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Sales Data Could 3D Kirby set sales records for the franchise? (5mil+)

How well can this Kirby sell?

  • Less than 3 million

    Votes: 3 3.1%

  • 3 million

    Votes: 11 11.3%

  • 4 million

    Votes: 21 21.6%

  • 5 million

    Votes: 28 28.9%

  • 6 million

    Votes: 18 18.6%

  • 7-9 million

    Votes: 9 9.3%

  • 10 million (outrageous pie in the sky answer)

    Votes: 7 7.2%
  • Total voters
    97
Catalyst

Catalyst

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Mainline Kirby games tend to fall within the 1-3 million range in terms of sales. The original Kirby’s Dream Land on Game Boy sold 5.13 million units, but no game since has matched its number. Kirby Star Allies is the second highest at 3.15 million.

Kirby and the Forgotten Land looks to take the series in an all new, ambitious direction. Assuming it gets good reviews, will the 3D be enough to finally get Kirby above that 5.13 million? How high will it go?
 
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EDIT: Oops skipped over a line in OP

I think it has a chance to break out, as someone who skipped the last few 2D titles regardless of their quality since they seemed very "been there". The 30fps of Star Allies was also a big stinker for me.

I do however think that a good number of people are in for a rude awakening in what they are expecting from this game (Odyssey style freedom) versus what it is (a bit more linear). That may hurt numbers.
 
The Game Industry needs more 3D platformers. I think if Nintendo markets it well, it could sell really well.
 
Almost everything sells like crazy on Switch, so yeah 3D Kirby could easily be 5m+ seller.
 
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I have no idea how Kirby games normally sell, but take the best selling Kirby and this new 3D Kirby is likely to outsell by a lot.
 
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This one is kind of a wild card to me. Part of me thinks it will sell around what Star Allies did or a little more, because Kirby is popular and has a devoted fan base, but I’m not sure if 3D will grow his brand. 3D does not always do better than 2D, especially in terms of platformers. But there’s already a lot of enthusiasm behind it so maybe it can.
 
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Gonna go bold with this one and think it'll do around 7 to 9 millions sales, going full 3D will definitely bring a bunch of new players
 
I think it's going to match Star Allies for sure, and shift around 3 million. Beyond that, though? Maybe.

I'm certainly interested in it, despite not being a fan of the series. 3D platformers are going through a bit of an upswing in the last few years, and with the absence of anything similar to Odyssey since late 2017 bar Mario re-releases (unless Nintendo drop an Odyssey 2 or 3D DK trailer in the next few months), this could be a good shot for Kirby to go more mainstream. The general similarity to Odyssey - a 3D platformer with special abilities - might be enough to catch some attention from the huge Switch audience.

With a big push from Nintendo and positive reviews/fan feedback, I think this is the best shot Kirby has had at 5 million for a while. It might also help that there's been a fairly lengthy gap after Star Allies, and so the series isn't as familiar as it became on 3DS. I think the 3 to 5 million range is quite likely, and hopefully it achieves the upper end of that.
 
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Pulled this from Reddit. This is as of September 2019 (assuming the info is correct)

7tiaa2jrlxk31.png


So far every well known Nintendo franchise seems to almost guarantee three million (hence how Star Allies is already the second best selling game). I think 3D Kirby should easily take the #2 spot on this list. Topping Dream Land is possible but I need to see more of the game before making a guess.
 
Adulfzen said:
Gonna go bold with this one and think it'll do around 7 to 9 millions sales, going full 3D will definitely bring a bunch of new players
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This is where I'm at. Kirby 3D definitely has to potential to pull 8m+ sales. It looks like it checks all the boxes. All it needs a massive marketing push from Nintendo, something akin to what Metroid Dread got.
 
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Josh5890 said:
Pulled this from Reddit. This is as of September 2019 (assuming the info is correct)

7tiaa2jrlxk31.png


So far every well known Nintendo franchise seems to almost guarantee three million (hence how Star Allies is already the second best selling game). I think 3D Kirby should easily take the #2 spot on this list. Topping Dream Land is possible but I need to see more of the game before making a guess.
Click to expand...
The Kirby Star Allies wiki page mentions this:

"The 2020 CESA Games White Papers revealed that Kirby Star Allies has sold 2.93 million units, as of December 2019."

So it's likely above 3 million at this point.
 
I absolutely adore Kirby and the entire franchise, but having poured over the trailer a number of times, I also believe the game could be less ambitious than people may be hyping it up to be, which will lead to a few "Disappointed/Expected more" impressions that could hurt sales.

...But, oh, do I want it to do well and surprise me and everyone else!
 
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SpookyTango said:
The Kirby Star Allies wiki page mentions this:

"The 2020 CESA Games White Papers revealed that Kirby Star Allies has sold 2.93 million units, as of December 2019."

So it's likely above 3 million at this point.
Click to expand...
Kirby is at 3.15 million as of June 2020.
 
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I think it's in a good spot to pass Kirby's Dream Land to be the best selling game. 3D Kirby has been anticipated for a long time, Odyssey has proven 3D platformers can outsell 2D ones, and the Switch userbase is growing expotentially. 10 million, probably not, but I could see ~7 million if the game is great.
 
Depends on the launch window. Star Allies launched in a pretty NO GAEMS time for the Switch library, it was sandwiched 3 months on each end between XC2 and Mario Tennis Aces and even then it's not like those are HUGE sellers. If it comes out a bit close to Splatoon 3 or something like that it could hurt its sales.
 
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Too early to say.

While the premise of a 3D Kirby is certainly compelling (we've been waiting for decades for this), and it has some of that 3D Mario charm, i hope the game is not one of those barebone entries.

I'm going to say yes but around 5-6 mln copies sold, not expecting a 10+ mln seller.
 
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I think it’s definitely poised to become the best selling game in the series. You can see the excitement and hype for this game online that the Kirby series has never really had before. If the game is good I don’t see why it wouldn’t be able to do >5 Million and overtake the original Dream Land.
 
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I think it can do better than whay traditional 2D Kirby games usually do but I don't think it'd go much beyond that as there doesn't seem to be anything to hook in folk whom didn't care much for Kirby before
 
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Mekanos said:
I think it's in a good spot to pass Kirby's Dream Land to be the best selling game. 3D Kirby has been anticipated for a long time, Odyssey has proven 3D platformers can outsell 2D ones, and the Switch userbase is growing expotentially. 10 million, probably not, but I could see ~7 million if the game is great.
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It did? If Switch had a brand new 2D Mario, that would be a lock for a 30 million seller. At this point that only thing that would stop it would be the Switch dying before it could rack up the sales.
 
It’s crazy how KDL sold over 5 million and none after came close. Almost makes KDL like an outlier and now this game has to outsell that outlier lol.
 
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HK-47 said:
It did? If Switch had a brand new 2D Mario, that would be a lock for a 30 million seller. At this point that only thing that would stop it would be the Switch dying before it could rack up the sales.
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Odyssey outsold NSMBU with both Wii U and Switch versions combined, but you could perhaps argue NSMB fatigue played a role in that.
 
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Unless it sucks, Forgotten Land is gonna be the recordbreaker.

I'm pretty confident, actually.
 
0
It can do 3m+ for sure, but for it to reach 5m it will need a lot of marketing. I don’t think Kirby 3D can pull 5m on it’s name alone.
 
0
I’m crazy and voted 10+

3D sells better than 2D, and Luigi’s Mansion 3 is a 10 million+ game. I think it depends on quality and reviews. Five is probably the floor.
 
too many unknown factors to take into account this early in and without knowing exactly when it releases , how it’s marketed further and how the shift to 3d turns out and for that reason I’m gonna play it safe and go all in baby , 10m, to the moon!
 
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I voted for 6m because I think it will be well marketed and seems really ambitious in scope. Can get people outside its niche in. Maybe even 7m or more is feasible.
 
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Red Monster said:
I’m crazy and voted 10+

3D sells better than 2D, and Luigi’s Mansion 3 is a 10 million+ game. I think it depends on quality and reviews. Five is probably the floor.
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I’m a little surprised some are skeptical. It’s the Switch. We’ve seen what the power of the Switch fanbase can do + this is a 3D Kirby. I’ve definitely seen many people say they are interested in this Kirby game and they rarely play Kirby games.
 
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This is really hard to say. Kirby is already incredibly popular in Japan with that country basically carrying Star Allies. I have to wonder how they will receive a 3D Kirby there because that will have a big impact on the bottom line.

Kirby does have a lot of room to grow in the west however. I'm going to be conservative and say 3.5m lifetime for this game but it has the potential to be bigger for sure. If 3D Kirby does blow up, it would mark a pretty significant change in tastes in the market towards a preference for 3D platformers, especially coming off Odyssey which became the best selling 3D Mario game.
 
It's a game that seems to appeal to virtually everyone. It's a 3D platformer with a very charismatic character. It looks great. And it's on the Switch. Unless it reviews poorly and it's not properly marketed, it has all the elements of a major, major success. I'm getting big LM3 vibes from it
 
Obviously we need to see more, but if it reviews reasonably well then it will probably be pretty huge. Star Allies made it over 3m with pretty mediocre reviews.
 
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Mediocre Star Allies did over 3 mil and it released with a much smaller base in early 2018. Yeah this will clear 5 mil easily.
 
0
Definitely gonna go above 5 mil. HAL has been very confident that this game is gonna be good.
 
the main thing preventing kirby from breaking out is critical success. most of them float around the high 70s and low 80s (https://www.metacritic.com/search/game/kirby/results?sort=score), which is fine and good for something like kirby or a paper mario looking to chill at around 1.5-2 million units. there's some spectacle here in kirby's first 3d game that will draw a lot more attention than usual, but it probably won't break out of its usual sales range. 3 million feels about right.
 
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I find it fascinating that Kirby never have a strong seller beyond the first game, so because this game is looking to take it into a new direction, it would probably be a better selling point compared to Star Allies, which I was never interested at all (going to wait for it to become a Selects-equivalent title). Perhaps this game may do well, so I voted that it would be the next-best title except the original is still the king.

Thank you for reading.
 
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Depending on when it releases and how polished it is.
 
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Moltres006 said:
If it does 8-10 million.....would that make the death of 2d Kirby?
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I don't think so. Ideally we could get both, or they could alternate, but I doubt 2D Kirby dies forever. I am curious how much bigger the development team is for this game compared to 2D Kirby, though.
 
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I have a feeling it won't reach the heights that mainline 2D Kirby did with Dream Land, but it should at reach near 3 million.
 
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totofogo said:
EDIT: Oops skipped over a line in OP

I think it has a chance to break out, as someone who skipped the last few 2D titles regardless of their quality since they seemed very "been there". The 30fps of Star Allies was also a big stinker for me.

I do however think that a good number of people are in for a rude awakening in what they are expecting from this game (Odyssey style freedom) versus what it is (a bit more linear). That may hurt numbers.
Click to expand...
If it gives me tight Galaxy levels with focused platforming then I'll be incredibly happy because Odyssey felt like it lacked tight level design because it had open spaces.
 
AquaWateria said:
If it gives me tight Galaxy levels with focused platforming then I'll be incredibly happy because Odyssey felt like it lacked tight level design because it had open spaces.
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I think Odyssey has a lot more in common with Galaxy over 64 or Sunshine honestly. Sure you have open spaces, but if you look at most of the main moons as well as the interior areas (you know, the ones with the misty backgrounds and the annoying remix of underground theme), well these have basically the kind of level design you would expect of Galaxy. So Odyssey was basically some open areas that somewhat resemble your generic open world game, but the areas that actually contain most of the moons are basically Galaxy levels with focused platforming. That’s why I honestly don’t think it was a proper successor to 64 or Sunshine, those games’ level design were basically very dense and memorable areas that didn’t even need a map screen. They also have hub worlds as well as more adventure game elements, in those games you have to figure out what to do for each star or shine, those objectives are usually very well scenarized. Meanwhile in Odyssey besides the main objectives, the other moons to collect usually follow predictable patterns.

On the topic of Kirby, if his game actually gets good reviews (like over 85 MC) it could easily be a multimillion seller as he is a very popular character notably thanks to Smash. I don’t know what type of 3D platformer it would be, I don’t expect it to fill the void in terms of adventure platformers that even Odyssey couldn’t do but 3D platformers are still one of my favorite genres, as long as the game isn’t super easy and boring like other Kirby games it should be fine. (Sorry, Epic Yarn is one of the rare games that made me feel sleepy. Super Star is apparently the best one and even that is a 40 minute campaign featuring a minigame collection)
 
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Gartooth said:
This is really hard to say. Kirby is already incredibly popular in Japan with that country basically carrying Star Allies. I have to wonder how they will receive a 3D Kirby there because that will have a big impact on the bottom line.

Kirby does have a lot of room to grow in the west however. I'm going to be conservative and say 3.5m lifetime for this game but it has the potential to be bigger for sure. If 3D Kirby does blow up, it would mark a pretty significant change in tastes in the market towards a preference for 3D platformers, especially coming off Odyssey which became the best selling 3D Mario game.
Click to expand...
Yeah, if Japan doesn’t like the shift, that could hamper the game. It is a landmark for the series though which should at least balance out any potential loss in the traditional audience.
 
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