

That's far better and less random than totally new and exotic hardware.
 
Switch is so versatile they can experiment through the software with original use of the joycons or potential add ons or accessories like the ring con.

That's far better and less random than totally new and exotic hardware.
That's a example of what I'm thinking. If they have to maintain the same size and form of joy-con because of add-ons, that's a limitation.

And if you don't change the shape, there's not much room for improvements like a new stick with less drift, dualsense, analog triggers... The kind of improvements I'd like to see.
 
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That's what I'm saying, I don't expect the same level of improvement or change in a revision that in a new console. I'm totally adamant against the concept that a revision and a successor is the same, or that the public just see them as the same

I think that people know the difference between a PS4 Pro and a PS5.
Nintendo with the Switch wanted to change the way they approached consoles and instead of the console itself being the focus of 'gimmicks' the focus is now on the user and giving them the freedom to decide what the Switch is. They do it with both the docked/handheld modes, allowing you to have a handheld or/and home console depending on what you prefer and the 'gimmicks' of the console you also choose them with most of them now being on peripherals like the ring con or LABO.
 
Nintendo with the Switch wanted to change the way they approached consoles and instead of the console itself being the focus of 'gimmicks' the focus is now on the user and giving them the freedom to decide what the Switch is. They do it with both the docked/handheld modes, allowing you to have a handheld or/and home console depending on what you prefer and the 'gimmicks' of the console you also choose them with most of them now being on peripherals like the ring con or LABO.
Well, we are not going to convince each other so we just have to wait and see what happens in the end.
 
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I question the idea that a Switch successor needing to be some completely different concept.

I fully believe Nintendo will release a second pillar mixed-reality device sometime in the future, something that can address the "isolating" nature of VR while enabling gameplay ideas impossible on the current Switch idea.

But I don't see the main bread and butter, the hybrid concept itself, going away. They can perform the whole ship of Theseus and completely improve the controllers, OS, hardware, etc. They could introduce streaming to a display, make a clamshell variant, more robust cloud gaming, adding cameras, etc.

But the very idea of a device that can seamlessly swap in and out of a mobile / desktop modes has its own innate appeal. The Switch's current form factor enables a suite of Nintendo's past features including touchscreen / vertical mode gameplay, motion controls, fitness games, VR, AR kart racing, and even toy / tool ideas like Labo and Game Builder Garage. They may be missing second screen gameplay or assymmetrical multiplayer but that could be solved with streaming tech or game design, not an entirely new device concept.

I think we'll still be playing with "a Switch" in the 2030s, but who knows how it'll feel. Maybe they'll even add a third theme and remove NSO borders /s
 
I just find it strange that Nintendo is suddenly going back to the Game Cube philosophy of "an equal but more powerful console" for a successor. I need to see something else, new and different, to truly believe it.
It's hard to me to believe that they are going to change their philosophy after Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS and Switch.
Technically, the philosophy nintendo had during that console era was “the easiest and most straightforward path to develop for”. They built the whole GCN around the idea of being very easy for devs to get handson and make use of it without being over engineered or complicated. It wasn’t necessarily surrounded around the idea of power, but around the idea of ease. What happened was that at the time it being more powerful made it easier for devs too. I don’t believe they could’ve had anything that offered a smaller jump from point A (N64) to point B(GCN) that simplified the development process, and it was a byproduct not necessarily the main exact focus, it just happened to be more powerful and that was to their benefit not to their detriment so they lost nothing from it. Even mentioning it.

GameCube is a direct response to the N64 that preceded it.


They really wanted something that simplified the process not over-complicate especially since coast of development were going up, not down. During the N64 era, they believed that because 3D games were more complex it made sense that development would be more difficult.

Here’s from Wikipedia about the GameCube:

Howard Cheng, technical director of Nintendo technology development, said the company's goal was to select a "simple RISC architecture" to help speed the development of games by making it easier on software developers. IGN reported that the system was "designed from the get-go to attract third-party developers by offering more power at a cheaper price. Nintendo's design doc for the console specifies that cost is of utmost importance, followed by space." Hardware partner ArtX's Vice President Greg Buchner stated that their guiding thought on the console's hardware design was to target the developers rather than the players, and to "look into a crystal ball" and discern "what's going to allow the Miyamoto-sans of the world to develop the best games"


We thought about the developers as our main customers. In particular, for GameCube, we spent three years working with Nintendo of America and with all sorts of developers, trying to understand the challenges, needs, and problems they face. First among these is the rising cost of development. The GameCube can see high performance without too much trouble; it isn't a quirky design, but a very clean one. It was important we didn't require jumping through hoops for high performance to be achieved. On top of that, it is rich in features, and we worked to include a dream group of technical features that developers requested.
Greg Buchner, ArtX's Vice President
 
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I hope if they do update the joycons, that the new control stick component can be easily* swapped to replace the old drifting joysticks. E-waste is certainly gonna be a huge issue as a result with everyone looking to offload their drifting controllers asap, and truthfully I'm quite content to have a rainbow selection and the Mario Odyssey controllers I imported

(*as easily as one can take apart a joycon and put it back together without snapping a ribbon cable or losing a screw)
 
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I’m gonna ask @fwd-bwd , but I believe one of these isn’t correct. One of the leakers.
None of the alleged leaks was detailed enough to depict the extent of production line changes. So I edited my original post to clarify that it might not be a sizable disruption.
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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I think that people know the difference between a PS4 Pro and a PS5.
What is functionally the difference though? New UI, sure, new controller with additional capabilities that realistically did not require a new console, and then the increased performance (including the SSD). There's no real reason why Nintendo couldn't do comparable changes within what they consider the same generation
 
What is functionally the difference though? New UI, sure, new controller with additional capabilities that realistically did not require a new console, and then the increased performance (including the SSD). There's no real reason why Nintendo couldn't do comparable changes within what they consider the same generation
It's about that but also about perception. People know that when they buy a PS5 is "the box to play new games for six years or so".

A Pro version that it's a successor with exclusives games but not really a successor seems to me like can be a 3DS/Wii U problem in messaging to the consumer.
 
It's about that but also about perception. People know that when they buy a PS5 is "the box to play new games for six years or so".

A Pro version that it's a successor with exclusives games but not really a successor seems to me like can be a 3DS/Wii U problem in messaging to the consumer.
Depends entirely on how they market it and the messaging they use, which is something we currently have zero information on.

They've been pretty good about messaging since 2016, I think they can figure it out fine.
 
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I think that, the tablet itself will be mostly the same/very little change between one and the next besides processing power and minor QoL improvements. It’s more or less fixed.

I believe Nintendo will use the Joycons and have peripherals do the experimenting muscle tbh. It allows the flexibility for it because the foundation is great, rather than making a new foundation and making others flexible for it.
 
It's about that but also about perception. People know that when they buy a PS5 is "the box to play new games for six years or so".

A Pro version that it's a successor with exclusives games but not really a successor seems to me like can be a 3DS/Wii U problem in messaging to the consumer.
I think they will try to market it like they did the switch and the 3ds, saying it's not a replacement(Right away), but another pillar to support the brand moving forward. And just slowly phase out the base models over a 2year period
 
I just find it strange that Nintendo is suddenly going back to the Game Cube philosophy of "an equal but more powerful console" for a successor. I need to see something else, new and different, to truly believe it.
It's hard to me to believe that they are going to change their philosophy after Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS and Switch.
There are multiple Factors.
Forst, the nintendo now is a different one then the nintendo back then:
new leadership, big restructuring.

Second: the market changed by a ton. the position mobile took (and kinda removed the space for lower end handhelds), the the return of PC gaming in a big way (even japanese developers are porting stuff like FF, DQ, MH and Persona to PC and PS is porting their first party stuff)

Game Streaming and Game Pass

so having a more expensive/experimental platform seems even more of a list from a value proposition perspective.

Then we should not forget where technology stands currently. the only obvious move to something that was not done yet is AR/VR from nintendos perspective.
But as it stands, there is not a big enough market of developers to support this, if nintendo then cant just have standard games. And it moves away from their promotional strategy (a lot dependent on social media, people playing together, shared experiences)

They will try AR/VR out more in the future. But at the current technology level i feel like they want to ride the switch longer till we get another breakthrough that makes a switch to a different paradigm more feasable.

Also: the Joy cons are already as universal as it gets, since you can expand their functionality (see ringfit and the bend sensor thats in the ring), and if they do a Switch Pro / 2 they can have a better interface (USB 4?) and add 2 screen gameplay back to the table.
There would only a handfull games exist that they cant port reasonably, the ones that relied on the resistive touch for pressure sensitivity (well, there are new ways for that, maybe they add a digitizer to the new switch... i dont think so, but they could, they got way cheaper), and games that relied on the IR emiter (sensor bar) for its core mechanics.

One area where there was a lot of improvement that can be used:
machine learning. and going by what we know, that WILL be in the new one.

The thing is: you can either make interesting new gameplay ideas with it (hard), but if you dont have any ideas...you can use it for graphical improvements. best of both worlds.

Its just not really a new interface if that is what you expect.
But i would hope for a backwards compatible revision of the joy cons.
 
None of the alleged leaks was detailed enough to depict the extent of production line changes. So I edited my original post to clarify that it might not be a sizable disruption.
I meant one of the leakers, I believe you said one of them isn’t actually credible?
 
eShop will be the same between consoles same with most online services (but these will get updated they said they were investing almost 3b$ on them a year ago). But joycons/interface will almost for sure change with a new console
The eShop will at least probably run much faster. Hopefully the eshop at leasts gets updated at some point to have better discoverability.
 
I think they will try to market it like they did the switch and the 3ds, saying it's not a replacement(Right away), but another pillar to support the brand moving forward. And just slowly phase out the base models over a 2year period
I think that that was DS, not 3DS. And that would be a little misleading (as it was with DS).
 
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The eShop will at least probably run much faster. Hopefully the eshop at leasts gets updated at some point to have better discoverability.
The hardwares not the problem. If they would have wanted to improve it, they could have done the last 5 years. If will run better by default, but im not even shure if their servers are not also a bottle cap.
 
The hardwares not the problem. If they would have wanted to improve it, they could have done the last 5 years. If will run better by default, but im not even shure if their servers are not also a bottle cap.
The Switch only lets the eShop use a tiny amount of its resources, that’s why it’s painfully slow.
 
Even the thought that we could get a 4K capable Switch, 4K Zelda, 4K Mario and other big Nintendo IP n 2023 makes me all nice and tingly inside. Man I hope 2023 is the year!
 
@ILikeFeet why are you saying the Switch Pro could come the absolute latest is holiday 2023, when BotW 2 is coming in spring 2023. Do you believe BotW 2 would get pushed to holiday then because Nintendo will use BotW 2 over any other game next year to launch the next switch with. They saw how effective it was and if Pro and BotW 2 are that close you might as well do it again.
 
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The Switch only lets the eShop use a tiny amount of its resources, that’s why it’s painfully slow.
Doesnt the OS get 1 core for itself and 500MB ram?
I had phones that where better in browsing back then with that.
Its not much, for shure. but since you could implement the store to run natively, and its simple structure, the most processing heavy part would be loading the content. And there i argue loading text and thumbnails should really not tay the switch that much.

But as far as i know they use the Browser, and the decision to also load following screenshots and go through them in the overview when the shop is strugling to even load the next games in the list... i dont get that, at all.
 
Summary posts like this are very helpful, thank you!

How does everyone want to handle this? There's no actual rule for maximum thread length - the General Discussion threads are rotated monthly out of tradition and so multiple people can have a go of being OP; on the other hand, the recent Direct Speculation thread passed 400 pages. Of course, you're welcome to stick to tradition and open a new thread after 400 pages. It comes down to what the community wants.
I vote for keeping the thread. It'll be even better to keep track of past discussions.
 
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Doesnt the OS get 1 core for itself and 500MB ram?
I had phones that where better in browsing back then with that.
Its not much, for shure. but since you could implement the store to run natively, and its simple structure, the most processing heavy part would be loading the content. And there i argue loading text and thumbnails should really not tay the switch that much.

But as far as i know they use the Browser, and the decision to also load following screenshots and go through them in the overview when the shop is strugling to even load the next games in the list... i dont get that, at all.
500MB is the absolute minimum, but it’s more like 750MB-1GB for the OS and 1 core.

Switch eShop is so slow because it’s not a native app, maybe it all be a native app on the succ/2/pro with enough RAM.
 
Thanks to @Vash_the_Stampede's input, I replaced the unconsolidated inventories data in my table with consolidated inventories. The data entries are also updated to bi-annual. Although Vash may very well be right that the stockpile of raw materials can be intended for the holiday stock, the very elevated level of raw materials still look suspicious to me. My comments below:

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  • Since 03/2017 (the Switch era), the money tied up in raw materials never exceeded 9% of the total inventories, except at the following points:
    • In 03/2019, before the Lite and v2 models entered production, the share of raw materials grew to 25.66%.
    • In 03/2020, the level of raw materials rose to 19.28%, possibly due to the COVID factory shutdown.
    • In 03/2021, before the OLED model entered production, the ratio went up to 14.46%. If not for the COVID logistic challenges, I suspect that the number could've been even higher.
    • In 09/2021, the share of raw materials jumped to 35.52%. A couple potential explanations:
      • Nintendo might be behind schedule to produce the holiday stock. (Furukawa did say that some of the holiday stock were shipped by plane and train.)
      • They started stockpiling raw materials to preempt any future logistic disruptions.
      • Or maybe both.
  • The latest raw materials number from 03/2022 reached an eye-popping level of 52.80%—close to $800 million USDs!
    • The large pile of materials may be in preparation of the holiday stock. However, in other years it never came close to this level.
    • Again, the stockpiling may be intended to combat the global supply chain difficulties. But tying up half of their total inventories in raw materials seems excessive.
    • Looking at the elevated level of raw materials in 03/2019 and 03/2021, it's plausible that Nintendo is again holding more materials in advance of a new model launch.
    • * Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
    • Considering the unprecedented amount of yens in raw materials, it's probably all of the above.
EDIT: Forgot to mention that Nintendo changed their accounting standard from 04/2021. Thus, their 09/2021 and 03/2022 inventories increased a bit (when compared to using the old accounting standard). It shouldn't impact the analysis because the increases are small, and affect only the finished goods (not work in progress or raw materials) if I understand it correctly. I'm not an accountant though. Note that I also made a small edit regarding the production line disruption for clarity.
Do we know how much material they were holding prior to the Switch Reveal? As if it was >50% like it is now that could be more indication.
 
Do we know how much material they were holding prior to the Switch Reveal? As if it was >50% like it is now that could be more indication.
IIRC they weren't exactly prepared for the success the Switch saw out of the gate, so I doubt they took the risk of building up too much inventory.
 
500MB is the absolute minimum, but it’s more like 750MB-1GB for the OS and 1 core.

Switch eShop is so slow because it’s not a native app, maybe it all be a native app on the succ/2/pro with enough RAM.
yeah, i mentioned that, and thats the reason why they could have improved it if they wanted, ba replacing it with a System Update with an Native App.
As it stands, it was clearly not a priotiry
 
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