• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

Pre-Release The Super Mario Bros. Movie Pre-Release Discussion Thread (Now releasing April 5th in the US)

Final Worldwide Box Office Predictions

  • Less than $300 million (Absolute Flop)

    Votes: 2 1.6%

  • $300-450 million (in line with other video game adaptations)

    Votes: 4 3.2%

  • $450-700 million (best video game adaptation, in line with other recent animated films)

    Votes: 26 21.0%

  • $700 million-1 billion (higher tier for all but the biggest hits

    Votes: 43 34.7%

  • $1-1.3 billion (Top 10 highest grossing animated film of all time, Illumination’s biggest success)

    Votes: 34 27.4%

  • $1.3-1.6 billion (Frozen tier)

    Votes: 9 7.3%

  • 1.6 billion+ (unseats the Lion King remake as the most successful animated movie of all time)

    Votes: 6 4.8%
  • Total voters
    124
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Reader mode
Multiverse said:
It’s not speculation. The folks at BOT (Box Office Theory) have been tracking the movie. The pre-sale is huge. It’s performing like a solo MCU movie. It’s going to break both video games and illumination opening records possibly more. Tracking has it at 130 million opening right now. That’s massive for an animated movie.
Click to expand...
considering the state of the mcu right now, that is very worrying. Lets not hope it does a quantum turn and has a 90% drop haha.
 
Mr Doggo said:
considering the state of the mcu right now, that is very worrying. Lets not hope it does a quantum turn and has a 90% drop haha.
Click to expand...
Animated movies don‘t have huge openings (unless you’re a recent Pixar movie even their old ones don’t open big) but rather strong legs. Mario opening big is a surprise in many ways. For animated movies and video games movies.

A lot of people were assuming a Sonic 2 or slightly better Detective Pikachu level hit before the pre-sale. This is WAY beyond that.
 
Multiverse said:
Animated movies don‘t have huge openings (unless you’re a recent Pixar movie even their old ones don’t open big) but rather strong legs. Mario opening big is a surprise in many ways. For animated movies and video games movies.

A lot of people were assuming a Sonic 2 or slightly better Detective Pikachu level hit before the pre-sale. This is WAY beyond that.
Click to expand...
i think that 400 million was always going to be an absurd take. It is a plain mario film not an spin off like detective pikachu. More reasonable would be around 600 to 700 million.
 
0
Multiverse said:
Animated movies don‘t have huge openings (unless you’re a recent Pixar movie even their old ones don’t open big) but rather strong legs. Mario opening big is a surprise in many ways. For animated movies and video games movies.

A lot of people were assuming a Sonic 2 or slightly better Detective Pikachu level hit before the pre-sale. This is WAY beyond that.
Click to expand...
People comparing it to other video game movies instead of other Illumination movies were always doing bad analysis imo. Detective Pikachu/Sonic 2 level success is Illuminations worse performing movie.
 
Dardan Sandiego said:
I expect it to clear $1b assuming they're smart enough to have a Rosalina K. Rool post-credit scene.
Click to expand...
If there's no Rosalina then I won't be buying a ticket a second time (as I already have my ticket for opening weekend in imax), simple as that.
 
0
I definitely think it'll do $1+ billion. Early projections are very good and many comparisons to Minions 2 ($940 million) and Frozen 2 ($1.4 billion) are being made which also bodes well for a billion. It's a family movie so it'll have very strong legs regardless. Families also love illumination movies! Trailers generate loads of buzz and continue to be talked about. The mario brand is very strong too. Many people who don't even play video games are expressing their interest to watch the movie. It is also a 4 quadrant movie based on projections so it is doing well with everyone. Many have speculated that this could be one of, if not, the biggest movie of the year.
 
Last edited:
0
A billion is a lot for a movie post-COVID even the Black Panther sequel didn't sniff 1 billion. If it can do that it would be great, but that's probably a high bar.

Minions 2 is a sequel and the Minions had been in several films, Frozen 2 is the sequel to maybe the biggest animated hit of the last 10+ years, so those are pretty steep comparisons.
 
Last edited:
Just for reference this is what other recent video game movies have done (worldwide box office):

Detective Pikachu - $433 million
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $405 million
Uncharted - $401 million
Angry Birds The Movie - $352 million
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - $317 million
Sonic the Hedgehog 1 - $307 million
Tomb Raider (2018) - $274 million
Mortal Kombat (2021) - $83 million
 
0
Machrider said:
A billion is a lot for a movie post-COVID even the Black Panther sequel didn't sniff 1 billion. If it can do that it would be great, but that's probably a high bar.

Minions 2 is a sequel and the Minions had been in several films, Frozen 2 is the sequel to maybe the biggest animated hit of the last 10+ years, so those are pretty steep comparisons.
Click to expand...
A movie like Black Panther is very US centric. The advantage the Mario Movie could have is its worldwide reach. The movie could be big pretty much anywhere.
 
Charamiwa said:
A movie like Black Panther is very US centric. The advantage the Mario Movie could have is its worldwide reach. The movie could be big pretty much anywhere.
Click to expand...

The first Black Panther did $650 million internationally (outside of the US) ... that's not a small amount. Like a billion would be great but lets be realistic.

There's only three movies that have topped 1 billion since COVID ... Spider-Man, Top Gun Maverick, and Avatar WoW.

Movies like No Time To Die (last 007 movie), the most recent Fast & Furious movie, the last Batman, and all non-Spider-Man Marvel films in that time have failed to hit 1 billion ... it's not an easy bar to hit anymore.
 
Yeah, I think people predicting $1B are being more than a bit optimistic. While the competition may be light for Mario, it takes a lot of factors to get a movie into the Billion range, and in this post COVID world, the variables are even tighter.

Cheetah6442 said:
??? No, it's not.
Click to expand...

Film franchise.
 
Machrider said:
The first Black Panther did $650 million internationally (outside of the US) ... that's not a small amount. Like a billion would be great but lets be realistic.
Click to expand...
$650m isn't a small amount but it's incredibly rare for domestic haul alone to outgross international haul for major movie blockbusters. Not even Top Gun Maverick accomplished that. The box office haul of both Black Panther films are a very big outlier in how box office traditionally leans.

Black Panther 2 in general is also probably not the best comparison to use, it's a very non-conventional follow-up to the predecessor and the lack of Boseman made it a very difficult film to sell the audience on. The fact that Doctor Strange 2 outperformed it despite both being post-COVID releases and Strange being a smaller entity in cinema is just telling of how much of a hill BP2 had to climb, and the only reason Strange 2 failed to hit a billion at all was because word of mouth in the immediate aftermath completely destroyed its second weekend before it had a slow path to rebounding.

The 007 and F&F IPs were already on downtrends before their latest entries, having to release in post-COVID probably didn't help their prospects entirely. F9 in particular had pretty weak WoM, a B+ Cinemascore is a meddlesome sign for a blockbuster.

As much as it's harder to hit $1b in post-COVID, a lot of films that don't hit that bar is usually through some fault of their own. Nowadays with streaming being more proliferated, the type of films that cross a billion tend to be event films like Top Gun Maverick, Spider-Man, and Avatar.

The jury's out on if Mario will be able to have the type of family film legs to sustain its seeming blockbuster level opening it's tracking for, but I think the novelty of it may propel it. If a Minions 2 level performance is what we can expect from it, then a billion is a distinction without a difference.
 
Decoyman said:
$650m isn't a small amount but it's incredibly rare for domestic haul alone to outgross international haul for major movie blockbusters. Not even Top Gun Maverick accomplished that. The box office haul of both Black Panther films are a very big outlier in how box office traditionally leans.

Black Panther 2 in general is also probably not the best comparison to use, it's a very non-conventional follow-up to the predecessor and the lack of Boseman made it a very difficult film to sell the audience on. The fact that Doctor Strange 2 outperformed it despite both being post-COVID releases and Strange being a smaller entity in cinema is just telling of how much of a hill BP2 had to climb, and the only reason Strange 2 failed to hit a billion at all was because word of mouth in the immediate aftermath completely destroyed its second weekend before it had a slow path to rebounding.

The 007 and F&F IPs were already on downtrends before their latest entries, having to release in post-COVID probably didn't help their prospects entirely. F9 in particular had pretty weak WoM, a B+ Cinemascore is a meddlesome sign for a blockbuster.

As much as it's harder to hit $1b in post-COVID, a lot of films that don't hit that bar is usually through some fault of their own. Nowadays with streaming being more proliferated, the type of films that cross a billion tend to be event films like Top Gun Maverick, Spider-Man, and Avatar.

The jury's out on if Mario will be able to have the type of family film legs to sustain its seeming blockbuster level opening it's tracking for, but I think the novelty of it may propel it. If a Minions 2 level performance is what we can expect from it, then a billion is a distinction without a difference.
Click to expand...

Just casually saying Minions 2 is a bit of a stretch too ... Minions by that point had been in multiple wildly successful movies, building an audience each time.

Hitting a billion post-COVID IMO is more like hitting 1.2 billion pre-COVID, it's definitely harder now.

If Mario can do even 750 million+ ... that would be a large success I think. You're talking about a first run at the franchise in this form already doing numbers that franchises like Bond, F&F, Batman, Thor, etc. are doing.

We're talking about a movie with maybe a $80 million production budget too, as that is about the standard for Illumination CG films (they make their movies on a lower budget than others), and then probably another $80-$90 million in marketing spend, a 750 mill box office take is a massive profit.
 
Last edited:
0
I'm sure for Nintendo, the box office is only a drop of what they're thinking about. I wanna see how this impacts the NPD for April.
 
I'm cautiously optimistic that the film will reach a billion, but it's definitely not a certainty. Films that make that much are still the exception, not the rule.
 
0
I’m not comfortable predicting $1b yet but my opinion is that if this has good reviews/WOM, the sky is the limit. Mario is a powerful brand, is this is a giant step for it. Will be huge if done right
 
It would be splendid if the movie does more than a billion, but I am going to make a safe estimate of being in the range slightly below it. Such a bar is understandably high for video game movie standards, but Illumination running the show makes it favorable. I would imagine if this film reaches great heights, then the studio would become a lucrative partner even if it's not fully understood that a serious collaborative effort is needed between both parties.

Thank you for reading.
 
0
Reader mode
Status
Not open for further replies.


Back
Top Bottom